Thursday Showdown Week 17

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Dallas Cowboys are heading to Tennessee to take on the Titans as a 10.5-point favorite. The game total is set at 40.5. Draftkings has practically begged us to build around four Cowboys and two cheap Titans, with the one caveat being Derrick Henry. Unfortunately, that’s the build we’re likely forced to go with. Joshua Dobbs will be drawing his first-ever NFL start after the Titans signed him last week and named him starter a mere hours before kickoff.. We’re working hard to hit on a Titans’ receiver but getting two in the optimal lineup is going to be a tall task. On the opposite side of the ball, Dak Prescott is spreading the ball enough that we should have no problem heavily stacking him while remaining unique.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Tony Pollard – Thigh – Out
• Ryan Tannehill – Ankle – Out
• Derrick Henry – Hip – Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Dak Prescott
3. Ezekiel Elliottt
4. Michael Gallup
5. Hassan Haskins

DALLAS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott $10,600 – Captain or Flex

The Cowboys' ground game has gotten hot at the right time, but Prescott is still averaging nearly 35 attempts over the last 3 games. He’s thrown three touchdowns in each of his last two games. He’s also rushed at least five times in his last three. All signs point up for Prescott’s performance heading into Week 17.

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliott $8,800 – Captain or Flex

Elliott has splitting the backfield work 50/50 with Pollard, but he is not as involved in the passing game. Even with Pollard inactive, Elliott's third-down usage is likely to remain low.The trade-off is that he has scored at least one touchdown in each game since Week 6. Elliott has a good chance at 20-plus carries and is likely to score a touchdown.

Malik Davis $200 - Flex

Malik Davis is the primary benefactor of Pollard's inactive status. He will see roughly 40% of the snaps at minimum price. With so many cheap options, Davis may still come in underutilized relative to the roster percentage he deserves.

RECEIVER

CeeDee Lamb $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Lamb is coming off back-to-back games with at least 120 receiving yards. He’s played at least 85% of the snaps over the last three weeks. In a week where we’re heavily stacking Prescott, we will want plenty of exposure to Lamb.

Michael Gallup $7,000 – Captain or Flex

The secondary receivers were largely unaffected by the activation of T.Y. Hilton. Gallup played 84% of the snaps and was targeted seven times. He’s averaged over five targets per game but has not been shy about letdown performances. His roster percentage should be palatable, and he is a better stacking option than Dalton Schultz in the same price range and worth at least considering at Captain to fit more expensive options in the Flex.

Dalton Schultz $6,600 – Flex

Schultz had one 10-target performance in Week 14 that made it appear as though he was back, but he’s been targeted just eight times over the last two weeks. He is playing nearly every down, and the Cowboys have decreased their two-tight end sets ever so slightly. He’s a fine play at cost, but if choosing just one of Prescott’s receivers in this range, I lean toward Gallup.

Noah Brown $5,200 – Flex

If anyone is going to lose snaps the T.Y. Hilton, it would be Brown, but it is unlikely the Cowboys do that before the playoffs. Brown came through in Week 15 with 6 receptions for 49 yards and two touchdowns. His role as a starter should be solidified by now, with him playing at least 70% of the snaps in every healthy game. He will carry the lowest roster percentage of all Cowboys receivers and has an enticing ceiling at cost.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

T.Y. Hilton $4,400 – Flex

I’ve yet to see any reports of Hilton’s usage increasing this week. He’s too expensive given last week’s workload.

Jake Ferguson $2,400 – Flex

Ferguson’s snaps jumped to 21% last week after he missed one game due to injury. In large field tournaments, I recommend exposure to all four Dallas tight ends.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Joshua Dobbs - $6,000 - Flex

Dobbs will get the last-minute start after being signed to the Titans' active roster barely a week ago. While his price is attractive and he has rushing upside, Dobbs will be extremely tough to start in this situation with the Titans offense in shambles.

RUNNING BACK

Hassan Haskins $3,000 – Captain or Flex

With Henry declared inactive, Haskins is now the best play on the slate based on his salary. He will be rostered heavily, but playing him at Captain while leaving tons of salary on the table would help with creating unique lineups.

RECEIVER

Treylon Burks $5,400 – Flex

Burks was targeted twice but was not able to connect with Willis. On the bright side, he beat his season-high snap share by 20%. We already were not feeling good about clicking on any of the Titans’ receiving options, but now that Dobbs is the starter and with the Titans as 10.5-point home underdogs, they will have to pass at least slightly higher than normal. Burks is the preferred Titans’ wide receiver if choosing one.

Robert Woods $5,000 – Flex

Woods also handled a full snap share and connected with Willis 4 times for 30 yards, but Dobbs is an unknown commodity here. He is just as strong of an option as Burks, but expect him to carry a higher roster percentage.

Chigoziem Okonkwo $4,800 – Flex

Okonkwo had a strong four-week stretch with Tannehill before his Week 15 injury. Last week he played just under 50% of the snaps and was targeted twice. If Dobbs finds any success in the passing category, it will likely include Okonkwo and his yards-after-catch.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $4,600 – Flex

Westbrook-Ikhine falls in a price range close to the kickers and defenses where he may go overlooked, similar to Okonkwo. He’s still handling a full-time role and is worth having some exposure to in Cowboys stacks that could use some uniqueness.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Racey McMath $200 – Flex

With so little faith in Willis as a passer, we can bet against the Titans entirely and go down to McMath at minimum price. He should see around 20% of the snaps and will barely be rostered.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:

Cowboys onslaughts will be more popular than we normally see for 5-1 lineups. Be sure to strongly consider their defense in those builds. Typically we see higher roster percentages for the underdog kickers with spreads this large. Maher is worth rostering even in Dallas heavy builds as they could easily cover this spread on their own.