Formal Introduction
Hello there! You may have noticed that I am not Dr. Jene Bramel. In case you missed it, my name is Adam Hutchison, and I am one of the new additions to the Footballguys network. I am a full-time Physical Therapist, a fantasy football enthusiast, and lucky enough to spearhead this column in addition to Monday Injury Rounds.
If you were a Dr. Bramel fan (first off, you have excellent taste) and are nervous about someone new infiltrating your start/sit decisions - fear not. Along with my experience as a health care provider, I have been committed to providing actionable/streamlined injury information for fantasy managers. I do some with my injury database, which is a nice reference point for injuries by using historical comps.
Now, enough of the formalities. Let's get to the important stuff.
Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel)
The injury report released by the NFL is two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games).
In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectation of their likelihood to play.
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure you circle back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
- TE Mark Andrews
- WR Romeo Doubs
- WR Adam Thielen
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson
- TE Darren Waller
- WR Marquise Brown
Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)
Trending Probable (Expected to Play)
- TE George Kittle
- RB Breece Hall
- WR Jerry Jeudy
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Eligible to return from injured reserve
- N/A
Ruled Out
- WR Christian Watson (hamstring)
- WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring)
- WR John Metchie III (hamstring)
- WR D.J. Chark Jr (hamstring)
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
Key:
Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Footballguys Expectation
George Kittle | Groin | Questionable | Likely Active
George Kittle has been nursing a groin injury since the 10th of August. The average time missed for NFL TEs with a groin strain is ~2 weeks, and like Darren Waller above, Kittle also dealt with a groin injury last season and missed 2 weeks as well. We are currently 4 weeks since we were first made aware of Kittle's injury, and given the two data points above, I think there is a decent chance that Kittle will suit up on Sunday even though he logged limited practice sessions all week. The former Hawkeye always seems to be banged up but typically undershoots the expected injury timeline by playing through injuries. Managers who invested in Kittle should have some optimism heading into Week 1.
Sunday Update: George Kittle is expected to play. With all the injuries to the TE landscape, he should be started in nearly all lineups.
Mark Andrews | Quadriceps | Questionable | Likely Active
Earlier this week, Mark Andrews was not at Ravens team practices, making the fantasy community as a whole nervous about his gameday status. Baltimore head coach Jim Harbaugh told us not to worry, and I think there may have been truth to his words.
Andrews was limited all week, and although there is not a lot of clarity on whether he is nursing a quadriceps strain or quadriceps contusion, I am not sure it matters all that much. The average time missed for these types of injuries is less than one week. 70% of the time that Andrews has popped up on the final injury report, he has suited up for that game. Additionally, since 2017, 82% of the Raven's fantasy-relevant players who have been listed as questionable have played, which ranks in the top third for NFL teams. All signs point to Andrews playing Week 1.
Sunday Update: A bit of a surprise, Ian Rapoport has reported that Mark Andrews will likely not play, although the Ravens have not officially ruled him out. Based on this information it does seem like Andrews is dealing with a quadriceps strain. He was able to practice in a limited capacity this week, and based on this information combined with typical healing times, Week 2 seems likely.
Adam Thielen | Ankle | Questionable | 50/50
If Adam Thielen was not 33 years old, I would say that the chances of him playing Sunday were more likely. However, as we all know, Father Time is undefeated. There is enough evidence that supports older WRs requiring longer recovery times and, in some instances, missing more games when injured. Thielen did practice in a limited role on Friday, leaving the door open for him to start, but he is another player who is truly 50/50 this week.
Saturday Update: Thielen is set to play Sunday per Cameron Wolfe.
Cordarrelle Patterson | Thigh | Questionable | Likely Active
The "thigh" injury label is a vague description of what Cardarrelle Patterson is dealing with heading into Week 1. It could be a quadriceps issue (relatively minor) or a groin issue (typically more serious). Both of these injuries typically result in at least one game missed, with more than 55% of the RB sample missing time. The fact that Patterson practiced all week, although limited, suggests that he plays, but I am not sure he is fantasy-relevant given the circumstances. Bijan Robinson was a top-10 NFL pick, and as a rookie, Tyler Allgier flashed. Tack on the injury, and that's three strikes against Patterson for Week 1. I'd stay away regardless of whether he plays or not.
Marquise Brown | Hamstring | Questionable | 50/50
Another WR - another hamstring injury. Marquise Brown was limited all week with a hamstring injury. Based on his practice participation, I would anticipate he starts this week and is in flex consideration.
Sunday Update: Marquise Brown will start Sunday. I discussed in Jerry Jeudy's section that WRs typically do not fare well right after hamstring injury, but Arizona does not have many passing options. Expect Brown to be heavily involved.
Kendre Miller | Hamstring | Questionable | Likely Inactive
The rookie running back Kendre Miller had a tumultuous offseason. After starting on the PUP, Miller sprained his MCL, returned to action, looked good, and now winds up on the injury report with a hamstring strain. Technically, Miller has already been dealing with this injury for a week, but RBs miss, on average 3 weeks with a hamstring injury, and he has not practiced all week. I'd expect the soonest we see Miller is Week 3. Those who were hoping the rookie might pop with Kamara out for the first three weeks are going to be disappointed. This is Jamaal Williams' backfield now.
Sunday Update: Per NFL Insider Jordan Schultz, Miller is not expected to play.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST Games
Romeo Doubs | Hamstring | Questionable | 50/50
Unlike his counterpart Christian Watson, there is a glimmer of hope that Romeo Doubs is able to play through his hamstring strain. Green Bay has not officially ruled Doubs out. It is promising that Doubs was able to get in two limited practices at the end of this week, but on average, NFL WRs miss 2.5 weeks with a hamstring strain, with only 20% of them not missing any time at all.
Looking at the numbers, even if Doubs starts, it could be more out of necessity than him actually being ready to play. Even in deeper leagues, I would be looking elsewhere for a more reliable fantasy starter, especially with the later kick-off time.
Sunday Update: Romeo Doubs will play on a "snap count", further increasing my skepticism about entering him into fantasy lineups.
Jerry Jeudy | Hamstring | Questionable | Likely Active
Initial reports about Jerry Jeudy's hamstring injury placed him on a 4-6 week recovery timeline. Surprisingly, Jeudy was able to practice this week and looked good on video.
Not going to lie this is promising for Jeudy. The initial reports pointed to grade II hamstring strain suggesting ~6 weeks
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) September 7, 2023
We'll never know the grade but this is looking like merely grade I which points to avg time missed 2.5. Week 2 seems more likely pic.twitter.com/NNIy4L9faz
Should we see Jeudy dress (signs are pointing to him doing so), I'd be hesitant to start him in fantasy lineups. WRs tend to see a 22% dip in fantasy production their first game back. This decline can be for a variety of reasons, one of which being limited snaps. Depending on when your fantasy draft was, you may have selected Jeudy at an ADP discount. Consider your options carefully before starting Jeudy this week.
Sunday Update: Adam Schefter reported early this morning that Jeudy is "not expected to play." Denver activated two WRs from their practice team, which also hinted at Jeudy's availability in Week 1. We'll monitor this situation next week.
Rhamondre Stevenson | Stomach | Questionable | Likely Active
Rhamondre Stevenson was not present at the Patriots' practice Friday, but it was not due to injury. Stevenson is reportedly dealing with a stomach bug. He should play Sunday, but you will want to check back in Sunday morning to see if he is on the mend.
Sunday Update: Stevenson is set to start Sunday.
Sunday Night / 7:20 PM EST Game
Darren Waller | Hamstring | Questionable | 50/50
It is never a good sign when a player is a late addition to the injury report. After a normal week of practice without any injury designation, Waller popped up on the Gaints' report with a hamstring injury. Word on the Twitter/X streets is that this is not a new injury for Waller; he was experiencing soreness earlier in the week and logged limited practice on Friday. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported that there may be some optimism that Waller will be able to suit up Sunday night.
From @SportsCenter a bit ago, Darren Waller's hamstring injury is not believed to be serious and the Giants are hopeful he can play Sunday night vs. Dallas, per source. No firm determination yet. Team will likely monitor through the weekend.
— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) September 8, 2023
It is worth mentioning that Waller missed 10 games last year with a hamstring injury, although it is unclear if this week's injury is the same leg. Last season, every time Waller was listed as Questionable on the final injury report, he did not play. Because Waller plays late Sunday, making a contingency plan for your lineups is going to be pivotal. There is enough doubt in my mind that I personally think the odds of Waller playing are 50/50.
Sunday Update: Darren Waller defined all odds and will suit up Sunday. I think there is a possibility he is limited to some degree but if you roster him he is an auto start.
Monday Night Game
Breece Hall | Knee/ACL Recovery | Questionable | Likely Active
Breece Hall is expected to play Week 1 but on a "snap count." I have written extensively on RBs coming off ACL Reconstruction (ACLR) and how it impacts performance - "Are These Injured Players Safe to Draft?". Running backs who do well after ACLR typically do so with a big workload since there is a decline in efficiency. Hall is another player that I would prefer to wait and see before putting him in fantasy lineups.
A Note On Players Already Ruled Out
NFL wide receivers typically miss 2.5 weeks with a hamstring strain, with >40% missing at least 1-2 weeks.
Cooper Kupp
We are officially on Cooper Kupp IR watch after the WR suffered a setback to his previously injured hamstring. WRs over the age of 28 who re-injured their hamstring missed an additional 3-4 weeks. If Kupp somehow avoids IR, he still might not return until Week 4.
Saturday Update: Kupp was placed on IR Saturday afternoon. The soonest he can return is Week 5.
Christian Watson
I sometimes get this question about how different injuries affect different players with varying skill sets different. It's an intriguing question and something I wanted to dive into it a little deeper. Filtering out WRs who profile as field stretchers with a sub 4.4 40-yard dash miss almost one more week and have a slightly higher risk of re-injury. This opens up a debate on physiology and fast-twitch muscle fibers, but I will spare you the nerd talk. These are just some interesting points to keep in mind with Christian Watson