Reading the Defense, Week 10

Under previous stewardship, Reading the Defense routinely updated its readers on the playing time of off-ball linebackers across the league. The three-down linebacker is, after all, the foundational piece of an IDP roster. Fantasy gamers likewise build their offenses around workhorse running backs.

Footballguy Jene Bramel wrote Reading the Defense throughout much of this century’s second decade. During that time, 11-personnel became the majority offensive set (2013), and nickel became the majority defensive personnel grouping (2015).

The use of dime personnel (six defensive backs rather than nickel's five) grew throughout the past decade. Deployment of the sixth defensive back usually comes at the expense of one of two regular linebackers. The narrative surrounding the increased use of defensive backs has been that defenses need the speed and coverage ability and, further, that soft run defense is of little to no consequence.

The trend toward dime defenses appeared to portend a shortage of full-time linebackers for fantasy football. Typical IDP leagues require three linebackers per team in weekly line-ups. In a twelve-team league, 36 linebackers would be active. If every NFL team fielded just one full-time linebacker, only 32 would be available to the typical league. Given the relatively linear relationship between snaps and tackles, fantasy teams would hotly contest full-time players in drafts and on waiver wires.

The changes in offensive personnel deployment leveled off in the past five seasons. Dime sub-packages, meanwhile, peaked in usage in 2019 and subsequently decreased, according to annual reporting by FootballOutsiders.com.

The league-wide defensive trend attracting attention has been using two deep safeties. Defenses with just one deep safety prevailed through the past decade, while offenses were increasing their deployment of 11-personnel.

NFL defensive coordinators have responded to 11-personnel first by increasing defensive back usage from four to five per set (nickel sub-packages) and second by deploying both safeties in the third level of the defense. In contrast, the strong safety and the slot defender typically play at the defense’s second level in single-high safety schemes. The real innovation in this evolution toward two-high shells is that defensive coordinators have abandoned the notion that they need seven defenders near the line of scrimmage.

Former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is often credited with building out coverages first and allocating remaining resources to pass rush and run defense. Coordinators across the league are following the Fangio blueprint of slowing down opposing run games with six defenders in the box. A six-man box obviates the utility of nickel, rather than dime, sub-packages.

Talent. Situation. Opportunity.

Footballguy Sigmund Bloom often analogizes fantasy value to the seat on a three-legged stool wherein the legs of the stool are talent, situation, and opportunity. A hot topic of debate last summer was the opportunity available to linebackers on several NFL teams, including the Vikings, Chiefs, Packers, and Saints.

This season’s first edition of Reading the Defense reflected on linebacker deployment in each of these defenses. Jordan Hicks, Nick Bolton, Quay Walker, and Pete Werner are all capitalizing on opportunities that fantasy gamers feared were unavailable. Each linebacker is playing full-time or close to it.

Seattle’s Cody Barton and Washington’s Jamin Davis, meanwhile, were seen as solid draft picks in August largely because their teams had used two full-time linebackers each in 2021. Each has experienced a diminution in role since Week 1 of 2022. Both have struggled.

Barton is allowing an opposing quarterback rating of 114.7 and is often replaced by an extra defensive back for dime sub-packages, while nickel back Coby Bryant plays nearly full-time. Barton’s reduction in role has coincided with the Seattle defense’s increase in efficacy.

The Commanders, too, are showing more dime with a nickel back and a slot cornerback each playing more than 50% of defensive snaps. Jamin Davis might yet rebound. In a season in which Commanders head coach Ron Rivera has been cringingly candid about his players, a compliment to Davis is welcome news.

The lesson to glean is that talent matters. Barton is a good run defender but a liability in coverage. In anachronistic terms, he’s a “two-down linebacker.” This adage has held for decades. Among Hicks, Bolton, Walker, and Werner, only the Saint is allowing an opposing quarterback rating of 90 or higher. They have played their way into significant roles while Barton has cost himself snaps.

Roquan Smith Trade Fallout

IDP fantasy football saw its top overall scorer dealt just ahead of the trade deadline. Last week’s edition of Reading the Defense covered the impact of a change in scenery on Roquan Smith. His first snaps in Baltimore were on national display Monday night. Smith played 39 of 51 Baltimore defensive snaps (76%) and looked like a difference-maker on the field.

More quietly, Smith’s new running mate Patrick Queen played 49 snaps, and rookie nickelback Kyle Hamilton played 38. Queen is enjoying his best season and allowing a career-best 89.0 quarterback rating against. This column covered Kyle Hamilton’s growth two weeks ago.

Prevailing thoughts about the impact of Smith on the Ravens were that Queen’s playing time would suffer greatly. Like most NFL teams, the 2022 Ravens are playing more frequently with two high safeties. Third-year linebacker Malik Harrison was on pace for a career-high workload, while incumbent middle linebacker Josh Bynes’s snap counts remained steady year over year before Smith’s arrival. These linebacker snaps are in addition to Queen’s full-time role.

Queen and Smith should have little difficulty maintaining large workloads in front of the two deep safeties. Through their play, they must dissuade first-year defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald from rotating in extra defensive backs Brandon Stephens and Damarion Williams, two recent mid-round draft picks.

The video above highlights Smith’s strong performance against the Saints. It also shows Queen playing alongside him and some of the schematic elements that keep both on the field, including two-deep coverages and light boxes.

Concerns for Queen appear based on previous years’ defenses under a coordinator the team let go. Optimism for a Chicago linebacker was similarly based on an expectation that a player would simply plug into Smith’s vacated full-time workload.

The prevailing assumption held up fairly well through one week. Undrafted free-agent rookie Jack Sanborn played 50 of Chicago’s 57 defensive snaps in Week 9. Sanborn didn’t make highlight-reel plays, but he wasn’t exposed either. While seven snaps missed is a small number, the duo of Roquan Smith and Nicholas Morrow missed just one snap through eight weeks prior.

Like Baltimore, Chicago shows a roughly even split in one-high and two-high safety sets. The Bears certainly have dime personnel sub-packages they could deploy more often. The outstanding question, then, is whether the quality of linebacker play will force them to rotate defensive backs through more frequently than they have to date.

Fantasy Implications

The situation in Baltimore is that its defense is getting healthier. The addition of Smith makes it better. Chicago’s defense was one of the league’s worst before Smith left.

A fantasy gamer’s investment in Patrick Queen is a bet on big plays in an effective unit. Queen already has 8 quarterback hits, 5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 3 passes defensed, and 2 turnovers forced in 555 snaps this season.

Jack Sanborn has no such stats in 64 defensive snaps. The fantasy gamer investing in Sanborn is betting on an undrafted free-agent rookie to hold a role and keep making tackles.

Analysis in Reading the Defense will equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Readers are welcome to contact and follow this writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter.