Fantasy Overview - Week 2

Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season has come and gone. It's important to take note of different storylines and situations, but it's also important not to overreact to some of these circumstances and occurrences. Let's dig deep and try to decipher some clarity in this wonderful hobby of ours.

Chasing points is real, and it's a slippery slope. We've all done it. Player X has a huge week (on your bench), so you do what any self-respecting fantasy enthusiast would do. You start him next week, and he is a disappointment. So now you've lost out on the first week of success, and you followed it up with a dud in the second week. What do you do in the third week? We've all been there. Every single one of us. That's the downside of chasing points. The upside, of course, is racking up the points each week. How can you predict those who will have a successful outcome and those who won't? It's tricky, but there are signs, triggers, and factors. I'll get to that...

Don't worry too much about Week 1 failures. Some teams take some time to right the ship, figure out their blocking schemes, find the right mix of personnel to handle an assignment, the right coaching decisions, play the right opponent, get a healthy player back, etc. Take a look at last year, for example...

• Do you remember when the Bears beat the 49ers in Week 1 last season? The game was played in heavy rain, and it was a huge factor in the outcome. That was one of Chicago's three wins last year, and San Francisco wound up with 13 victories. Week 1 wasn't an indication of either team's season outlook.
• Jacksonville, who advanced to the playoffs, lost to the Commanders in Week 1. They flipped the script the following week with a 24-0 shutout of the Colts.
• Dallas scored a mere 3 points in Week 1, but they righted the ship in Week 2 against the Bengals, which led to a streak of six wins in their next seven games and 12 total for the season.

The same can be said for players who had a surprisingly productive Week 1. There may be something there, but then again, it may be a ruse. How do you know the difference? There are more wide receivers on the field than in any other position, which means more receivers have a chance to finish high in the ranks, and vice versa, more receivers have a chance to finish lower. Don't overreact, especially at wide receiver. Here is a list of ten factors you should look at to grasp a player's fantasy value or worth when aiming at the rest of the season.

• Observe snap counts and snap percentages. How often were they on the field? Footballguys displays offense and defense snap count numbers every week.
• Examine the depth chart around them. Is there an opening for this player to thrive moving forward?
• What are players or coaches saying about this player? Google Bard can help with this - Try using this prompt - "What are coaches saying about Puka Nacua's Week 1 performance?"
• Did an injury open the door for more involvement? Footballguys has you covered here, too - Injury Articles
• Was a particular matchup the main reason for their success or failure?
• Did their points come in garbage time? Will this be a commonality with his team?
• Did their production come from one or two big plays?
• How many red-zone targets did they have? Red zone targets by team
• What was their target share % compared to the rest of the team? Player targets
• Was their fantasy production touchdown-dependent, or were they consistent throughout the game?

Sometimes it's just a feeling...Texans wide receiver Nico Collins is slated to take a step forward this season after being a consistent target in 2022, especially in the second half of the season. He started 2023 with six receptions for 80 yards on 11 targets. Perhaps it is a sign of things to come.

Which fringe players who had success in Week 1 are contenders, and who are pretenders?

CONTENDERS

• Zay Flowers WR, Baltimore - The Ravens first-round pick did not disappoint in Week 1. He collected 9 receptions on 10 targets for 78 yards. The next closest player on the team had 3 targets. Yes, this game did not include tight end Mark Andrews (quad), but it was clear from the beginning that Zay Flowers is going to be a key component to this Ravens offense. With J.K. Dobbins lost due to injury, the team may focus even more attention on the passing game, which benefits Flowers.
• Puka Nacua WR, Los Angeles - The Rams, as a whole, looked sharp in their opening game at Seattle. Cooper Kupp (hamstring) will be out until at least Week 5. If Week 1 is any indication, rookie Puka Nacua will be the one filling the majority of Kupp's void. He finished with 10 catches on 15 targets for 119 yards. The next closest player had 8 targets (Tutu Atwell). In terms of yardage, the next closest was Tyler Higbee's 49 yards. It appears clear the Nacua is going to be relied upon while Kupp is out and possibly longer. Once Kupp returns, provided he is 100% healed, he should command the majority of the team's target share, but that doesn't mean Nacua will fade out of fantasy relevance. The Rams were a surprise, and it might just continue.
• Brian Robinson Jr RB, Washington - Week 1 showed us that Brian Robinson is likely the Commander's top option at running back. He was relied upon for 19 carries compared to only three by Antonio Gibson. Gibson lost a fumble and also lost his place in the pecking order of the Commander's backfield. Gibson may still have a role on the team, but it seems clear that Robinson is the preferred back. He is younger and healthier, and he has shown results.
• Mac Jones QB, New England - It's amazing how having a capable offensive coordinator can help a quarterback and a team. Bill O'Brien's presence as the team's offensive coordinator appears to have made an impression on Jones. Against a tough defensive Philadelphia lineup, Jones converted 34 of his 54 pass attempts, both career highs, en route to a 300-yard game (his 5th career) with three touchdown passes. Philadelphia won the game, but Jones looked like he turned the corner against one of the league's better defenses. He may not advance to a top-12 fantasy quarterback, but it looks like he will advance higher than expected.

PRETENDERS

• Kyren Williams RB, LAR - Williams was the better of the two Rams running backs last week. However, Cam Akers is still the primary option. He was given the ball 22 times despite only totaling 29 yards. That says the team wants him to be the main back; it just wasn't happening for him. Is Chuba Hubbard or Tyler Algeier the better back on their respective teams? Most likely, no. While Williams showed he can produce when asked, he is not a full-load type of back. His size indicates this as well, at 5'9 and 194 pounds. He may carve a role for the Rams, but he's not the only answer.
• Romeo Doubs WR, GB - Doubs started the season off with two touchdowns, but he had only four catches. His five targets led the team. He may develop into a complementary receiver for Green Bay this year, but once Christian Watson (hamstring) returns, he'll be the type of receiver who shows up one week and drops off the next.
• Hayden Hurst TE, CAR - Hurst was the recipient of Bryce Young's first touchdown pass, and he may establish a good rapport with Young as the season wears on. However, it may be a tall order to suggest that Hurst will have the same scoring touch every week. Hurst could wind up being a top-15 tight end and perhaps someone you can use as an injury replacement or bye-week filler, but lack of consistency is a concern.

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING, BUT WE NEED TO READ THE TEA LEAVES IN SOME SITUATIONS

Don't give up on players who have shown success in the past and may have struggled in Week 1. Each week is different, and some teams and players take time to get going. At the same time, we have to realize that, in some instances, expectations and reality may not be equal.

• Jalen Hurts QB, PHI - The Eagles offense, which includes Hurts, may have some rocky spots, especially early on as they deal with learning and getting into a rhythm with their new offensive coordinator, Brian Johnson. It's not Johnson's ability but the lack of cohesion with the offense as a whole. They'll come together - so will Hurts, but it could take a few weeks to get up to speed.
• Joe Burrow QB, CIN - Not only is Burrow overcoming a calf injury, but the Week 1 game was not in the best of weather conditions. Combined, the Browns and Bengals passed for 236 yards with one touchdown pass. We saw Aaron Rodgers have a calf injury early in camp. Burrow is younger and more agile than Rodgers, but this is something to monitor. Better days are ahead for Burrow, but until he has a solid game, we'll be a little apprehensive.
• Jahmyr Gibbs RB, DET - Gibbs had an eyebrow-raising effort at Kansas City in Week 1. However, the numbers didn't exactly indicate an All-Pro-worthy performance. The Lions know Gibbs is going to be a big part of their offense, but they were, and are, wise to ease him into increased action. The skills are there for Gibbs, but maybe something is lacking in the full understanding of the offense that is keeping Dan Campbell from turning up the reps for the rookie. Gibbs' time is coming. Expect to see his usage tick upward as the weeks continue.
• Isiah Pacheco RB, KC - We can include Jerick McKinnon in this as well. The Chiefs lacked an identity on offense without Travis Kelce (knee) in the lineup. Pacheco is the best running back on the team, and as soon as the team realizes this, they will lean on him more. McKinnon has skills as well, especially as a passing-down receiver, but his age (31) and wear have relegated him to a niche role with the Chiefs. Both backs are better options in best-ball leagues where a starting lineup isn't required, but there are better days ahead for the Chiefs, which includes Pacheco and McKinnon by default.
• Deebo Samuel WR, SF - The writing was on the wall in the offseason that the 49ers' best wide receiver was changing over to the younger, healthier Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk proved this right in Week 1 with 8 catches for 129 yards and 2 touchdowns. He may be the newcomer, but that's not to say Samuel will fade off into the sunset. He still has the skills and ability to be a playmaker, but it might be on a less consistent basis. He should produce decent numbers consistently but not top-ranked numbers on a week-to-week basis.
• DJ Moore WR, CHI - We saw Moore struggle to emerge as an elite fantasy asset in Carolina, especially early in the season, only to watch him rise from the ashes and produce quality numbers despite being on a sub-par passing offense. Same thing, new team is the common theme here. Chicago wanted a weapon for Justin Fields, and despite trailing for most of the game, Moore was targeted only two times. It would be gross misconduct for Chicago not to include Moore as a key piece of their game plan. Justin Fields wants to throw for 4,000 yards; he'll need Moore to get there. This situation should improve moving forward, but it is a concern until it does.

A FEW TIDBITS WORTH NOTING

10+ targets but zero touchdowns

• 15 targets, 10-119, Puka Nacua, LAR
• 13 targets, 7-65, DeAndre Hopkins, TEN
• 12 targets, 9-150, Justin Jefferson, MIN
• 11 targets, 6-80, Nico Collins, HOU
• 10 targets, 7-79, A.J. Brown, PHI
• 10 targets, 6-21, Zach Ertz, ARI
• 10 targets, 9-78, Zay Flowers, BAL
• 10 targets, 8-112, Chris Olave, NO
• 10 targets, 6-57, Robert Woods, TEN

Players who scored with 4 or fewer targets

• 4 Pat Freiermuth, PIT
• 4 Aaron Jones, GB
• 4 Alexander Mattison, MIN
• 3 Blake Bell, KC
• 3 Trey Palmer, TB
• 3 Donald Parham Jr, LAC
• 2 Harrison Bryant, CLE
• 2 Lil'Jordan Humphrey, DEN
• 2 Brian Robinson Jr, WAS

15+ PPR points without a touchdown

• 24.0 Justin Jefferson, MIN
• 21.9 Puka Nacua, LAR
• 19.2 Chris Olave, NO
• 17.9 Tutu Atwell, LAR
• 17.7 Zay Flowers, BAL
• 16.7 Nick Chubb, CLE
• 15.7 Breece Hall, NYJ

TOP DEFENSES

Defenses with 5+ sacks

• 7 DAL
• 6 ARI
• 5 BAL
• 5 SF
• 5 NYJ

Defenses who allowed 15 points or less.

• 0 DAL
• 3 CLE
• 7 SF
• 9 BAL
• 10 ATL
• 13 LAR
• 15 NO

Defenses with 2+ interceptions

• 3 NO, NYJ
• 2 DAL, SF, ATL

Defenses with 2+ Fumble recoveries

• 2 TB, ARI, JAC, WAS

Thanks for reading. Questions or comments, hit me up on "X" formerly Twitter.

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