Three Up, Three Down: Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

How quickly things change between preseason, Week 1, and Week 2. In just a week, one player went from "trending down" to "trending up," a great example of why we shouldn't overreact to a single week of football. Although one data point from Week 1 can show us some signs, Week 2 is when we can start to predict what may become a trend.

Three Up

The Rams Offense

Written off as a team that might tank for Caleb Williams just a couple of weeks ago, the Los Angeles Rams look like legitimate contenders in the NFC. And the offense is full of fantasy goodness. Matthew Stafford has thrown for 300-plus yards in back-to-back weeks. And while his QB ranking of QB19 isn't anything to write home about, he's supported some elite fantasy options. Through Week 2, Puka Nacua's 25 receptions and 35 targets both lead the NFL. Despite not catching a touchdown, he is PPR's WR2 behind only Tyreek Hill. Tutu Atwell's 196 yards rank seventh most in the league. His 17 targets are tied for 16th most with Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Christian Kirk. Only Christian McCaffrey has more PPR points at the running position than Kyren Williams. This offense will only elevate more if/when Cooper Kupp returns. This is an offense worth investing in.

RB D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles

After gracing the "Trending Down" section in last week's article, D'Andre Swift is trending up after his career performance on Thursday night. Perhaps investing in the Eagles' backfield is a silly endeavor. But Swift's talent and an ideal situation finally came together for one game, and the results were beautiful: 28 carries, three targets, 181 scrimmage yards, and 27.1 PPR fantasy points. Swift was often held back during his tenure in Detroit to a limited role. But those who watched Swift in college know he has the talent to be an explosive three-down back with pass-catching upside. He has a profile that is capable of amassing a ton of fantasy points. The waters may muddy when Kenneth Gainwell returns, but Swift has the highest ceiling in Phialdlphia's backfield.

TE Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals

Prior to last year's season-ending injury, Zach Ertz averaged 12.6 PPR points per game. Only Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and TJ Hockenson averaged more over the full year. A midseason ACL tear left plenty of managers expecting a slow start to his age-33 campaign. Well, through two weeks, Ertz's 18 targets and 29.5% target share both lead all tight ends. The fantasy production hasn't been there yet, as Ertz has managed just 12 receptions and 77 yards on his opportunities. But at a position rife with low-floor options, Ertz's usage presents a relatively safe floor. Dating back to 2015, Ertz has been a top-10 tight end in every season not ended early by injury. If he can maintain his target volume, he'll likely do it again in 2023.

Three Down

The Bengals Offense

It's not time to panic and sell low on all of your Bengals players yet, but something clearly isn't right in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow suffered a preseason calf injury, and it appears that's still lingering. Burrow's 9.8 fantasy points per game average out to be fantasy's QB31. Ja'Marr Chase, touted as the unanimous WR2 in preseason rankings, is the current WR57. Joe Mixon's output has been borderline flex-worthy. Tee Higgins, after blanking in Week 1, saved his fantasy output with two touchdowns in Week 2. But overall, things are looking bleak for the Bengals. Of course, a healthy Burrow immediately brings the offense back to elite form. Although "The Bengals Offense" is "trending down" in this week's article, their pieces should be trade targets for strong teams who can withstand short-term bumpy production. But if you're sitting at 0-2 and holding onto hope, it may take a few more weeks for this team to get right.

RB Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson is the closest thing we'll get to a workhorse in today's NFL, and that's bad news for Antonio Gibson. Robinson was expected to take on the early-down work in Washington, so out-touching Gibson on the ground 37-to-5 is no surprise. But Robinson taking on more targets is an interesting development. On top of seeing more work, he's also been more efficient per yard, both through the air and on the ground. Gibson is currently PPR's RB51 and would likely need an injury to Robinson or a trade to find himself in a fantasy-relevant role. For now, he belongs on your bench.

WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers

On a limited workload in Week 1, Doubs corralled two touchdowns and provided a stellar fantasy day. Off the injury report and with no Christian Watson, he was expected to follow that performance with another big outing in Week 2. Despite an increased snap share, his targets and fantasy output dipped, indicating that Week 1's outcome may have been a mirage. Instead, rookie Jayden Reed led the team in targets, finding the end zone twice. His touches were schemed up to get him the ball in space, a sign that the team wants him to be more involved. With Watson expected to return in Week 3, Doubs could quickly find himself as the odd man out. If there's any chance to cash in on his Week 1 boom, it's probably best to do it soon.

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