Fantasy Overview, Week 1

Welcome to the 2023 NFL season! As we kick off the year, there are a few things we can learn as we head into Week 1 to help us improve our fantasy football knowledge.

First, we can pay attention to how the new rookies perform. There are several talented rookies entering the league this year, and we'll want to see how they adjust to the NFL level and, more importantly, how they are utilized by their respective teams. We have an idea of how some rookies will perform, but there is always that feeling of uncertainty until we witness their success at the next level. Here is a list of the top fantasy rookies to look out for as we enter the season.

Rookies ranked by position for fantasy purposes

Quarterback

1. Anthony Richardson, IND - Dual-threat quarterbacks always rank higher than non-rushing quarterbacks. Richardson may be a little light on experience, but he makes up for it with athleticism and playmaking skills.
2. Bryce Young, CAR - Young has the rare ability to process the field well, especially for a rookie. His receiving corps may be lacking at this point in his career with the Panthers, but he could make up for it with accuracy, precision, and making the right decisions.
3. C.J. Stroud, HOU - The Texans have an uphill battle, but Stroud has the ability to move the ball effectively and accurately. He has a decent corps of weapons around him, but like Bryce Young, there will be periods of success and moments of growing pains.

Running Back

1. Bijan Robinson, ATL - The Falcons elected to spend their 8th overall pick on a running back, which may not be a trend that we will continue to see. Running back success in the NFL has recently been more about the system rather than the player. Adding an elite running back to that equation is usually a win. Robinson was the most sought-after running back in this class, and Atlanta pounced on him. Case history suggests he'll see immediate success, but there is always that level of uncertainty.
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET - Like Atlanta, Detroit spent a high pick (12th overall) on Gibbs, which was a surprise to many on draft day. Gibbs has elite athleticism, and he fits the mold of what Detroit thought they were getting from D'Andre Swift. He has the potential to be a Christian McCaffrey or Alvin Kamara-esque type of player who thrives as a receiver but can also produce as a rusher. He did not see many carries inside the 10-yard line at Alabama. We'll see if that rings true with Detroit. Either way, Gibbs is expected to be a productive fantasy running back.
3. Zach Charbonnet, SEA - The Seahawks shocked many after selecting Charbonnet in the second round of the NFL draft, especially after spending a high pick on running back Ken Walker III in the 2022 draft. Charbonnet is a versatile back who is capable of being the best back on the team. The only problem is that the Seahawks already have an answer at running back. The two-headed backfield may still prove fantasy relevance for both backs, but it does cancel out a high ceiling for both unless an injury opens the door for one to thrive.
4. Tank Bigsby, JAC - The Jaguars selected Bigsby to be a counter-punch to their already impressive back in Travis Etienne. How Doug Pederson will utilize both backs is yet to be seen, but the expectation is that it will be a committee approach, with both backs getting a fair share of carries. This backfield battle will be heavily watched early in the season.
5. Roschon Johnson, CHI - The Bears' leading rusher could be Justin Fields. After him, there is a line of talent waiting to contribute that includes the rookie Johnson, along with Khalil Herbert and D'Onta Foreman. I don't necessarily see any back standing out with 15+ carry potential. I see various backs having success with limited action. Eight carries a game, and a score may be what we see from one member of this trio, and it could vary from week to week. Until we get more clarity on the Bears offense, this is a situation with potential that is worth monitoring.
6. Kendre Miller, NO - The Saints will be without Alvin Kamara for the first three weeks of the season (suspension), and that leaves Jamaal Williams and the rookie Miller to fill the void. Miller has undergone rehab for an MCL tear back in December, and now he's dealing with a hamstring injury. He may not be available for Week 1, and if he is, he'll be used sparingly. Once Kamara returns, the volume of carries for Miller could dwindle. He may be a better fantasy option in 2024, but his situation bears monitoring.

1. Jordan Addison, MIN - The Vikings have a big void to fill that was vacated by Adam Thielen, who moved on to Carolina. Minnesota is loaded with offensive talent, starting with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. Addison brings an additional athletic presence to an already thriving offense. Addison has a similar skill set to that of DeVonta Smith. He is slippery, runs good routes, and he is a magnet for the ball. He loves to be involved. He has the opportunity to be a big piece of an offense that could feature more passing volume in 2023 due to the lack of a known rushing talent in the backfield.
2. Jaxson Smith-Njigba, SEA - The Seahawks added a first-round receiver to their mix of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Smith-Njigba enters a prolific offense and should see immediate targets as he acclimates himself to the league. A wrist injury may slow his ascent in the first few weeks of the season, but after he regains full health, he could be a weapon for Geno Smith and the potent Seattle offense.
3. Zay Flowers, BAL - This isn't going to be the same Ravens offense we're accustomed to seeing. Expect to see more passing volume and short-intermediate, quick passing plays. They drafted Flowers in the first round as a means to be a solution for what they are seeking on offense. Flowers' quick-footed, elusive skill set will be on display for all to see. Flowers and this offense have the potential to be raising eyebrows as early as Week 1.
4. Quentin Johnston, LAC - The Chargers, led by Justin Herbert and new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, may have the most passing volume in the NFL by season's end. They have multiple offensive receiving threats led by Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. Johnston was a first-round pick, so there is a plan for him. The Chargers have answers at the position already, so the big question is, how much involvement will Johnston see in this offense? This is an area we will be monitoring closely. Early observations from preseason suggest he may be brought along slower than expected. We'll see if there is any more clarity after Week 1.
5. Jayden Reed, GB - The Packers top receiving target is Christian Watson, but they are supported by Romeo Doubs and rookie Jayden Reed. Doubs is dealing with a mild hamstring injury, but those can turn on a dime at any point until fully healthy. There is room for Reed to be involved from the beginning but his plate could prove to be more full if Doubs misses extended time. Reed is expected to work mostly out of the slot, so he'll see the field. The big question is the amount of volume he will see. We'll be monitoring this situation.
6. Marvin Mims, DEN - The Broncos are dealing with an injury to their top receiving threat, Jerry Jeudy. He may miss the first two or three weeks of the season with a hamstring injury, which opens the door for someone else to thrive. Courtland Sutton may see the bulk of the target volume but Mims could sweep in and surprise us all with his athletic profile that is capable of turning over a game on its own. How will Denver use Mims? Can he be a threat from the beginning? Because this answer is a firm maybe, it bears watching.
7. Jonathan Mingo, CAR - The Panthers drafted Mingo in hopes that he will be the top target for Bryce Young for years to come. How soon will that be? Mingo's strength is his ability to make plays after the catch. He also is good on contested throws, which Carolina is lacking from other receivers. The Panthers' plans on offense will likely be heavily influenced by the running game, but Mingo could have some moments of glory that could catapult his fantasy appeal.

Tight End

1. Dalton Kincaid, BUF - The Bills saw teams select four straight wide receivers ahead of their pick in the first round of the NFL Draft. They elected to move up and select Dalton Kincaid, who is listed as a tight end, but we're going to see him be used more as a wide receiver in the Bills offense. Kincaid has excellent footwork and good hands. He has already seen a lot of action in the preseason, and if that's any indication of what the regular season will be, he could be a fantasy force starting in Week 1. Look for Kincaid to have his moments of success, but the big determining factor of his rookie success will be driven by the volume of work he receives.
2. Sam LaPorta, DET - The Lions are fully expected to use LaPorta as their starting tight end, and he has already indicated that he is ready for the role. Like Kincaid, LaPorta could see significant action as early as Week 1. It would not be a big surprise to see him have success early on.
3. Luke Musgrave, GB - The Packers are another team that is expected to start a rookie tight end this season. Luke Musgrave has received most of the first-team reps in preseason, and while his skill set doesn't quite match the profile of Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta, he will be on the field often, which is a step in the right direction for any rookie tight end.
4. Michael Mayer, LSV - Mayer has been rather quiet in the preseason for the Raiders, but he is expected to see a sizeable role for the Raiders this season. Being a fantasy success would be more of a surprise, but that's not to say it can't happen. His involvement and usage in Week 1 will say a lot about how quick his ascension will be in the NFL.

You could argue that the volume of carries or target share is more important at this stage of the season compared to who scores a touchdown. Like every season of fantasy football, we, as team managers, are first looking for clarity or affirmation that the players on our roster are worthy of being in the starting lineup. Here are some tips on what to look for to improve your fantasy knowledge.

Where does a player rank on the team target share percentage or, more simply, total targets? Is this particular player leading the team in targets? If so, that's a good indication that he should be in your lineup. If not, how involved was he? Was he used in the red zone? How many red zone targets did he have? Did he score? Scoring is big for winning in the moment, but volume and usage can be just as important to long-term consistent success.

Injuries not only affect your players but injuries of teammates also affect your players. Learn to anticipate who benefits from an injury and seek those players out, either as substitutes in your lineup or as players to target on the waiver wire. Learn which injuries are likely to keep a player shelved for multiple weeks and which ones can be played through. It also helps to know which teams generally will activate a player who is injured and which teams will not. Footballguy's own Adam Hutchinson dropped this information recently that captures which teams are more inclined to sit questionable players.

When listed as Q here’s the % a player didn’t play by team (only fantasy football positions ; ie no OL or Defense) pic.twitter.com/QddE480b5j

— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) August 16, 2023

We can also look at how new coaches impact their teams. There are a few new head coaches in the NFL this year, and we'll want to see how they implement their systems. Some coaches to watch include Sean Payton, DEN; Frank Reich, CAR; Shane Steichen, IND; Jonathan Gannon, ARI; and DeMeco Ryans, HOU. Footballguys' Jason Wood covered the impacts of new coaches in his annual article on the topic that can be seen here - Assessing the NFL's new play-callers

As we strive for more clarity on the fantasy landscape, here are some additional tips for improving your fantasy football knowledge.

• Do your research. This means studying the depth charts, reading scouting reports, and following the news.
• Stay up-to-date on injuries. This is especially important in the early weeks of the season when there are more injuries.
• Be flexible. Things don't always go according to plan in fantasy football, so be prepared to make changes to your lineup as needed.
• Be prepared for chaos. You will be surprised after Week 1 is complete. There will be some positive and negative surprises. It is important to react to what happened but also don't overreact. It is only Week 1. We've seen many players have their best game of the season in Week 1 and then disappear. Don't be flimflammed, but also don't underreact either.
• Be prepared to make moves on the waiver wire. Injuries will open new doors for others, and you must be ready to pounce. Don't only focus on positions of need.
• Have fun! Fantasy football is supposed to be enjoyable. Don't be upset if you lose in Week 1. Sometimes, a week can be won or lost by one player's performance. The goal is to make it your player's performance that wins you the week.

Questions, comments, and suggestions are always welcome. Hit me up on "X".

Follow @JeffHaseley