Thursday Showdown Week 11

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Tennessee Titans are heading to Green Bay to take on the Packers as 3-point underdogs. The game total is set at 41. We’ve got two of the most effective running games in the league going head-to-head in a low total game. Ryan Tannehill is back after a brief injury absence, which is at least a bit of good news to go along with the return of Treylon Burks. For the Packers' offense, DraftKings did us a favor and priced up both viable receivers, making it less likely that either of them becomes too chalky. Typically, I’m looking to stack the favorites, but I’m not buying a Packers win here. Instead, I’ll stick to more balanced builds.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Ryan Tannehill – Ankle – Full Participant
• Randy Bullock – Calf – Did Not Participate
• Allen Lazard – Shoulder – Limited
• Aaron Jones – Shin – Limited

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Derrick Henry
2. Aaron Jones
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Allen Lazard

TENNESSEE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Ryan Tannehill $9,600 – Flex

Ryan Tannehill is expected to get his second consecutive start on Thursday night after returning from injury on Sunday. While he hasn’t been very effective as a passer throughout the season, he was certainly a boost for the passing offense. Malik Willis attempted 26 total passes over his two starts. Tannehill attempted 36 passes just last week. With Tannehill priced under $10,000 and the expected low roster percentage of the Titans receives, we’ve got an opportunity to be unique by including Tennessee’s passing game.

RUNNING BACK

Derrick Henry $11,600 – Captain or Flex

Derrick Henry totaled his third-lowest rushing attempts in Tannehill’s Week 10 return, but it doesn’t directly correlate as he totaled his second-lowest rushing attempts in week 9 with Willis. It appears over the past two weeks that Henry has not been as involved, which is reasonable considering the three games before Week 9, he averaged 30 attempts. His snaps have come down as well, but he hasn’t given up any touches. Ultimately, he’s still getting around 20 touches and is an excellent play, but we can give a slight boost to the notion that Tannehill may also be a strong play.

Dontrell Hilliard $3,200 – Flex

Dontrell Hilliard has had a couple of impressive performances both as a rusher and as a receiver this year. As recent as Week 8, he handled eight carries for 83 yards, but he played just 16% of the snaps. Last week his snap share jumped up to a season-high 26%, but he was given just three opportunities. Hilliard is essentially a discounted Kenneth Gainwell meaning he will get a few meaningful opportunities on a small snap share.

RECEIVER

Robert Woods $6,800 - Flex

Robert Woods has been operating as the de facto top wide receiver all season but has only had a handful of games with more than four targets. Last week was one of them, where Tannehill targeted Woods seven times, but they only connected on two. The fact that Tannehill passed over 30 times in a low-scoring game and targeted Woods at a reasonable rate gives hope to all the Titan’s receivers. Woods is my second favorite among Titans receivers.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $6,200 – Flex

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine typically plays around 70% of the snaps, but he had not been a huge target earner until last week. Fortunately for us, DraftKings priced him up to $6,200 after his five receptions for 119 yards and two touchdowns last week. He would be a strong play at $6,200 had he not blown up last week. Like Christian Watson, we have an entire year of data supporting a limited role and one week of elite production. Westbrook-Ikhine is still in the player pool but is my third favorite option as his roster percentage will be relatively high.

Treylon Burks $5,200 – Flex

Treylon Burks returned to the lineup last week to the tune of six targets. He caught just three of them for 24 yards. Burks carries the lowest salary and should be the lowest rostered, yet he has the highest ceiling. Instead of chasing a big performance from Westbrook-Ikhine or a large role for Woods, I’d rather be early on a Burks breakout game.

Austin Hooper $4,600 – Flex

Austin Hooper is one of the big indicators of an identity shift for the Titans. He’s had a small target share all year, with and without Tannehill. With Tannehill’s return, he saw a season-high seven targets. I prefer both kickers and defenses in this range, but Hooper’s increased usage might indicate a few more passing attempts to be expected for the rest of the year.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Chigoziem Okonkwo $2,600 – Flex

Chigoziem Okonkwo is my preferred option amongst the Titans tight ends. He demonstrated his athleticism two weeks ago when he quite literally put his team on his back for a 50-yard gain at the start of the game. He’s been targeted multiple times over the past three weeks, and his role will continue to grow.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers $10,400 – Captain or Flex

The Packers got back in the win column last week with just 20 attempts from Aaron Rodgers. Fortunately for fantasy managers, three of those attempts went for touchdowns. Over the previous seven games, Rodgers passed at least 30 times, but Green Bay was losing, Also, Rodgers has been battling an injured thumb. We’ve got a few indicators that Rodgers will have low passing volume again in a short week, but luckily, he’s a historically efficient passer. Expect Rodgers to pass at a low rate again but that doesn’t mean he won’t be viable in a low-total game.

RUNNING BACK

Aaron Jones $11,200 – Captain or Flex

Aaron Jones is battling a shin injury, though a ton of players find themselves on the injury report before Thursday night games. By all accounts the Packers lead back will be a full go. In what may be the blueprint for Packers' success, Jones rushed 24 times, beating his previous season's high by 4. His target share has been all over the map, so anything we get in the receiving game will be a bonus. With Jones being the lead back for a three-point favorite at home, expect his roster percentage to rival the highest of the slate.

A.J. Dillon $6,600 – Flex

A.J. Dillon has carried the ball at least 10 times in each of the last three games, but his snap share has been inconsistent. He hasn’t scored since week one, but we’d like to think he’s got some sort of touchdown upside, given his play style. Ultimately, he’s battling with all three Titan’s receivers who should have lower roster percentages and similar projections, so Dillon barely makes the player pool.

RECEIVER

Allen Lazard $8,600 – Captain or Flex

Allen Lazard has been playing through a shoulder injury but has been Rodger’s most reliable target all season. Last week he received his lowest target share since week one, which coincides perfectly with Watson’s breakout game. This puts us in a great position to go with Rodger’s top target Lazard at a lower roster percentage than Watson.

Christian Watson $7,400 – Flex

The field has gotten much sharper over the past couple of seasons so I’m not expecting an egregious overreaction to Watson’s performance last week. Watson is a perfect example of why we care so much about roster percentage on Showdown slates. If he had a modest game last week, and he was projected to have a reasonable roster percentage, he’d be in a great spot. If the field is expecting to get another eight targets from a player who hadn’t seen more than four targets all year, we will just fade him.

Sammy Watkins $4,800 – Flex

Sammy Watkins is a reasonable pivot off of Watson as he’s out-targeted him for most of the season and should see similar opportunity once again this week. Watkins’ ceiling is admittedly significantly lower than Watson’s but on a low-total Showdown slate, these are the plays we live for.

Robert Tonyan Jr $5,800 – Flex

Robert Tonyan Jr has played less than 65% of the snaps in every game but one, and his involvement has been minimal on most weeks. He should be priced closer to Hooper. He’s viable as a pay-up-to-be-contrarian play but isn’t a strong stacking option with Rodgers at his price.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership. Here is where the pre-season DFS column comes in. We have a plethora of players in the punt range who have decent shots to fall into the winning lineup. Here are just a few.

Josiah Deguara $1,800 – Flex

Josiah Deguara’s price continues to creep up as he maintains a meaningful role in the Packer’s offense. He’s a similar play to Noah Gray in that he’s not the starter and he’s not playing the majority of snaps but he’s a trusted part of the offense. I prefer Okonkwo in this range, but Deguara is viable for Packers stacks.

Samori Toure $1,200 – Flex

Samori Toure was targeted four times in weeks eight and nine and I expected that trend to continue after his huge touchdown grab late in the Bills game. Unfortunately, he was not targeted at all last week. He’s still viable as a deep punt play this week with a snap share of around 20%.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:

If Randy Bullock is inactive, I would typically be overweight on the backup kicker for the underdog Titans. Unfortunately the only other kicker DraftKings has listed for the Titans is also out, so we won’t be able to capitalize there. It’s still a situation to keep in mind.