Divisional Round Games
- Saturday Slate:
- Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 43.5 - Spread Ravens -9.5
- Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 50.5 - Spread 49ers -9.5
- Sunday Slate:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 48.5 - Spread Lions -6.5
- Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 45.5 - Spread Bills -2.5
Texans at Ravens
- Texans:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 15th
- Dropback EPA: 15th
- Rush EPA: 23rd
- Points per game: 22.2 (13th)
- Yards per game: 342.4 (12th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 23rd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 5th
- Points per game allowed: 20.8 (11th best)
- Yards per game allowed: 330.7 (14th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +24 (12th)
- Offensive Rankings
- Ravens:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 5th
- Dropback EPA: 12th
- Rush EPA: 2nd
- Points per game: 28.4 (4th)
- Yards per game: 370.4 (6th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 30th
- Points per game allowed: 16.5 (best)
- Yards per game allowed: 301.4 (6th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +203 (1st)
- Offensive Rankings
Texans
C.J. Stroud ($6,700) has cemented himself as a superstar in the NFL. He ranked fourth in passing yards per game (274.6) and 13th in pass touchdowns per game (1.5) during the regular season and threw for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns with a 76.2% completion in his first playoff game last week. But he faces a much tougher test this week on the road against one of the best defenses in football. Get exposure to Stroud but do it through the weapons around him, not by playing Stroud himself.
Dameon Pierce has played just six total snaps over the past two games. Devin Singletary ($5,700) dominates this backfield. He has seen and handled 41 opportunities and touches over his past two games. Look for Houston to remain balanced as they have all season and try to attack a Ravens' run defense that is the unit's only weakness. Baltimore only ranked 30th in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17.
Nico Collins ($7,100) is a star. He ranked 13th in receiving yards per game (78.7) in weeks 1-17, dropped a whopping 9-195-1 line on the Colts in Week 18, and put up 6-96-1 in his first-ever playoff game last week. Collins has a tough matchup here but he's Stroud's go-to guy and should see plenty of volume in a projected come-from-behind game script. With Noah Brown injured and out and Robert Woods total dust, John Metchie III ($3,400) and Xavier Hutchinson ($3,000) are in play as large-field tournament punt plays. Metchie is the clear favorite between the two as he played on 76% of the offensive snaps last week compared to Hutchinson's 43% of the snaps.
Dalton Schultz ($4,400) only caught one pass last week but it was a 37-yard touchdown. Look for Schultz to see more volume this week in a projected come-from-behind game script, making him an intriguing tournament play.
Ravens
Lamar Jackson ($7,900) is the favorite to win what would be his second MVP award. Jackson leads a 13-4 Ravens team dominating at just the right time if they can keep their positive momentum going into the postseason. Baltimore led the league in point differential (+203) during the regular season and Jackson led an offense that ranked sixth in both Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) on his way to ranking fourth at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (22.3). He's at home in a decent spot here and is in the QB1 of the week discussion.
Mark Andrews is out once again. Focus on Zay Flowers ($6,000), Odell Beckham Jr (4,600), and Isaiah Likely ($4,700). Flowers dominated this Ravens team in targets (108), receptions (77), and receiving yards (858) during the regular season, picking up right where he left off in college by producing and performing at a very high level. We've seen Beckham perform at that level for years but he's now on the tail end of his career. A part-time player during the regular season, the Ravens were likely at least saving him a bit for the postseason. Be bullish on Beckham's playing time spiking into the 60%ish range on Saturday. Likely is a talented player who hasn't seen extreme volume without Andrews in the lineup but he's a big play threat who has caught five touchdowns over his past five games.
The running game is almost a total stay-away with Dalvin Cook ($4,000) potentially being added to the mix. Justice Hill ($4,800) is utilized a bit as a receiver but only averaged 7.5 opportunities per game during the regular season. Gus Edwards ($5,900) averaged more opportunities per game (12.6) but he doesn't catch many passes. He does possess the trump card though: touchdowns. Edwards' 13 touchdowns were the sixth most during the regular season. Edwards is in play in large field tournaments and that's it.
Packers at 49ers
- Packers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 7th
- Dropback EPA: 5th
- Rush EPA: 9th
- Points per game: 22.5 (12th)
- Yards per game: 345.5 (11th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 25th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 25th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
- Points per game allowed: 20.6 (10th best)
- Yards per game allowed: 335.1 (17th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +33 (10th)
- Offensive Rankings
- 49ers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Points per game: 28.9 (3rd)
- Yards per game: 398.4 (2nd)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 17th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 25th
- Points per game allowed: 17.5 (3rd best)
- Yards per game allowed: 303.9 (8th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +193 (3rd)
- Offensive Rankings
Packers
Entering the postseason, Jordan Love ($6,200) was on a touchdown-throwing hot streak. He ranked fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) and had thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his past nine games. Then what did he do in his first playoff game? He threw for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns and completed 76.2% of his passes. Love is on fire and the matchup isn't as tough as one would expect. As Green Bay is a 9.5-point underdog, look for Love to chuck it all over the field on Saturday night. Love is in play thanks to his affordable price tag and extremely impressive recent play.
We nailed the Aaron Jones ($6,700) call last week:
Aaron Jones ($6,300) hasn't scored a touchdown since November 5th, but imagine if he had found the end zone recently. How differently would he be viewed? Jones is one of the best, if not the best, tournament plays of the entire week, especially with A.J. Dillon doubtful. Over the past three weeks since Jones was declared ready to roll health-wise by Green Bay's coaching staff, Jones has averaged 24 opportunities and 135.3 total yards. Both of those numbers would lead the NFL if they were over the full season. That means the current state of Jones is an elite play in terms of both opportunity and performance.
That was super fun. Jones went on to turn 22 touches into 131 total yards and 3 touchdowns. He's talented, finally healthy, and operating as a workhorse in an offense that is currently firing on all cylinders. And the 49ers defense only ranked 25th in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17. Jones is once again firmly in play.
Green Bay's receiving corps is a bit of a mess right now from a fantasy perspective because they legit have five guys that can play. Here were the offensive snap percentages last week: Romeo Doubs ($5,600) 70%, Dontayvion Wicks ($4,900) 55%, Jayden Reed ($5,200) 46%, Christian Watson ($4,200) 41%, and Bo Melton ($3,300) 39%. This makes it tough to trust any of them as cash game options. There are some opportunities to exploit in tournaments though. Doubs (96) and Reed (94) were the clear leaders in targets on the Packers this season. Doubs went off last week, catching 6 passes for 151 yards and 1 touchdown. Meanwhile, Reed didn't even catch a single pass. You know what that means! Take advantage of recency bias and go right back to Reed. The game script projects to be a lot different in this game. The Packers are 9.5-point underdogs and Reed is going to be needed in a big way. And then there's Watson whose playing time is almost surely going to spike in his second game back from injury. Watson's talent is undeniable and he should play a larger role in the offense this week.
Luke Musgrave ($3,600) and Tucker Kraft ($3,100) are in a bit of a timeshare now. They are avoids this week.
49ers
Don't let Dallas' most recent collapse last week fool you. Green Bay's defense has been a total disaster this season. Kyle Shanahan is about to put on a master class.
Brock Purdy ($6,500) is a fantastic play in all formats at home in this great spot and matchup. Purdy led a 49ers offense that ranked first in both EPA/Play and Dropback EPA and he ranked fifth in passing yards per game (267.5) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (1.9) during the regular season. He's about to shred the Packers.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) is clearly the best running back play of the weekend. San Francisco traded for him to be a difference-maker in these specific playoff moments and McCaffrey already ranked second in opportunities per game (22.2), first in total yards per game (126.4), and first in total touchdowns (21) during the regular season. McCaffrey is going to make this bad Packers defense look very silly.
Deebo Samuel ($7,700), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900), and George Kittle ($5,200) are all fantastic plays. Of course, the issue is trying to identify which of them will have the ceiling game as they seem to take turns. But multiple could absolutely find the optimal in such a favorable matchup at home. DraftKings significantly underprices the tight end position as a whole and we see that here with Kittle drastically cheaper than Samuel and Aiyuk despite his tournament upside being just as high. And the Packers defense allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position this season (12.6). If choosing two: roll with Kittle and Aiyuk due to their more affordable price tags.
Buccaneers at Lions
- Buccaneers:
- Offensive Rankings from Weeks 8-17
- EPA/Play: 13th
- Dropback EPA: 9th
- Rush EPA: 29th
- Points per game: 20.5 (20th)
- Yards per game: 313 (23rd)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 27th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 28th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
- Points per game allowed: 19.1 (6th best)
- Yards per game allowed: 344.2 (23rd best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +23 (13th)
- Offensive Rankings from Weeks 8-17
- Lions:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 9th
- Dropback EPA: 6th
- Rush EPA: 7th
- Points per game: 27.1 (5th)
- Yards per game: 394.8 (3rd)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 16th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 24th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 6th
- Points per game allowed: 23.2 (23rd best)
- Yards per game allowed: 336.1 (19th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +66 (8th)
- Offensive Rankings
Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield ($6,000) and the passing offense are in a good spot here in the dome in Detroit against a pass defense that greatly struggled over the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Mayfield has truly revitalized his career as he led a Buccaneers offense that ranked ninth in Dropback EPA, tenth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Mayfield should find success and projected game script is in Mayfield's favor of chucking it with Tampa Bay listed as 6.5-point underdogs.
Mike Evans ($7,200) had a down game and dropped what appeared to be a sure touchdown last week. It's time to go right back to the well in tournaments. Evans has gone over 1,000 receiving yards all ten seasons of his career and finished the regular season with 1,255 and 13 touchdowns. This is the exact kind of stud future Hall of Famer you want to utilize to take advantage of recency bias. Meanwhile, Chris Godwin ($6,300) continues to be significantly more involved as of late. His target totals over his past six games: 11, 12, 10, 5, 7, 5. Godwin caught 4 of his 5 targets for 45 yards and 1 touchdown last week.
Cade Otton ($3,500) is affordable and is coming off a game where he caught 8 of 11 targets for 89 yards. The matchup is great for him too as the Lions defense allowed the ninth most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (11.8). this season. He makes for a better cash play than tournament play though since last week's numbers will push up his ownership.
Rachaad White ($6,500) is certainly in play but he's more of a cash game floor option than a tournament ceiling one. White ranked sixth in opportunities per game (19.9) and 12th in total yards per game (90.4) in the regular season. But the Buccaneers are road underdogs here and Detroit has a better run defense than they do pass defense. Stay away in tournaments.
Lions
At home in the dome, the Lions are absolutely an offense we want to load up on this weekend.
Jared Goff ($6,300) led a Lions offense that ranked ninth in EPA/Play and sixth in Dropback EPA and he ranked sixth in both passing yards per game (265.9) and pass touchdowns per game (1.8) during the regular season. Goff has historically performed better at home in Detroit's dome and he gets a favorable matchup against a struggling Buccaneers pass funnel defense. Goff is an intriguing tournament play with boom potential.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200) is, of course, a very strong play. He ranked fifth in targets per game (10.3), third in receptions per game (7.5), and fifth in receiving yards per game (91.4) during the regular season and he caught 7 of 9 targets for 110 yards last week in his first playoff game. St. Brown has either caught a touchdown or gone over 100+ receiving yards in four of his past five games.
Sam LaPorta ($5,900) was not only active last week but he played on 80% of the offensive snaps and caught all three of his targets, one of which went for a touchdown. And LaPorta's health status is reportedly in a better place than it was last week (Although he listed as questionable). It's just a question of how risky are you feeling when it comes to his health because the matchup is incredible against a Buccaneers defense that allowed the second most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (13.2) this season.
Josh Reynolds ($3,700) and Jameson Williams ($3,600) are two of the best affordable wide receiver plays of the week. Reynolds played on 86% of the offensive snaps and caught 5 of 7 targets for 80 yards last week. Williams played on 70% of the offensive snaps and caught both of his targets last week. Reynolds is the better play in cash and Williams is the better play in tournaments.
David Montgomery ($6,100) averaged 17.9 opportunities per game and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600) averaged 17.1 opportunities per game during the regular season. This is a full-blown committee between the priority goal-line back (Montgomery) and the more explosive player (Gibbs). Last week in the Wild Card round, Montgomery saw 15 opportunities and scored a touchdown and Gibbs saw 12 opportunities and scored a touchdown. They each totaled 68 yards. This is a tough situation to predict but Montgomery is the preferred choice due to the Lions being home favorites in this spot.
Chiefs at Bills
- Chiefs:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 11th
- Dropback EPA: 11th
- Rush EPA: 16th
- Points per game: 21.8 (15th)
- Yards per game: 351.3 (9th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 19th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 28th
- Points per game allowed: 17.3 (2nd best)
- Yards per game allowed: 289.8 (2nd best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +77 (6th)
- Offensive Rankings
- Bills:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 6th
- Dropback EPA: 10th
- Rush EPA: 3rd
- Points per game: 26.5 (6th)
- Yards per game: 374.5 (4th)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 10th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 9th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 14th
- Points per game allowed: 18.3 (4th best)
- Yards per game allowed: 307.2 (9th best)
- Point Differential Ranking: +140 (4th)
- Offensive Rankings
And now we get to the game of the week. The NFL is certainly saving the best for last here with another Patrick Mahomes II vs. Josh Allen postseason clash.
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes II ($6,800) is on the road against a solid defense but he's the best player on the planet and sometimes the analysis can be that simple when the pressure of the postseason is taken into consideration. Mahomes led a Chiefs offense that ranked third in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) and second in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and he ranked ninth in both passing yards per game (261.4) and pass touchdowns per game (1.7). Likely to be pushed by Josh Allen on the other side, you're living on another planet if you don't realize Mahomes has a tournament-winning spike week in him in this environment.
Here is what I wrote last week about Rashee Rice ($6,800):
Here are Rice's target totals over his past six games: 10, 9, 10, 9, 12, 6. Rice should no longer be viewed as a "rookie" wide receiver. Instead, he should be viewed as Mahomes' clear-cut alpha WR1 and a go-to player in the offense.
Rice was a huge differentiator last week and helped people win thousands of dollars catching 8 of 12 targets for 130 yards and 1 touchdown. He's a phenomenal play once again, with double-digit targets looking like a near lock.
Not surprisingly, the Chiefs and Travis Kelce ($6,000) went into postseason mode last week. Kelce caught 7 of 10 targets for 71 yards but could've had an even bigger day if it weren't for a few uncharacteristic drops. Kelce saw 10 targets against the Bills earlier this season and it would be shocking if he doesn't see double-digit targets once again on Sunday. From a tournament perspective, Kelce hasn't scored a touchdown in seven straight games. That's great for us because too many people will give in to recency bias and be afraid to play him. Lean into it. Kelce is due for a score.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,400) played on 70% of the offensive snaps last week and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,500) played on 30%. Pacheco saw 25 opportunities and Edwards-Helaire saw 8. Pacheco's workload should've come as no surprise, especially with Jerick McKinnon out due to injury. Entering the playoffs Pacheco ranked 11th in the NFL in opportunities per game (18.1). Priced quite affordably, Pacheco is a strong play in all formats once again this week.
Here were the secondary and tertiary receiver's offensive playing percentages last week: Justin Watson ($3,300) 68%, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,000) 41%, Mecole Hardman Jr. ($3,000) 34%, and Richie James ($3,000) 20%. They all saw between two and three targets. Rostering a cheap and low-owned Mahomes receiver makes sense but it's extremely tough to predict this group.
Bills
Josh Allen ($8,000) is the best quarterback play of the week. He's simply on another planet right now as he's putting the Bills offense on his shoulders. Allen led a Bills offense that ranked sixth in EPA/Play, tenth in Dropback EPA, 11th in PROE, and fourth in EDPF and he ranked first at the quarterback position in DraftKings fantasy points per game (25) during the regular season. He followed that up by throwing for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns and running for 74 yards and 1 touchdown in the Wild Card round. With Patrick Mahomes II pushing him on the other side, Allen has astronomical upside playing at home in this one against a good but not great Chiefs defense.
James Cook ($6,300) ranked ninth in total yards per game (94.7) during the regular season. He's an explosive dual-threat at home in a favorable fantasy game. Cook caught all 5 of his targets for 83 yards and 1 touchdown against the Chiefs earlier this season and his receiving upside will be needed once again if the Bills are going to finally unseat the Chiefs in the AFC during the postseason. Luckily Cook didn't have a big game last week, which should keep his ownership in check here, making him one of the best tournament plays of the weekend.
Stefon Diggs ($7,000) hasn't scored in six straight games and he's only gone over 52 receiving yards once during that stretch. The offensive coordinator change hasn't been kind to his fantasy value. Everyone knows this, which will keep his ownership down. That makes him one of the best tournament plays of the weekend on this short slate. Diggs' talent didn't disappear overnight and he'll be needed massively in this one with Gabriel Davis injured and not playing. And despite the production not matching, Diggs has still been plenty involved in the offense. He's only seen fewer than seven targets once over the past eight games.
Dalton Kincaid ($4,800) and Khalil Shakir ($3,800) are two of the best secondary receiving weapons plays on this short slate. Shakir is the preference at such a cheap price. He caught all six of his targets for 105 yards in Week 18 and then found pay dirt in the Wild Card round. He's talented and should be priced closer to Kincaid, especially with Dawson Knox ($3,000) cutting into Kincaid's opportunities a bit.
Key Injuries
- Mark Andrews OUT - Upgrade Isiah Likely, Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr, and Rashod Bateman
- Jerick McKinnon OUT - Upgrade Isiah Pacheco
- Gabriel Davis OUT - Upgrade Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and James Cook
- Noah Brown OUT - Upgrade Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie III, and Xavier Hutchinson
- Marlon Humphrey OUT - Upgrade Texans offense
- Kalif Raymond OUT - Upgrade Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Josh Reynolds
- Christian Benford and Taylor Rapp both OUT and Rasul Douglas Questionable - Upgrade Patrick Mahomes II
- Skyy Moore OUT
- Sam LaPorta Questionable
- A.J. Dillon Questionable
- KaDarius Toney Questionable
- Justyn Ross Questionable
Favorite Tournament Team Stacks
- Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle
- Patrick Mahomes II, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce
- Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and either James Cook or Dalton Kincaid
- Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams
- Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, and Odell Beckham Jr