These are real dynasty trades from real leagues we can learn valuable strategic and value questions. These trades are Superflex dynasty trades unless otherwise noted.
Jamaal Williams for 2024 2nd
Jamaal Williams led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2022 with 17, en route to an RB13 overall finish for a surprisingly strong Detroit Lions offense. Williams led the team in carries (262) ahead of DAndre Swift (99). Williams is an unrestricted free agent, heading into his 28-year-old season, but is unlikely to draw a big contract in free agency. Currently, Williams is RB35 at KeepTradeCut.com (KTC). The problem with this trade is the timing: why do this in February?
Williams is a reserve running back heading into free agency, and there is no guarantee he will be in a useful fantasy role in 2023. Even if he is, Williams is unlikely to cost more than this. The problem with this deal is if he does not himself in a favorable position, the team tied up future flexibility they could use to fill your need later in the offseason or during the 2023 season. When making a deal, one of the ways to avoid a mistake is to ask yourself if this is the right time to make this deal. This is almost certainly the wrong time to do this deal.
Trey Lance, Terrace Marshall, Calvin Ridley, 2023 1st and 2023 2nd for Justin Herbert and Dawson Knox (2TE with 1.75PPR scoring for TE)
You have to evaluate this deal without the benefit of the exact place of this pick, but considering the valuation, it is unlikely to matter. Quarterbacks with multiple top-12 seasonal finishes while still on their rookie deal are the gold standard for dynasty Superflex quarterbacks. These quarterbacks have a higher expectation of productivity than quarterbacks with similar costs who do not have multiple hits on their resumes.
This makes Herbert an elite quarterback profile. A near consensus top-three pick in Superflex drafts in 2022, Herbert has slid to QB5 in recent KTC valuations but is still a mid-first-round startup pick in the format. At present, Trey Lance is QB14, falling between Daniel Jones and Kenny Pickett in KTC valuations. This is an enormous upgrade, and outside of the pick being 1.01, it would still be cheap for Herbert alone. However, in the 2TE format with premium scoring, Knox gets a strong boost. This trade accomplishes a solution at both premium positions, a good deal for the team acquiring Herbert.
Chris Olave for Tua Tagovailoa and Zach Wilson
In a Superflex format, you should lean toward the side of the deal acquiring the premium position unless there is a premium player at the other position. As a starting point, Tagovailoa is on the fringe of the QB1/QB2 boundary. His concussion concerns are real, but he has cleared the protocol this week, indicating he should be a full participant in the offseason program. When healthy this season, Tagovailoa was a top-10 quarterback in fantasy formats after struggling the first two seasons of his career.
Tagovailoa’s contract extension talks should begin this offseason, and an extension would confirm he is in Miami’s long-term plan. At this point in his career, Zach Wilson is a reclamation throw-in type player in Dynasty.
On the other side, Chris Olave had an elite rookie season that was hidden by his low route volume. In 15 games, Chris Olave ran 431 routes, compared to 595 for fellow rookie Garrett Wilson and 419 for Drake London, whom each played 17 games. Olave’s production was well above the other two on a per-route basis. His performance is likely undervalued because of his low volume.
The trade is a question of comfort. Olave is an elite rookie wide receiver profile, while Tagovailoa is a young quarterback who has a ceiling somewhere in the mid-to-late QB1 while the QB2 range is a real possibility. If there is going to be a player in the Top 5 of the position in the next year, it is almost certainly Olave.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and a 2023 2nd for Nico Collins
This is the wide receiver version of the Jamaal Williams trade. This trade does not accomplish much of anything except tying up future flexibility. Nico Collins is a fine young player, and projecting him to be better than Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a justifiable position. However, trading a second-round rookie pick, on top of Valdes-Scantling, for Collins solves no roster problem for a team in February. On the other side, the GM acquiring Valdes-Scantling and the 2023 2nd gets pick flexibility for the minimal difference between the two depth wide receivers. For them, this is a great trade and a reminder that roster flexibility is best gained when you can acquire picks in a relatively flat range of the position.
