Sunday Showdown Week 15

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The New York Giants are heading to Washington to take on the Commanders as 4.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 40.5. Both teams are in the bottom 10 in pass rate. Washington is riding an incredibly hot run-first approach, while New York is struggling to find any offensive success of late. These two teams are only two weeks removed from their last matchup which ended in a 20-20 tie. The Commanders produced on the ground, and through the air, while the Giants didn’t get either phase going. We’re expecting more of the same this week, with New York lacking the firepower to keep up with any average offense. As 4.5-point favorites, we’re going to be looking to heavily stack the Commanders. This will be a popular build, so we will need to be unique with our Giants selections to compensate. It feels as though Draftkings is begging us to stack the Commanders, so hitting on our Giants is going to be key.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Daniel Bellinger – Ribs – Questionable
• Richie James – Head - Questionable
• Cam Sims – Back – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Brian Robinson
2. Taylor Heinicke
3. Terry McLaurin
4. Saquon Barkley
5. Antonio Gibson

NEW YORK OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Daniel Jones $10,200 – Flex

Daniel Jones nearly made Captain consideration but fell just short due to the lack of passing weapons we’d like to stack him with. Despite the Giants’ recent struggles in the passing game, their receivers are still relatively expensive compared to their Commanders' counterparts. Jones is still viable in the Flex with one of his receivers, but likely not with Barkley.

RUNNING BACK

Saquon Barkley $12,200 – Captain or Flex

Saquon Barkley has been running ice cold since his week 10 eruption against the Houston Texans. His price is not reflective of his recent disappointment. He just barely makes Captain consideration purely based on his projected roster percentage. Since he’s egregiously priced, Barkley should be underutilized while still carrying one of the highest ceilings at running back across the league.

RECEIVER

Darius Slayton $7,400 – Flex

Darius Slayton has been operating as the defacto top receiver. He’s played at least 80% of the snaps in each of the last 5 games, which is going to make him one of the more popular pairing options with Jones. His target share has been inconsistent, and at his elevated price tag I prefer to embrace the volatility of some of the cheaper Giants receivers.

Daniel Bellinger $6,200 – Flex

Daniel Bellinger is averaging less than four targets per game for the year and has yet to produce more than 40 yards. His price is another confusing one. Considering that he’s also been limited at practice all week, he’s likely another Giant’s pass catcher worth avoiding.

Isaiah Hodgins $5,600 – Flex

Isaiah Hodgins has been playing nearly as many snaps as Slayton and has one more target over the last two weeks. He’s coming off a two-game touchdown streak, but his roster percentage is still likely to be low given his mid-range price. Hodgins saves salary, adds uniqueness, and has at least the same amount of upside as his running mates.

Richie James $5,200 – Flex

Richie James is likely to be the most popular Giants receiver, but he’s a great play for many of the same reasons as Hodgins. Last week he played 91% of the snaps and received 9 targets. All of New York’s receivers excel downfield so that we could get burned by any of them, but I’m comfortable omitting Slayton and Bellinger in favor of Hodgins and James.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Nick Vannett $200 – Flex

Nick Vannett has played nearly 50% of the snaps over his last three starts. Vannett is a viable punt either way, but if Bellinger is limited at all by his rib injury, Vannett could receive added work at minimum salary.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Taylor Heinicke $10,800 – Captain or Flex

Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders are in an incredibly unique scenario in which they get to play the same team two games in a row, thanks to their Week 14 bye. Last game Heinicke threw a season-high 41 times for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns, but this includes multiple overtime possessions. He likely gets back to an efficient 30 attempts, with a sizable chunk of them distributed between Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. The Commanders will be heavily stacked with at least one of their running backs, leaving the door open for Heinicke double stacks with his receivers.

RUNNING BACK

Brian Robinson $8,000 – Captain or Flex

Brian Robinson’s price is reflective of his snap share, but his workload has been one of the best in the league. He was already averaging 20 attempts per game over the last 4 weeks. Now he’s added at least two targets in each of the last two games. His price is far too low, and with most of the money on the Commanders, expect Robinson to be busy holding a lead.

Antonio Gibson $7,600 – Captain or Flex

We’ve had plenty of slates where we’re comfortable playing both backs in the same lineup, but this week I’m comfortable with either at Captain. Robinson has the much safer floor, but Antonio Gibson has done enough in the receiving game this year to warrant consideration at a lower roster percentage.

RECEIVER

Terry McLaurin $9,800 – Captain or Flex

Terry Mclaurin was targeted 12 times in the tie. He produced 105 yards and a touchdown. He’s been liable to ghost us in the box score, but that is likely to be baked into his roster percentage. With both backs being popular at significantly lower salaries, McLaurin is another high-ceiling option that could be underutilized.

Curtis Samuel $6,600 – Flex

Curtis Samuel is the Parris Campbell to Mclaurin’s Michael Pittman. He’s liable to see similar work to McLaurin at a much lower salary but bolsters a much lower ceiling. At cost, Samuel is a strong pairing option with Heinicke.

Jahan Dotson $5,400 – Flex

Jahan Dotson has had four games to get back to form after being sidelined for six weeks. He had a huge bump in production last week with nine targets. He also played 79% of the snaps. All the receivers in this price range are fantastic options with reasonable roster percentages, but Dotson is preferred for his pairing with Heinicke.

Logan Thomas $5,000 – Flex

With so many exciting options in this price range, Logan Thomas only makes the player pool as a contrarian stacking option.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

John Bates $1,200 – Flex

John Bates has played roughly 50% of the snaps over the last 4 weeks. He’s put up two donuts in that span, but he also had a four-target game with a touchdown. He’s likely to let us down, but seeing the field 50% of the time at this price is worth some darts.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

When considering building Commanders onslaughts, strongly consider including their defense. I typically avoid double-kicker builds, but especially so this week as it will be more popular in a low total game with few options in the $4,000 range. I prefer paying up for the receivers in the $5,000 range.