Thursday Showdown Week 1

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest owned player.

GAME THEORY

After a crushing divisional-round loss, the Buffalo Bills open the season on the road as 1-point favorites over the defending Super Bowl Champion, LA Rams. The game total is set to 52.5. On a typical Thursday night, we may want the under, but these two teams have had weeks to prepare for this epic showdown. Much has been made of Matthew Stafford’s shoulder injury, but his two primary ball carries have also been dealing with soft tissue injuries. Although there may be up to 6 viable running backs by the end of this game, expect a pass-heavy approach from both teams. Josh Allen will be the most popular Captain and most lineup decisions will revolve around either stacking him or fading him.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Injury notes for week 1 are vague, as teams were not required to officially report before week 1.

Matthew Stafford – Shoulder – No limitations

Van Jefferson – Knee – Unlikely

Cam Akers – “Soft tissue” – No injury designation

Darrell Henderson – “Soft tissue” – No injury designation

Isaiah McKenzie – “Nicked up” – Expected to play

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. 1. Cooper Kupp
   2. Josh Allen
   3. Matthew Stafford
   4. Stefon Diggs
   5. Gabriel Davis
   6. Allen Robinson
   7. Devin Singletary

RAMS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Matthew Stafford $10,800 – Captain or Flex

Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a shoulder injury that has negatively impacted his off-season ADP. Some may shy away from him in week 1 until there is more clarity on the situation. Stafford dealt with this same injury last season with no limitations. If ever a week to be overweight on Stafford, this is it.

RUNNING BACK

Cam Akers $8,000 – Flex

Cam Akers's return to action for the Rams' Super Bowl run was commendable, but not glorious. After spending the 2022 offseason attempting to return to form from 2021’s preseason Achilles tear, Akers came away with a lower body soft tissue injury. He was declared “good to go” on September 3rd and enters week 1 with no injury designation; however, it is difficult to imagine he handles over 50% of the backfield given his recent injury woes.

Darrell Henderson $4,800 – Flex

Darrell Henderson dealt with a soft tissue injury during the same timeframe as Akers, but Henderson returned to practice two days before Akers. Both backs project for close to 50% of the backfield, yet Henderson is $2,200 cheaper. For Akers to pay off he needs the goal-line and pass-catching work. For Henderson to pay off, he does not need those high-value touches, but he has the upside to get them.

WIDE RECEIVER

Cooper Kupp $12,400 - Captain or Flex

While there are 7 players in Captain consideration, Cooper Kupp and Josh Allen are in a tier far above the rest. Kupp is $400 more than Allen and projects for a whopping 4.5 points less. Allen's Captain ownership projects to reach other-worldly heights, so pivoting to Kupp is a worthy proposition.

Allen Robinson $6,200 – Captain or Flex

There are not many data points to look at for Allen Robinson’s debut with the Rams. He doesn’t fit the Odell Beckham role or the Robert Woods role. Given this uncertainty, his ownership projection should be relatively tame, and his price tag is plenty palatable to be worth the risk. He projects slightly better than the higher-owned, and more expensive Gabriel Davis.

Tyler Higbee $5,600 – Flex

Tyler Higbee saw promising tight end usage in 2021 but failed to make good on his opportunities. His lack of production caused his 2022 ADP to plummet. The hope is for that negative valuation to seep into week 1 ownership. Higbee is a quality mid-price option for Rams heavy builds as well as a unique run-back option for Bills onslaughts.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Kyren Williams $1,400 – Flex

Kyren Williams is a unique injury punt for large field tournaments given both Akers and Henderson have been battling soft tissue injuries as recently as last week. McVay has spoken glowingly about Williams all offseason and has even eluded to the potential of a third-down role as early as week 1.

Ben Skowronek $1,000 – Flex

When Van Jefferson was battling injury last season, Ben Skowronek was the one-for-one swap. McVay has dished out some standard coach speak on Skowronek's behalf, but it is TuTu Atwell who has been given the real glowing praise.

Tutu Atwell $1,000 – Flex

Without any preseason action to point to, we're stuck wondering whether or not we trust McVay to capitalize on his positive reviews for Atwell. We know the Rams had high ambitions for Atwell given the reach they made for him in the 2021 draft. We just haven't seen it culminate in any meaningful way.

BILLS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen $12,000 - Captain or Flex

Josh Allen is the tide that raises all ships. Since Allen’s projection is 4.5 points higher than Kupp’s and 5 points higher than Stafford’s, expect lineups to gravitate towards 4-5 Bills. Get contrarian by pairing Allen with one lower-owned Bills pass catcher and 4 Rams.

RUNNING BACK

Devin Singletary $7,000 – Captain or Flex

Devin Singletary finished 2021 flipping the script on Bills running back usage. His volume increased so dramatically from weeks 14-17 that it is difficult to put a finger on the reasoning. The important note is that he made good on the increased workload. Singletary is $1,000 less than Akers and is more secure in his role. James Cook is likely the best Bills back long term, but expect him to come on slow.

James Cook $2,800 – Flex

James Cook will need time to completely overtake the Bills backfield, but at $2,800 he doesn’t need much. Cook’s projected usage is predominantly speculative, but with the Bills failed effort to sign J.D. Mckissic before drafting Cook, the hope is for a more receiver-friendly role. Cook’s floor is enough to cover his cost, but his ceiling would make him the best play of the slate.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs $9,000 - Captain or Flex

Stefon Diggs is likely to carry his 26% target share over into 2022. At $9,000 Diggs is a strong play for any build. His ownership in 2021 typically hovered around 35%. To create a unique lineup, play Diggs at Captain with Allen in the Flex, paired with 4 Rams.

Gabriel Davis $7,200 – Captain or Flex

The last time Gabriel Davis saw game-day action, he had over 200 yards and caught 4 touchdowns. As the most polarizing player on the slate, his ownership projection is crucial. If his projection lands over 35% he is a reasonable fade, with an easy pivot to Robinson for less cost and ownership.

Isaiah McKenzie $2,400 – Flex

Isaiah McKenzie would have been a much better play had he not been formally announced as the starter over Jamison Crowder. Now at $2,400 McKenzie might be the chalk we are forced to eat. His point-per-dollar projection is too strong to pass up at any ownership. While it will be tempting to be heavily invested in lineups including both Cook and McKenzie, that will leave a narrow window for uniqueness. Instead, stick with either McKenzie or Cook and try to creatively stack Allen.

Dawson Knox $6,800 – Flex

Dawson Knox borders on not making the player pool at $6,800. He is in the same price range as Singletary, Robinson, and Davis, who all carry higher median projections. Knox is fine in tournaments given his low ownership, but the same can be said of Higbee and Henderson who are both cheaper with similar projections.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Jamison Crowder $5,000 – Flex

Jamison Crowder lost the starting slot gig to McKenzie, but that does not mean the veteran free-agent signing will get no work. Crowder is priced in a range where he will be hardly rostered while having a realistic shot to see more targets than McKenzie.

Zack Moss $3,000 – Flex

Zack Moss is no more than a leverage play over Cooks’ ownership in large field tournaments. There is a world where Cook receives the rookie treatment behind two veterans, and Moss gets the goal-line work.