Sunday Showdown Week 18

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Detroit Lions are heading to Green Bay to take on the Packers as 4.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 49. The Lions are an incredibly balanced offense in terms of pass rate, but it’s overshadowed by how efficient they are through the air. We’re going to want to lean heavily on the Lions’ passing attack, but the issue is just how obscure Detroit’s passing depth is. Aside from Amon-Ra St. Brown, we don’t feel great about any of their receivers. We’ll look to stack Rodgers with some of his lower-rostered receiving options so we can comfortably fit the more popular Lions.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Josiah Deguara – Calf – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown
2. Jared Goff
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. A.J. Dillon
5. Aaron Jones

DETRIOT OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jared Goff $9,600 – Captain or Flex

Last week’s win over the Bears broke a 5-game streak of 30 or more pass attempts for Goff. It didn’t seem to matter as he still passed for 255 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s hit the 300-yard-bonus 5 times while passing for at least 3 touchdowns another 5 times. He’s got one of the safest floors and highest ceilings of the slate while being priced under $10,000. In small field tournaments, he will not land in the Captain spot because of how few of his receivers I’m looking to play. In large-field multi-entry tournaments, he can be used as Captain while cycling through various stacking combinations with his lower-rostered receivers.

RUNNING BACK

DAndre Swift $7,600 – Flex

Over the last three games, Swift is averaging roughly 43% of the snaps and just over 14 opportunities. He’s the preferred option in this backfield due to his receiving ability.

Jamaal Williams $7,000 – Flex

Williams is getting the better side of the 50/50 split with Swift, but he’s working differently. He’s one of the top touchdown scorers in the league, but most of his scores have come within the five-yard line. He’s viable even at cost based on his ability to score multiple touchdowns.

Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown $11,000 – Captain or Flex

St. Brown is one of the league leaders in target market share. Last week looked disappointing, but Goff attempted less than 30 passes. St. Brown still bolsters elite opportunity and is viably paired with Goff in Packers-heavy builds.

D.J. Chark $5,800 – Flex

Chark is one of the most volatile plays on the slate. It helps that he is in a middling price range that the field tends to ignore, to begin with. He’s plenty liable to produce less than 5 points, but he’s also got a 100-yard upside and will carry a low roster percentage.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Jameson Williams $2,400 - Flex

Jameson Williams has come on slow after missing most of the season with the knee injury he suffered at Alabama. We haven’t seen him put it all together yet, but it’s coming. He’s had a designed play in every week he’s been active and was targeted three times last game. He’s worth considering as a dart throw.

Josh Reynolds $1,800 – Flex

There are so many viable passing options for the Lions that their roster percentages will be evenly split. Reynolds is playing over 50% of the snaps in their third wide receiver spot. He is the best punt play on the slate.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Rodgers has been uncharacteristically inefficient for large parts of the season. Over the last three games he’s played better, but he has not had that vintage game we’ve all been waiting for. If anyone is going to push him to open up the passing game, it would be this Detroit offense. Everyone expects the Packers to have success on the ground, but they will also need to succeed through the air to keep up with the Lions.

RUNNING BACK

Aaron Jones $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Jones has been limited in practice again this week, but he is not on the injury report. He’s been splitting work with Dillon but has been more efficient with his opportunities. Just last week he hit the 100-yard-bonus in addition to 3 targets. The price difference makes Dillon equally viable, but Jones is the most likely to have a ceiling performance.

A.J. Dillon $6,800 – Captain or Flex

Dillon is listed as a Captain option based on his price paired with the ineptitude of the Lions’ rush defense. He’s been playing equal snaps to Jones, and nearly equals his opportunity. We’re getting the same workload as Dillon, but he’s not producing quite the same as Jones. Dillon is a great salary saver but he will need to score to finish as the top Captain.

RECEIVER

Christian Watson $9,000 – Flex

Watson’s scorching hot touchdown streak has come to a halt, likely due to the injury he’s been battling through. It’s difficult to say whether or not this will be the week that he’s back to full health, but we know that Rodgers is likely going to have to pass to keep up in this game. Watson is the most likely to benefit from a shoot-out.

Allen Lazard $7,400 – Flex

Lazard has been plenty involved most of the year but has yet to produce a meaningful fantasy outing. His roster percentage has continued to decrease, even as his price shrinks. At $1,600 less than Watson, Lazard is the preferred option to pair with Rodgers regardless of the game environment.

Romeo Doubs $5,200 – Flex

Doubs has been given plenty of opportunities over the last three weeks, but he’s failed to do much with them. He’s averaging five targets, which is plenty viable at $5,200.

Robert Tonyan Jr $5,000 – Flex

Tonyan leads his trio of tight ends in snaps, but he’s averaging just three targets per game. We can get similar production from Randall Cobb at a discount.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Randall Cobb $3,600 – Flex

Cobb has lost snaps to Doubs since he returned from injury, but he’s still receiving multiple targets a game and will carry a low roster percentage.

Marcedes Lewis $600 – Flex

Lewis is worth considering if Josiah Deguara is unable to play.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point.

Even as 4.5-point home favorites, I won’t be considering lineups with five Packers. I still feel the Packers' defense is viable, but we won’t need to worry about including them with our onslaughts. With totals this high, the kickers have higher-than-average ceilings and can often go overlooked.