How are you feeling? If you find yourself here, your fantasy team might not be holding up so well. Before we even made it to Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, we witnessed the injuries piling up and in order to stay true to form, the Week 1 slate did not hold back with injuries. Fortunately, I am here to help you. So pull up those bootstraps, and let's dive into these injuries. Your fantasy season is not over after one week. Use the content below to make adjustments.
Key:
(Position) Player | Injury | My Projection for Return to Play
RB J.K. Dobbins | Achilles Tendon Rupture | Injured Reserve (expected) - Season Ending
After a strong finish to the 2022 season that parlayed into a promising start in 2023, J.K. Dobbins' season is very likely to be over. The Ravens' RB should end up on IR.
In Dobbin's absence, Justice Hill broke paydirt twice, but moving forward, one would expect Gus Edwards to be involved. Baltimore also has Melvin Gordon on their practice squad, and free agents Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette are always looming. Essentially, if you are going to take a shot on this backfield, there are a lot of options. The main takeaway is that if you roster Dobbins, you're going to have to look elsewhere for running back production.
Let's go a bit further and discuss Dobbins' 2024 outlook. With just the preliminary information that we have, I don't think it's great. Whatever burst his ACL did not take, the Achilles tendon rupture surely won't help. Recently, we witnessed Cam Akers return successfully from an Achilles tendon repair, but Dobbins' build and skill set are different. Hopefully, Dobbins can return at some point, but right now, his outlook is not promising.
Tuesday Update: Dobbins is set to have surgery Friday. Baltimore has officially placed Dobbins on IR. Baltimore has said they are staying in-house with the RB replacement.
WR Jakobi Meyers | Concussion | Projecting Week 3 Return
Jakobi Meyers sustained a nasty blow to the head during a crossing route in Las Vegas' match-up with Denver. You can't grade concussions, and every single concussion is different. The presentation varies, and how a person responds post-concussion is different in each scenario. Since 2017, 62% of wide receivers have missed at least one game following a concussion. Unless Meyers is able to breeze through the post-concussion protocol, I'd expect him to miss at least Week 2 with a better chance of returning in Week 3.
RB Aaron Jones | Hamstring Strain | Projecting Week 3 Return
One a breakaway touchdown run, Aaron Jones reached back and grabbed his left hamstring as he stepped into the end zone. It's never anything Packer or fantasy managers want to see. After the game, Jones hinted that the hamstring injury was not as serious as it was perceived, despite him not returning.
Aaron Jones says he felt his hamstring bite at end of his touchdown catch. He pulled his hamstring before. He says it was nowhere near that bad.
— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) September 11, 2023
Jones didn't return, but he says score had lot to do with it. He could have if needed, he says.
Much like wide receivers, running backs also, on average, miss ~3 weeks with a hamstring injury, but if we are taking Jones' word for it, he could be back much sooner.
Follow Green Bay's practice reports this week. 42% of RBs who were listed as Questionable on the final injury report ended up not playing that week.
Tuesday Update: Matthew Schneidman reports that Green Bay HC Matt LaFleur told reporters the team is "evaluating Aaron Jones’ hamstring but that it was encouraging seeing him jogging off the field." LaFleur also "mentioned how Packers had the luxury of not having to use Jones after the injury." That last statement is eyebrow-raising. Even though Jones injury could be minor with A.J Dillion in the backfield and a long 17-game season, the Packers could give Jones a week to heal up.
RB Austin Ekeler | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 3 Return
Monday afternoon Chargers Head Coach Brandon Staley told reporters that Austin Ekeler is dealing with an ankle injury. If we're assuming this is not a high ankle sprain the average time that RBs is is ~2 weeks. Although the data suggests it should not be a lengthy absence, of the 15 most common RB injuries I've examined ankle sprains have the 3rd highest risk of re-injury.
With all of that in mind, it would not be surprising to see Joshua Kelley involved again even if Ekeler plays in Week 2. Kelley played 48% of the Chargers' snaps in Week 1 and for a while now Ekeler has been vocal about wanting another RB to share the workload with him. Kelley would be the top of my waiver claims this week.
Tuesday Update: Still no word on the extent of the Austin Ekeler ankle injury. There is some speculation that it could be a possible high ankle sprain. I can't speak to the specifics on whether or not that is the case however I will say if Ekeler was to have a high ankle sprain that would be an issue. Ekeler's time missed would jump to 4 weeks and his rest of season fantasy production would take ~20% dip. I remain steadfast in my take that Joshua Kelley should be the #1 waiver add in all leagues, regardless of size/format.
WR Diontae Johnson | Hamstring strain | Projecting Week 4 Return
Diontae Johnson pulled up lame during a run after the catch and immediately afterward grabbed his right hamstring. You'll often hear me say this: "Video is never diagnostic." I can't diagnose injury/severity from video…no one can. With that said, based on Johnson's reaction, this injury did seem serious and one that I would expect to result in missed time.
On average, NFL wide receivers miss 2.5 weeks with a hamstring injury, with >42% (50 of the 119 NFL wideouts I've sampled from 2017-2022) missing at least 1-2 weeks with a hamstring strain. Additionally, WRs who did miss at least one week saw a minimal impact on fantasy performance upon return, while those who did not miss any time suffered a 22% dip in fantasy points compared to their healthy average.
In short, I expect Johnson to miss time. If you roster him, you should want him to heal up and return to form. If you drafted George Pickens, relish this time when there's minimal competition for targets.
Tuesday Update: Per Adam Schefter Diontae Johnson is "expected to be sidelined a few weeks." This basically aligns with my initial synopsis of Johnson. If he can avoid the IR there is a strong possibility he is back by Week 5 at the latest.
TE Pat Freiermuth | Chest Injury | Projecting Week 2 Return
Pat Freiermuth sustained a chest injury Sunday. He missed some of the game before returning to catch a touchdown and then exiting again. The fact that Freiermuth was able to return to game action suggests that a rib fracture is not likely. It's more probable that the Steeler TE has bruised ribs/sternum. This injury can be very painful, but players can play through it. Freiermuth might not practice early in the week and log some limited practices later, but there is a good chance he suits up next week.
QB Anthony Richardson | Knee Injury | Projecting Week 2 Return
If there was any debate about mobile QBs being more injury-prone, Anthony Richardson set out to try and settle the argument once and for all in Week 1. The former Gator rushed 10 times and, as of Sunday night, finished top-5 for his position. Unfortunately, this came with a cost. Richardson injured his knee late in the game while trying to run for a TD and did no return.
Richardson is very likely dealing with a knee contusion. He should play in Week 2 although he may be less likely to tuck the ball and run.
WR Chris Olave | Leg/Calf Injury | Projecting Week 2 Return
Chris Olave injured his lower leg Sunday, and although he missed some snaps, he did not appear to be overly affected. Olave finished the day with 8 receptions for 112 yards. By video, it was hard to tell exactly what caused Olave some discomfort, but it could have been a calf contusion or a minor calf strain. Don't be surprised to see Olave pop up on the injury report this week, but I wouldn't panic.
TE Greg Dulcich| Hamstring Strain | Projecting Week 6 Return
Greg Dulcich exited Sunday with a "leg injury", but the Broncos have not provided any specifics as of Monday morning. There is some indication that it could be a hamstring issue - an injury Dulcich is all too familiar with, as he started 2022 on IR with the same type of injury. Should this be a hamstring issue, I'd expect Dulcich to miss two to three weeks as my database shows very few tight ends miss no time at all. We'll wait for Denver to give us the final word and then update his projection once there is some clarity.
Tuesday Update: Greg Dulcich is going to miss multiple weeks per the latest report. There are indications that this is the same hamstring he injured last year. I would not be surprised to see him on IR. Adam Trautman should be a serviceable TE in Dulcich's absence with a consolidated target share.
RB Kenneth Gainwell| Rib Injury | Projecting Week 2 Return
Kenneth Gainwell popped up on the injury report Monday afternoon with a rib injury. Assuming there is not a fracture, he could play in Week 2. Rib bruises/contusions come down to pain tolerance, with the RB position where blows to the trunk and getting frequently tackled can be tricky. Should Gainwell sit next week I would not expect this injury to sideline him any longer than that.
Tuesday Update: Gainwell did not practice Monday or Tuesday. To feel good about him suiting up Week 2 a limited practice would be ideal Thursday/Friday. Track this situation closely.