OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
A week after falling to the San Francisco 49ers by 6-points on Sunday Night Football, the Los Angeles Chargers will get another shot at Sunday night celebrity this week when the host Patrick Mahomes II and the 7-2 Kansas City Chiefs. Footballguys' Vegas Value Chart tells us that oddsmakers project this game as a high-scoring affair with the Chiefs coming on top by a ~ 28 to 23 point advantage. This game sets up as one of the more exciting Showdown contests of the season with a slew of players from which to choose, some of whom have not been DFS-viable in months: the Chargers look to welcome back Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, both of whom have been sidelined with injuries since Week #7, while the Chiefs are looking to names like Justin Watson and Skyy Moore due to recent injuries to Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The game theory discussion this week should be centered around whether or not you think the Chargers can pull off the upset at home--if you believe Justin Herbert can lead this offense to victory at home against a Chiefs squad missing key weapons on offense, there is an edge to be had by creating lineups skewing heavy on the Chargers' side. Add in the likely popularity of cheap options like Skyy Moore and Justin Watson and there is reason to believe that a Chargers-heavy roster could be the sharp build this Sunday night.
INJURY ROUND-UP
- Keenan Allen: Hamstring, Questionable --> Likely to play
- Mike Williams: Ankle, Questionable --> Likely to play
- Gerald Everett: Groin, Questionable --> Game-time decision
- Dustin Hopkins: Hamstring, Doubtful --> Cameron Dicker likely to play
- Mecole Hardman: Abdomen, Injured Reserve --> Justin Watson to start
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: Concussion, OUT --> Kadarius Toney to benefit
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Justin Herbert $10,400 – Captain or Flex
Nobody is happier entering Week #11 than Justin Herbert. Having thrown to the likes of DeAndre Carter and Josh Palmer for a considerable chunk of the season, Herbert will rejoice when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams return to the field on Sunday night. With Williams active, Herbert has thrown for 280+ yards in 5 of 7 games; the addition of Keenan Allen can only help Herbert's chances of hitting the 300-yard bonus. He becomes more attractive when one considers the fact that Austin Ekeler has 36 receptions over the past month, which means you can possibly lock up a big chunk of the Chargers offense with a Herbert-Ekeler stack. Find the salary and jam Justin Herbert into your lineup. As the home underdog with an NFL-caliber receiving corps, he should put up the numbers to justify his price tag.
RUNNING BACK
Austin Ekeler $11,000 – Captain or Flex
Prior to last Sunday night's game against the 49ers, Ekeler had 20+ touches in 5 consecutive games. He leads the position in targets (81, 9.0 per game) and receiving yardage (420 yards) while also demonstrating that he can score touchdowns in bunches--in a 5-game span leading up to last week's disappointing performance, Ekeler logged 10 touchdowns. Ekeler will definitely be an integral part of this offense and has the upside to bring home a victory. The return of Keenan Allen likely downgrades his role as a receiver but not so much that you should avoid him. If you play on both major sites (DraftKings and FanDuel), focus your action on DK because of their full-PPR scoring system.
Isaiah Spiller $2,800 – Flex
Isaiah Spiller has usurped the backup RB role from Sony Michel since the Chargers Week #8 bye. That said, he would have to do a lot with the limited action he sees to merit consideration. Look for salary savings elsewhere. The volume simply is not there for Spiller--he would need to score a fluke touchdown to justify his salary.
Sony Michel $1,800 – Flex
With two touches since the Chargers' Week #8 bye, Michel is an afterthought in this offense. Easy pass. Michel can (and should) be omitted from the player pool.
Receiver
Mike Williams $9,000 - Flex
Prior to injuring his ankle in Week #7, Mike Williams had logged a touchdown and/or 100 receiving yards in 5 out of 7 games. Without Keenan Allen to steal Justin Herbert's attention, Williams was easily Herbert's favorite receiver, logging nearly 500 yards in that span. The matchup against the Chiefs secondary is prime--Kansas City has allowed two-touchdown games to Christian Kirk, Davante Adams, and Mike Evans over the past five weeks, not to mention a 220+ yards and a pair of touchdowns to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in that same window. Williams merits strong consideration given the matchup and implied Vegas gamescript. If choosing between Williams and Keenan Allen, roll with Williams.
Keenan Allen $8,600 - Flex
Finally. After watching from the sidelines since Week #1, Keenan Allen looks to suit up for this AFC West primetime matchup. When healthy, Allen is a perfect player for DraftKings' full-PPR scoring system and, because of that, he likely will be 25+% rostered on Sunday night. We will be rooting for Allen's successful return but one should be cautious when considering him for Showdown purposes--after missing two months of action, we should expect the Chargers' staff to limit his snaps to ensure he is available down the stretch. The recommendation is to fade the field and limit exposure to Allen at his hefty salary. He will be on the field in high-leverage situations (i.e., red zone) but will need to be extremely efficient in those situations to pay off his price tag.
Josh Palmer $7,200 – Flex
With Keenan Allen returning, we should expect Josh Palmer to lose some playing time. He has been on the field for > 90% of snaps for most of the season, yet has managed only one 100-yard performance despite that opportunity. DraftKings juiced up his salary in the event that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were not active, so he is overpriced for his implied role. Tough to justify Palmer's salary given his likely decline in snaps. He is arguably the fifth receiving option behind Allen, Williams, Everett, and Ekeler but is priced in line with all of them. Pass.
DeAndre Carter $5,200 – Flex
After playing over 85% of his team's snaps across the past month, DeAndre Carter will lose significant playing time with the return of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Expect Carter to log 50% of the team's snaps, at best. Given that he was unable to post solid fantasy numbers with twice the opportunity that he will see in this contest, it's difficult to recommend him here. With the return of Allen and Williams, Carter's role in this offense is diminished. He would have to become extremely efficient with his opportunity to deliver on his salary. Fade with confidence.
Gerald Everett $4,800 – Flex
Affordably priced at $4.8K, Gerald Everett is an intriguing salary-saving option against the Chiefs who allowed him to post a 6/71/0 stat line back in their Week #2 matchup. Everett has not scored a touchdown since Week #4 despite accumulating a half-dozen redzone targets across that span. Also in his favor, the Chiefs allow the 10th most points to his position. Give serious consideration to Everett, who offers salary relief alongside scoring potential. Monitor his status closely on Sunday evening--Everett was downgraded to 'questionable' on Saturday after logging a full practice on Friday. This is typically a sign that a player will not be active on Sunday. If Everett is inactive, Tre McKitty is a must-play at only $2.2K.
UNDER THE RADAR
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.
Tre McKitty $2,200 – Flex
A third-round selection out of Georgia in last year's draft, Tre McKitty represents a risky lineup differentiator who needs a bit of luck to deliver on his modest salary unless Gerald Everett misses Sunday's game with his groin issue. McKitty represents a big body target for Herbert in the redzone and would get solid opportunity should Everett miss time. If Gerald Everett is inactive, Tre McKitty becomes a must-play option to pair with lineups featuring Justin Herbert.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes II $11,400 – Captain or Flex
No player will be on more rosters Sunday night than Patrick Mahomes II. And for good reason--Mahomes has thrown for 300+ yards in 4 consecutive games and threw for 7 touchdowns in the 2 games prior to that span. Going into detail about why you should roster Mahomes is unnecessary. The issue with Mahomes is trying to identify who will be on the receiving end of his throws on any given week; he threw four touchdowns last week to four different players. Mahomes is always in consideration. He will be Captain in ~ 20-25% of lineups which, combined with his slate-high salary, makes him an attractive fade candidate for the Captain spot; it's a risky proposition but one worth weighing because of game theory considerations.
RUNNING BACK
Isiah Pacheco $6,800 – Captain or Flex
We appear to have witnessed a changing of the guard in Kansas City last week. Clyde Edwards-Helaire received only 4 snaps while Isiah Pacheco was the beneficiary with 56% of the team's snaps. Pacheco carried the ball 16 times for 82 yards but did not find the endzone. Given the implied gamescript, Pacheco may be the best points-per-dollar, volume-based play on the slate. Priced too cheaply for his emerging role, Pacheco is the steal of the slate and looks to be going unnoticed as an option for the Captain slot. His modest salary enables rostering more expensive players in the flex position, should you take that risk.
RECEIVER
Travis Kelce, $10,600 – Flex
It is tough to recommend fading the best tight end in football, but there is reason to consider the notion of avoiding Travis Kelce on Sunday night. First, Kelce is the most expensive Chiefs' player outside of Patrick Mahomes II; by rostering him, you hamstring your options elsewhere. Next, the Chargers have allowed only one touchdown to opposing tight ends all season and held Kelce to a 5/51/0 stat line back in Week #2. Lastly, Kelce is projected to be on over half of lineups on Sunday night--if he posts a similar stat line to what he did against the Chargers earlier this season, lineups without Kelce will catapult to the top of the leaderboards. If you are entering a single bullet, the recommendation is to fade Kelce for other options; if you are multi-entering, feel free to strategically roster Kelce but do so at a rate lower than the field.
Kadarius Toney, $8,000 – Flex
With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman sidelined, it may be time for Andy Reid to give Kadarius Toney a full set of snaps. Toney is entering his third full week with the team and should be more comfortable with the playbook, which augments the likelihood that he will see increased action in this matchup. To date, Toney has flashed signed of extreme athleticism as a Chief and certainly brings upside to DFS lineups. With Mahomes under center and Andy Reid's creative genius, Toney brings two-touchdown upside to the table. Toney represents a strong volume-based option for a flex position in his third game with the Chiefs.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, $5,400 – Flex
MVS continues to get nearly 100% of the team's snaps on the perimeter but has not done much with them to date. He did, however, manage to score for the first time all season last weekend against Jacksonville. With injuries to other key receivers, Mahomes may be forced to funnel more volume to MVS in this contest. Valdes-Scantling has multi-touchdown upside given his role in this offense and merits consideration in all formats.
Justin Watson, $1,400 – Flex
A sneaky option, Justin Watson logged 73% of the team's snaps last week due to JuJu Smith-Schuster leaving the game early with a concussion. Watson only managed a single target in that action, which could limit excitement about rostering him this week. That said, he logged five targets the week prior, an indication that Patrick Mahomes II trusts Watson and will feed him, if open. Watson is a potential lineup differentiator whose salary allows for spending up elsewhere while still bringing an ability to post points.
Skyy Moore, $600 – Flex
The second round pick out of Western Michigan has been a relative disappointment this season. Skyy Moore has had plenty of opportunity to log playing time with injuries to key players ahead of him and he continues to max out at ~ 25% of the team's snaps. That said, Moore is basically 'free' and needs only a single catch to deliver value on his salary. Thus, he's a player who deserves consideration. Roster Moore in lineups that have Mahomes in the Captain slot; the salary savings are needed and they (obviously) correlate well.
UNDER THE RADAR
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.
Noah Gray, $3,000 – Flex
Noah Gray is coming off a week that saw him find paydirt and collect 10 fantasy points (DK scoring) along the way. Thus, his salary is a bit inflated to boot. He is an absolute wild-card who can score on any given week but it is difficult to recommend him here because of the Chargers' strong tight end coverage and his elevated salary. Gray is a fade candidate. There are better options (Justin Watson and Skyy Moore) who are cheaper and will log more playing time.
Kicker and DST
Short of a defensive touchdown, it is difficult to recommend either defense in what should be a high-scoring affair. Roster defenses at your own peril.
Kickers, however, are certainly viable options in this contest. Oddsmakers fully expect this to be a fast-paced game with both offenses moving the ball efficiently. If either offense sputters in the redzone, a kicker could be the beneficiary. Cameron Dicker ("Dicker the Kicker") is a $4.0K option for the Chargers while the Chiefs will run out Harrison Butker ($4.2K) to kick field goals. Both will be fairly popular for the reasons depicted above and because DFS players will need the salary relief after rostering Patrick Mahomes II and Justin Herbert.