25 Running Back Values

Footballguys Staff's 25 Running Back Values Footballguys Staff Published 08/09/2022

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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. Value is available throughout a draft; grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.

Here are the players who received the most votes:

And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.

Players Receiving 5 Votes

Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas

Matt Waldman: The tendency to overrate Tony Pollard for his athletic ability and highlight-reel moments against defenses focused elsewhere sets the stage for us to underrated Elliott's ability to earn hard yards against defenses playing to stop him. Pollard is a good back who could deliver top production with high volume, but the idea he's better than Elliott is rooted in the misguided notion mentioned above. Elliott is still in his prime years, physically. He may not have a top-three upside, but he still has a top-15 overall floor. Safe and productive and closer to top-five value than most think.

Jason Wood: Some would have you believe Elliott fell off the cliff last year, but he finished as the No. 6-ranked fantasy tailback. While his per-touch efficiency is on a four-year decline, he was coming from such a high level that it doesn't matter, particularly at his discounted ADP. Those expecting Tony Pollard to grab a larger share are basing that more on hope than evidence. Elliott is being paid to be the franchise cornerstone, and more importantly, Jerry Jones still wants Elliott to be the offensive engine. Until Jerry gives up on Elliott, he will continue amassing carries and every red zone opportunity the Cowboys can muster.

Chad Parsons: Elliott has been a top-15 fantasy running back every season, including in 2021 when playing through an injury for a chunk of the season. Leading the ground game for one of the better offenses in the NFL, Elliott has an all-time profile for production through his early years, and his draft cost has waned into the double-digits of the position. Elliott is one of the easy value plays of the position.

Gary Davenport: There's no denying that Elliott's per-carry effectiveness has waned as his career has progressed—he averaged under 60 rushing yards per game last year for the first time in his career. But that playing with a partially torn PCL much of the year, and even then, Elliott topped 1,000 rushing yards, scored 10 rushing touchdowns and finished the season as a top-10 running back. Fantasy managers may clamor for Tony Pollard to get a bigger piece of the backfield workload, but to date, the Cowboys have given no sign that Elliott won't be the clear-cut top back. Provided he can stay healthy, Elliott is a bargain in the middle of Round 3.

Andy Hicks: Ezekiel Elliott finished as the 6th-ranked fantasy back in 2021. This was considered disappointing. One of the few big-name backs to play all 17 games, Elliott played through niggling injuries and had five games with ten or fewer carries. Tony Pollard is likely to play more receiver routes. Expect the full workload for Elliott to resume with the PCL issue dealt with. Improvement on the offensive line is expected, and a fully fit Elliott could, for once in his career, be viewed as undervalued. He is being drafted at his floor. An easy choice.

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta

Matt Waldman: I'm not expecting Tyler Allgeier to be as much of a factor as Atlanta hopes. Damien Williams essentially fits the Mike Davis role for a weak run-blocking offensive line when it runs zone concepts. It leaves Patterson the opportunity to repeat what he did for Atlanta this year. He's a good gap runner, and that fits what the Falcons' unit does best. If I were the opposing defensive coordinator, I'd let Marcus Mariota check the ball to Patterson all day. Considering the receiving corps, look for opponents to focus on Kyle Pitts, and get pressure on Mariota behind a weak offensive line unit. This will lead to game scripts where Patterson leads the dink-and-dunk parade as a receiver.

Jason Wood: Patterson was an improbable fantasy star in his first season with the Falcons. The gadget player had finished 70th or worse in seven of eight seasons before last year's star turn in Arthur Smith's offense. Patterson morphed into a two-way lynchpin and finished as the 12th-ranked fantasy running back. While many wondered if he would be a one-year wonder, the Falcons jettisoned Mike Davis this offseason and only added rookie Tyler Allgeier out of BYU in the fifth round. While Allgeier has good size (5-foot-11, 220 pounds), he's a plodder without the pedigree or draft capital to credibly threaten an established veteran who was one of only two bright spots on the field last year.

Jeff Haseley: People will tend to overlook Patterson due to his age (31), but he has only 320 career carries, averaging 5.1 yards per tote. That's fewer than almost any other fantasy back in the league. To make things more appealing, he was drafted as a first-round wide receiver talent. He has the tools to be the ultimate weapon, and Atlanta has figured out how to utilize him best. Don't be afraid of Tyler Allgeier or Damien Williams. Patterson is the guy they want and the one they will utilize. He was a fantasy weapon last year, and this year will be no different.

Anthony Amico: The arrival of Tyler Allgeier may cost Patterson some short-yardage work, but it also probably puts him in an ideal hybrid role for this team. The Falcons lack depth at pass-catcher behind Kyle Pitts and Drake London, meaning Patterson could finish third on this team in targets and be heavily in the rushing mix. He has a real starting-running-back upside if this happens.

Will Grant: Patterson represents a hybrid role where he will probably have 200+ touches this season, but most of them will be from the running back position instead of the wide receiver position. That gives Patterson a huge upside in PPR leagues as most running backs won't finish the season with more than 50 catches. While his age (31) probably limits the number of touches he'll get this season, the fact that there isn't much of a competition for the ball beyond Kyle Pitts means Patterson should have a decent floor as well. He's a great flex option for your fantasy team - especially in PPR leagues.

Player Receiving 3 Votes

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay

Chad Parsons: Ronald Jones II is gone and frankly was nothing more than a speed bump to Fournette enjoying the lead role attached to Tom Brady. The competition is a pair of third-round young backs in Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Rachaad White. Vaughn has shown little through two seasons, and White is an incoming rookie. Expect elite upside weekly from Fournette as the Buccaneers have the second-highest High Leverage Opportunity Score (combining goal-line carries and targets for running backs) over the past three seasons. Fournette is the perfect combination of talent, level of offense, and expected opportunity to be a strong RB1 for fantasy.

Ryan Hester: Fournette's role last season was that of an elite RB1. If he has 80% of that role again this year, he's still a bargain. He has an efficient offense that will score points in bunches, a quarterback who turns good defensive coverage into gains of 10+ yards via check-downs, and Fournette will be the drive finisher. He showed up to camp overweight but had slimmed back down when preseason camp started. And his primary competition is a rookie. On a team with the most veteran of veteran quarterbacks with Super Bowl aspirations, it's unlikely that Fournette loses much of his role. Don't overthink this one.

Victoria Geary: Fournette finished fifth in PPR scoring formats and third overall in points per game, even after missing the last few weeks of the fantasy season. Fournette is locked into a three-down role and has the trust of Tom Brady in pass protection. He could see even more looks in the passing game early in the season due to Chris Godwin's injury recovery timeline. Don't let the overweight camp story fool you: Fournette still has an elite RB1 upside every week on your roster.

Players Receiving 2 Votes

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James Conner, Arizona

Chad Parsons: Chase Edmonds departed this offseason, and Conner was already a strong starting running back to close last season, even with Edmonds still around. Conner is a two-way producer with a proven track record as a fantasy starter, still with a year or two in his expected window for more top seasons.

Will Grant: Conner finished last season with over 1100 yards from scrimmage and a surprising 18 touchdowns. With Chase Edmonds now in Miami, Conner has no real competition for carries this season. He should be a virtual lock for another 1200-yard, 15-touchdown season in 2022. He has top-12 fantasy running back potential with a high floor. Exactly the type of back you want high in the second round of your draft.

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore

Andy Hicks: J.K. Dobbins was poised for a breakout year in 2021 before tearing an ACL. He averaged 6 yards a carry on 134 rushing attempts and nine touchdowns in 2020. His upside is ridiculously high. While Lamar Jackson is scaring defenses, Dobbins will just rack up yardage and fantasy points. Monitor reports from preseason for progress on his rehabilitated knee, but early signs are good.

Will Grant: Baltimore's backfield was a hot mess last season as most of them couldn't stay healthy. Dobbins finished strong in 2020 and was poised for an excellent season before he was lost for the year and never saw a snap. The RBBC from Baltimore last year still averaged over 4.2 YPC, and a healthy Dobbins should do even better. With Gus Edwards still on the PUP list and a question to make the season opener, Dobbins is set to get the bulk of the backfield work this year for the Ravens. He's a decent option as your second running back.

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis

Ben Cummins: The Colts have stated they want to get Nyheim Hines more involved this year, and that drumbeat has been steady all offseason. This is news we should listen to. The coaching staff loves Hines, and the organization has him under contract until 2024 (there is a potential out after this season, though). New quarterback, Matt Ryan, is a check-down artist at this stage of his career and will improve Hines’ receiving production in 2022.

Sam Wagman: Hines is a very good sleeper option at the running back slot to receive a consistent weekly workload. Head coach Frank Reich has stated multiple times this offseason his intent to give Hines more of a workload this year, calling him a “special talent.” Throughout camp, Hines has been seen lining in the slot and in the backfield, it is clear that he will be featured alongside Jonathan Taylor as the Colts look to make a run.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland

Matt Waldman: I could see the Browns trading Hunt to a team that needs a starter, and that team wants the first shot to re-sign him after the season. This would increase Hunt's value immediately. Presently, Hunt has solid RB2 value with elite RB1 upside based on his current split with Nick Chubb behind a top offensive line and the potential for Hunt to be the lead back due to a Chubb injury. Many underrate Hunt's high ceiling, role, and supporting talent because they overvalue upside in the early rounds from lesser talents without the supporting talent and/or role.

Jeff Haseley: As long as Kareem Hunt keeps a decent touchdown-to-games-played ratio, I am taking advantage of his discount. Hunt has 44 touchdowns in 59 career games. I'll gladly take that as my RB3 or RB4. His calf and ankle injury slowed him last year, which is another reason he's falling. I'll buy at the discounted rate.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay

Sam Wagman: Even with A.J. Dillon splitting snaps with Jones this year and most likely taking a lead in carries, Jones still projects as a very solid fantasy option for the Packers this season. We've seen him put up 500+ receiving yards before, but this year could be a truly special receiving season for Jones. Without Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling returning, there is a possibility Jones could be the de facto WR1 for the team this year. He is a trusted weapon for Aaron Rodgers. While the team drafted Christian Watson early in the second round, rookies have not historically performed well with Rodgers, and I expect Watson to have a steep learning curve.

Victoria Geary: Wide receiver Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders for the 2022 season, leaving Aaron Rodgers with only a select few players he can trust - Jones is one of them. In eight career games without Adams on the field, Jones saw an average of two more targets and 31 more receiving yards per game, scoring 23 PPR points per game. He's an elite pass catcher and will likely turn into Mr. Necessary, as the Packers' wide receiver room is fairly bleak outside of Allen Lazard.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans

Gary Davenport: There's risk involved in drafting Kamara—an offseason arrest in Vegas for assault could earn him a suspension for violating the personal conduct policy. But Kamara's next hearing in the matter isn't until the end of September, and the case may drag well into 2023. Last year Kamara failed to hit 80 receptions for the first time in his career, but even so, he surpassed 1,300 total yards, scored nine touchdowns, and finished 2021 inside the top-10 running backs in PPR points. It's not that often that a fantasy RB1 is available at the top of Round 3. Take advantage of the discount.

Christian Williams: Alvin Kamara's ADP has remained low due to the threat of suspension, but as Drew Davenport has pointed out, his legal situation is shaping up to be 2023 rather than a 2022 issue. At RB14, Kamara is one of the last remaining players on draft boards that possesses overall RB1 upside. With the return of Michael Thomas and the additions of Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave, the Saints' offense should succeed in 2022. A lot rides on Jameis Winston's effectiveness, but Kamara succeeded when defenses focused solely on him. Kamara should still see a high volume of pass-catching work while possessing a higher touchdown upside and could finish inside the Top 5 in 2022.

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco

Jeff Haseley: There may be some early uncertainty surrounding the 49ers' lead running back this year, but I'm here to tell you that won't be the case. Mitchell is the lead back, and it all stems from his speed. He is the fastest running back on the roster, and Kyle Shanahan loves to utilize players with speed. He had nine games with 17+ carries last year. In those nine games, he scored at least one touchdown in six of them. Mitchell is the guy you want in the 49ers backfield, and he is an excellent RB2 or RB3 who can produce consistent results.

Christian Williams: Misconceptions about the 49ers' backfield consistently give their RBs value, and assuming total health, Elijah Mitchell could be the best in the Shanahan era. Mitchell ranks 2nd in rushing market share, 1st in carries per game, 1st in yards per game, and 2nd in points per game finish among 49ers' running backs since 2017 when Kyle Shanahan arrived in San Francisco. Mitchell had an 83.4% share of running back touches in the games in which he was healthy. Shanahan showed he wants to use Mitchell as a workhorse, yet he has an ADP of RB24. If Mitchell stays on the field, he could finish in the Top 12 and be one of the draft's best values.

Rashaad Penny, Seattle

Matt Waldman: Penny was a star athlete from SDSU's gap scheme -- a "fill-in-the-blank" decision-making process —and joined a Seattle team that ran a lot of "multiple choice" zone concepts. Although Penny's athletic ability occasionally showed up in a big way, it took him a couple of years to acclimate to a new decision-making process. Health was another issue. When Penny finally returned to the field, he played to his first-round ability. The loss of Russell Wilson may limit advantageous game scripts, but Penny is in store for a starter workload. With his big-play ability, he still has top-15 upside at the position, if not top-10.

Christian Williams: Saying that Rashaad Penny finished the 2021 season strong is an understatement. Over his final five games, he averaged 134 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. Penny ran with the burst he hadn't shown much since college, the vision among the NFL's best, and the agility of a player much smaller than him. He looked like one of the best running backs in the NFL. The Seahawks drafted Ken Walker in the 2nd round, but if Penny builds on his performances over the last five weeks, Walker won't see a starting role until 2023. Penny's ADP currently sits at RB29, and in the Seahawks' wide zone scheme and assuming total health, he could finish at least ten spots higher when the season concludes.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Christian Williams: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers invested Day 2 capital in the running back position for the second time in three years, and they got it right this time. Rachaad White was a pass-catching machine at Arizona State over the last two years, earning 16% and 21% market shares of receptions in his only two years at the university. White is also an excellent runner, with fantastic patience, vision, and burst. His athletic profile suggests that he could be a big-play back, something the Buccaneers don't currently have in their running back room. White's pass blocking has been a point of discussion, but assuming he can continue to refine his technique, a third-down, pass-catching role is likely for the former Sun Devil. Pass-catching running backs in Tom Brady-led offenses are typically fantasy goldmines.

Anthony Amico: Leonard Fournette has crushed in this offense, so it is possible that White finds himself as more of a true handcuff in 2022, but that should not deter us from drafting him in bulk. This offense produces a ton of fantasy points for running backs, and White was one of the most adept pass-catchers in the 2022 draft class. There is some chance he earns a decent-sized role without an injury and would be one hamstring strain away from RB1 production.

Players Receiving 1 Vote

Cam Akers, L.A. Rams

Ryan Hester: Akers was inefficient in postseason return from his Achilles injury. But the fact that he even made that return should be celebrated. And an offseason of more recovery time should yield improvement over the player we saw in the Rams' Super Bowl run. This offense will be balanced, efficient, and potent. And Akers should be the lead back. He's capable of playing every down. The lack of clarity at wide receiver behind Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson leaves some additional receptions to be distributed to other positions, from which Akers should benefit.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland

Andy Hicks: Nick Chubb is not getting the fantasy stats his production deserves. He is a rare talent at the position and just needs touchdowns or more work as a receiver to be a fantasy stud. His yards per carry for running backs with over 500 career carries is third all-time behind Bo Jackson and Jamaal Charles. Yes, he is ahead of Jim Brown. At some stage, he is going to be a fantasy monster. Invest now as the quarterback drama and lack of receiver talent means utilization of Chubb is a certainty.

James Cook, Buffalo

Ryan Hester: Buffalo's running back situation is clear as mud, but that's priced in with both Cook and Devin Singletary. Both are values simply for betting on one of them taking over as the lead. Consider this a bet on Cook's talent -- especially as a pass-catcher.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay

Ryan Hester: Aaron Jones is being drafted higher than Dillon, and he should be. But the gap between the two shouldn't be as big. In the back half last season, Dillon was used more and more, including the closer role in games Green Bay led and the goal line running role. Jones will catch far more passes -- especially with Green Bay's lack of proven wide receiver depth -- but Dillon could score more rushing touchdowns and will likely rush for more yardage than Jones. And until proven otherwise, an offense led by Aaron Rodgers will be an efficient one with plenty of chances to cross the goal line.

Chase Edmonds, Miami

Andy Hicks: Miami has a crowded backfield with Chase Edmonds joined by Sony Michel and Raheem Mostert in free agency, with Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed already there. The new coaching staff made it a priority to upgrade the moribund offense. The key to this was adding Tyreek Hill in a blockbuster trade. Hill creates opportunities for all others. If we follow the money at running back, Edmonds has the biggest paycheck and should be given the first opportunity to start. At his current draft price, grabbing Edmonds is high-reward, low-risk.

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville

Jason Wood: Etienne was the forgotten man in early best-ball drafts, but the value arbitrage window will close quickly once the preseason gets underway and beat writers remind the world of his vision, explosiveness, and quickness. After a rookie season lost to injury, Etienne steps into Doug Pederson's offense as the clear-cut No. 1 tailback and arguably the team's No. 1 overall offensive cog. His chemistry with Trevor Lawrence from their days at Clemons ensures a heavy workload regardless of down and distance.

Melvin Gordon, Denver

Ben Cummins: I expect the Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon split to end up being closer to 70/30 as the season goes on in favor of Williams, but even so, this ADP for Gordon is ridiculous. Gordon showed last season he’s still a solid running back and now gets to play in a much-improved offense led by Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett. Gordon offers the solid combination of weekly consistency and one of the highest contingency values in all of fantasy football should something happen to Javonte Williams.

Breece Hall, NY Jets

Sam Wagman: Hall was drafted to be the team's workhorse running back, and I expect him to assume that position directly from the start. He is the most athletically polished running back to come out of college in some time with a near-perfect Relative Athletic Score. While he'll cede some passing down work to Michael Carter early in the season, he should be able to assume that role down the stretch as he is a sufficient pass catcher and can do his part in the pass protection scheme. The Jets have the rushing scheme to make him a successful back.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas

Chad Parsons: The Raiders did not pick up Jacobs' fifth-year option for 2023, and plenty are fading Jacobs (in redraft and dynasty) as a result. However, the Raiders have been one of the strongest teams in high-leverage running back opportunities over the past three years and were tops in the category (goal-line carries and targets for running backs) in 2021. Jacobs' competition is an eroding Kenyan Drake and Day 3 Zamir White of note. Jacobs has yet to hit a big ceiling, but Round 1 running backs are sturdy bets even later in their rookie contracts to hit as an RB1.

David Montgomery, Chicago

Jason Wood: The best ability is availability, so, understandably, David Montgomery would have his critics. He missed four games last year, capping his fantasy value; he finished as the 20th-ranked running back. But the Bears' offense was woeful last year, and Montgomery succeeded despite everything stacked against him. He's healthy entering training camp, has a new coaching staff sure to improve on an uninspired and predictable offense, and even if the passing game improves modestly, he'll have more room to run.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo

Gary Davenport: Singletary topped 1,000 total yards for the first time in 2021, and down the stretch, the Bills gave him a featured workload—over the last four games of the regular season, he averaged 21 touches a game, topped 100 total yards twice and scored more PPR points than any running back in the league. That pace probably isn't sustainable over a full season, with James Cook likely stealing some passing-down work and Zack Moss mixing in. But Singletary remains the No. 1 back for arguably the best offense in the entire league. And getting a back with that potential upside in mid-range RB3 territory is a value.

Isaiah Spiller, LA Chargers

Sam Wagman: Spiller didn't get the draft capital most people thought he would get, but he landed in a terrific situation. Austin Ekeler is known for being one of the more transparent NFL players to fantasy footballers and told us that he would like some backfield help. The Chargers brass listened and got him Spiller to help spell him and presumably take some other backfield duties. Make no mistake, Spiller is a great handcuff for Ekeler. He has the requisite size for goal-line work and is also a solid pass-catcher. Ekeler has had minor nicks and bruises over the years, so Spiller could easily hop into an RB1 role if anything happens to Ekeler. Through camp so far, Spiller has been a tier ahead of the other RB2 options in Josh Kelly and Larry Rountree.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England

Will Grant: Stevenson is part of a true RBBC in New England, but with James White still on the PUP, Stevenson's split with Damien Harris should be nearly even. Yet, in most fantasy drafts, Harris is going significantly higher than Stevenson for some reason. Stevenson should approach 200 total touches this season, with a couple of receptions every game contributing to his totals. He's a solid third running back/flex option for your team and is a great value at his current draft position.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
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