Thursday Showdown Week 1

Photo: USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest owned player.

GAME THEORY

After a crushing divisional-round loss, the Buffalo Bills open the season on the road as 1-point favorites over the defending Super Bowl Champion, LA Rams. The game total is set to 52.5. On a typical Thursday night, we may want the under, but these two teams have had weeks to prepare for this epic showdown. Much has been made of Matthew Stafford’s shoulder injury, but his two primary ball carries have also been dealing with soft tissue injuries. Although there may be up to 6 viable running backs by the end of this game, expect a pass-heavy approach from both teams. Josh Allen will be the most popular Captain and most lineup decisions will revolve around either stacking him or fading him.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Injury notes for week 1 are vague, as teams were not required to officially report before week 1.

Matthew Stafford – Shoulder – No limitations

Van Jefferson – Knee – Unlikely

Cam Akers – “Soft tissue” – No injury designation

Darrell Henderson – “Soft tissue” – No injury designation

Isaiah McKenzie – “Nicked up” – Expected to play

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. 1. Cooper Kupp
   2. Josh Allen
   3. Matthew Stafford
   4. Stefon Diggs
   5. Gabriel Davis
   6. Allen Robinson
   7. Devin Singletary

RAMS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Matthew Stafford $10,800 – Captain or Flex

Matthew Stafford has been dealing with a shoulder injury that has negatively impacted his off-season ADP. Some may shy away from him in week 1 until there is more clarity on the situation. Stafford dealt with this same injury last season with no limitations. If ever a week to be overweight on Stafford, this is it.