Understanding the Value of TEs in your Dynasty Startup Draft

For years, we've heard about the fantasy wasteland at the tight end position. There is Travis Kelce and the field, and fantasy managers must decide how much they value the position early in drafts. Drafting a new dynasty team compounds this issue.

If you make a mistake in redraft leagues, it affects you for one season. You can learn and fix it next year. However, in a dynasty, you're stuck with these players until you find a trade partner, and bad decisions in your draft can haunt you for years.

Now that we've raised the stakes with appropriate levels of hyperbole, let's look at the tight ends available in the early, middle, and late rounds of a dynasty startup draft and help you decide how to value the players at each stage.

The Early Rounds (First 50 picks)

Five tight ends are going in the first five rounds of dynasty startups. Each has elite upside and at least one red flag, too, either age, inconsistency, or trouble at quarterback. Here is a quick look at the top five fantasy tight ends you'll consider early in your draft.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City

The only issue with Kelce stems from four little numbers on his birth certificate: 1989! At 33 years old, Kelce is at the top of his game, but some view him as a flawed dynasty asset. Like a new car, the minute you add him, he's worth less than what you paid. However, Kelce has been the best fantasy tight end in six of the last seven seasons, and the margin is not particularly close.

Check out Jordan McNamara's list of dynasty moves to make at tight end! >>>

On average, Kelce beats the 2nd-best tight end by about two points per game and the 10th-best by almost eight per game. Approaching 34 years old, it is inevitable that Kelce's time in the NFL will end soon. But for now, he is the top receiver for one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and he's likely to remain so for the next two seasons, at least. So if you want to win immediately, your odds are far better with Kelce on your roster.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore

Andrews is 26 years old and the only non-Travis Kelce to finish as the best fantasy tight end in the last seven years. So drafting him should be an easy decision. He was still a top-3 tight end last year, but his statistics were far from his excellent 2021 season.

The issue with Andrews is simply comparing him to Kelce. Andrews scored 301 points in 2021 but dropped to 190 in 2022. Kelce hasn't failed to top 200 fantasy points since 2015. He is still worth a pick in these early rounds, but you might have to hide your jealousy from the Kelce manager.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta

Pitts was born into the dynasty top-3 but has yet to do much to earn his keep. His athletic profile was unheard of for a rookie tight end. He plays more like a wide receiver, and fantasy managers salivated at what kind of numbers he would put up. Unfortunately, through two seasons, the only way to describe those numbers is disappointing.

His 1000 yards as a rookie look great, but it's overshadowed by scoring just a single touchdown. In 2022, he doubled his touchdown output but registered just 28 catches for 356 yards in 10 games. At 22 years old, he still has every bit of the upside he came into the league with, but there is a risk of another mediocre season or two while Atlanta solves their quarterback problem.

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota

At 25 years old, with two top-five seasons already, Hockenson might be what the fantasy world was hoping for from Kyle Pitts. Interstingly, he and Pitts have an almost identical draft cost, so your choice is between upside and proven production, with a three-year age gap. Hockenson was the 2nd-best fantasy tight end in 10 games with Minnesota and should be an integral part of their offense for years to come.

George Kittle, San Francisco

Kittle has almost every red flag fantasy managers try to avoid, but his talent keeps him in the top-five conversation. He is about to be 30 years old, rarely plays an entire season, and the San Francisco quarterback situation is murky with injuries to Trey Lance and Brock Purdy, plus Sam Darnold as the backup plan.

Kittle was the No. 3 tight end in fantasy last year and scored a career-high 11 touchdowns. He might be the best value in the early rounds if we could guarantee that production. Unfortunately, if he were to fall back to his career average of five touchdowns, he would fall out of the Top 5, and that risk, along with his age and injury history, make him the most questionable of the top-five candidates.

Before we move onto the middle of your draft, let's discuss a draft strategy called Bully Tight End. The thought process here is to land two elite players at the position, creating scarcity for others in the league and a positional advantage for your team.

While this can be an effective strategy, we've seen over the past few seasons that the second-through-fifth-ranked tight ends rarely match the elite production of the top tight end. So outside of drafting Kelce and a younger backup plan, the talent you're passing up in these early rounds is more valuable than hoarding slightly above-average tight ends.

The Middle Rounds (Picks 51-150)

The middle rounds are where a dynasty start-up separates itself from a redraft regarding tight ends. You'll often see older, more established players go here in redraft. In Dynasty, it is all about youth and rookies.

If you're unwilling to spend the draft capital on Kelce, Pitts, or Andrews, you're likely drafting your first tight end in these middle rounds. The goal here is to find the next big thing, and there are some interesting statistics to point you in the right direction.

Over the last five seasons, only 12 tight ends have finished in the Top 5 for fantasy football. While that is a very exclusive group, there is a trend with these 12 players that could help us identify our best selections in dynasty drafts. All but one fit into at least one of three categories.

• They were a Top 5 tight end in a previous season.
• They were under 26 years old.
• They were starting for the first time.

This method focuses on age and previous fantasy seasons. Check out Christian Williams' Archetype of a Top-12 TE for another technique for identifying the best tight ends. >>>

We can use this data to identify players with the best chance of finishing in the Top 5. Starting with those that have done it before, you have Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, and Kittle, but they're already gone. Looking at the still available players, four in this range have a top-five season on their books: Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, and Darren Waller.

Most of the remaining tight ends in this grouping will fit into one of the other two categories, if not both. So instead of listing every rookie and up-and-coming tight end, let's focus on the players that fantasy managers should avoid in these rounds. They don't meet any criteria indicating a finish in the Top 5.

Unless a guy is getting his first shot at a starting job, if he is older than 25 and has never been a top-five tight end previously, it is unlikely he will make the leap. The only exception in the last five seasons has been Jared Cook. In 2018, he was in the Top 5 for the first time despite being 31 years old and having already been a starter.

Dallas Goedert, Dawson Knox, and David Njoku are the most glaring names on this list of traps. They are all tied to young, gifted quarterbacks, likely inflating their draft cost. Looking at their history, they have not finished better than the No. 8 spot in year-end fantasy rankings. You're far better off loading up on younger players ready for a true breakout.

The Late Rounds (Pick 151 and beyond)

Before we get into some potential sleepers you can find late in your draft, let's talk draft strategy. If you don't land Travis Kelce, you'll want a stable of tight ends. Streaming the position is the only way to get elite production without an elite tight end.

It might sound crazy from a redraft lens, but you'll want at least three, but more likely four or five tight ends on your roster when all is said and done. The reason behind this is the sheer depth of benches in a dynasty league. With over 250 players rostered, playing the waiver wire for streaming options will be more challenging, so you need to create your own pool.

Now to the sleepers. To start, Logan Thomas and Robert Tonyan Jr are both going late and have previous top-five seasons. While Tonyan is likely backing up Cole Kmet now, Thomas' situation is more interesting. He is the probable starter in Washington with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Bieniemy has been with Travis Kelce for the last nine seasons, and his offense will likely keep the tight end heavily involved. If Thomas can recover fully from last year's injuries, he is an exciting pick this late in the draft.

Chigoziem Okonkwo is 23 years old and should start for a Titans team without many pass-catchers. Tampa Bay's Cade Otton and Dallas' Jake Ferguson are in similar situations. But, perhaps the most exciting player you can find this late is the new Bengals tight end, Irv Smith Jr. Minnesota replaced Smith after a 2022 preseason injury, but he now latches onto one of the best offenses in football. With Joe Burrow throwing him the ball, the 24-year-old still has a chance to resurrect his career.

When it comes to dynasty tight ends, you almost always have to take a quantity-over-quality approach. Look for younger players getting their first opportunity or older players with a top-five pedigree. Then, build a roster that gives you a few options to choose from each week and play the matchups. Or draft Travis Kelce.

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