Saturday Showdown Week 18

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Tennessee Titans are heading to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars as 6-point underdogs. The game total is set at 40. The Jaguars have everything in their favor in this game. It is going to be difficult to hit on multiple Titans, but that will be the difference on this slate. Joshua Dobbs played admirably with all things considered, but I’m not confident he is going to perform as well as his roster percentage will suggest. Derrick Henry’s track record against Jacksonville is difficult to ignore. Coming off a week of rest, I will be playing Henry regardless of his roster percentage and pairing him with a unique Titans receiver.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Treylon Burks – Groin – Limited
• Trevor Lawrence – Toe – Limited

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Trevor Lawrence
2. Zay Jones
3. Derrick Henry
4. Travis Etienne
5. Christian Kirk

TENNESSEE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Joshua Dobbs $9,000 – Flex

Dobbs played well enough in his first NFL start to secure another opportunity in what essentially amounts to a playoff game. He attempted 39 passes and completed just under half of them. His efficiency was disappointing, but his willingness to attempt deep passes was enticing. I’m not as much interested in investing in Dobbs as I am in his receivers for their deep-shot equity.

RUNNING BACK

Derrick Henry $11,800 – Captain or Flex

Henry missed last week due to injury but would’ve likely suited up if the game carried a shred of importance. He is essentially locked into at least 100 yards each time he plays against the Jaguars. The only way to get any leverage with Henry is to play him at Captain. Otherwise, we’re stuck treating this like a 5-man slate or fading a near lock for the 100-yard-bonus.

RECEIVER

Treylon Burks $6,400 – Flex

Burks was second on the team with eight targets in Dobbs’ first start. He also attempted a rush for the second consecutive week. He currently carries a questionable tag but is expected to play. Burks likely ends up being the most rostered Titans receiver, but he’s still a strong option even without Dobbs.

Robert Woods $5,800 – Flex

Woods led the team with nine targets and secured Dobbs’ only touchdown pass. He doesn’t have the same big-play upside as Burks, but he’s cheaper with similar volume and likely a lower roster percentage.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $5,000 – Flex

Westbrook-Ikhine’s salary is about $2,000 too high. He hasn’t been targeted more than three times since Week 14. He doesn’t offer enough of a discount compared to Burks or Woods to justify playing.

Chigoziem Okonkwo $4,800 – Flex

Okonkwo caught Dobbs’ first couple of targets but was mostly quiet for the remainder of the game. He played just 25% of the snaps. He’s far more enticing in this range, given his after-the-catch ability, than Ikhine-Westbrook, who would need to connect on a deep ball.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Austin Hooper $3,000 – Flex

Hooper was targeted 6 times and played 49% of the snaps. He’s far less exciting to roster than Okonkwo, but he’s $1,800 less and saw the third most targets last week.

Hassan Haskins $2,400 – Flex

Haskins started for Henry last week and was given 15 opportunities on 66% of the snaps. He will play roughly 25% of the snaps this week and should be strongly considered in lineups that fade Henry.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Trevor Lawrence $10,800 – Flex

Lawrence’s Week 17 outing was incredibly disappointing for anyone who rostered him throughout the year, but he didn’t need to do much to beat the Texans by 28 points. Before that game, he had attempted 30 or more passes in 9 straight games. He has hit the 300-yard-bonus four times this season and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven games. Besides Henry, Lawrence is the strongest Captain option for lineups predicated around this game remaining close.

RUNNING BACK

Travis Etienne $10,600 – Captain or Flex

Etienne is a six-point home favorite who averaged nearly 18 carries between Weeks 13 and 16. Henry is going to get all the attention, but Etienne is set up for a huge game. In lineups excluding Henry, Etienne is the most viable Captain.

RECEIVER

Christian Kirk $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Kirk is consistently overpriced on Showdown slates, especially relative to Zay Jones. He makes Captain consideration based on the theory that his high salary keeps his roster percentage low. He’s got a high enough ceiling to compete with anyone on this slate for top scorer, but he won’t show up in many optimizers.

Zay Jones $7,600 – Captain or Flex

Jones is far too cheap, and there’s no explanation for it. He’s been equally as productive as Kirk most of the season but is priced like a secondary option. The last couple of weeks have been down for most of the offense, but Jones still has nine targets over that time. He’s going to be chalky, but he’s an excellent salary saver.

Evan Engram $7,000 – Flex

Engram’s price may save us from Jones’ roster percentage getting out of hand. They’re both priced in the same range, and they both average similar target shares. They also share a similar ceiling. Engram has hit 100 yards in two of the last four games, but he also has less than 20 yards in six contests this season. He’s an excellent stacking option with Lawrence, but Jones s preferred if choosing just one in this range.

Marvin Jones $5,400 – Flex

Marvin Jones was the only Jaguars receiver to have a productive game last week. He was targeted seven times for six receptions and 61 yards. He is the most likely receiver to bust, but his roster percentage is consistently in the 20% range, which will help keep our Jaguar stacks unique.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

JaMycal Hasty $3,800 – Flex

Hasty is expected to play around 30% of the snaps, but the team trusts him in all the same roles as Etienne. He has an outside shot at a touchdown.

Jamal Agnew $1,200 – Flex

Agnew is likely to carry the highest roster percentage of all sub-$3,000 players, but he’s far too cheap, given his involvement.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:

The Jaguars’ defense is going to be popular given that they’re not only six-point home favorites, but they’re playing against Dobbs in his second start. Still, it’s worth strongly considering Jacksonville’s defense in onslaughts. Randy Bullock is likely to be overlooked just as he was in Dobb’s first start but he’s much more viable with Henry back.