Reading the Defense, Week 2

Reading the Defense is a famous column title in IDP fantasy football. Long-time Footballguys writer Jene Bramel reported player utilization and communicated how it impacted players’ performance for fantasy football. Bramel further addressed what league-wide trends portended for the unfolding season and beyond.

Your writer, new to staff at Footballguys, is honored and humbled by the opportunity to carry the mantle of Reading the Defense. The 2022 season is my fourth writing about individual defensive players in fantasy football. I’ve been playing versions of fantasy football since the late 1980s. I grew up primarily playing defense and have always valued that aspect of all team sports more than most as a fan. My fantasy football content before arriving at Footballguys has focused foremost on defensive scheme changes and the impacts on player productivity I expect as a result.

In years past, the most notable impact of a scheme change was to alter the position designation of pass rushers on the edges of the defense. Defensive ends became outside linebackers and vice versa.

In 2022, every team runs hybrid or at least multiple fronts that render the distinction between defensive end and outside linebacker insignificant. Differences in defensive aggressiveness and similarities within position groups have more subtle but still significant impacts on tackle accumulation and the likelihood of big plays.

The Decline of the Off-Ball Linebacker

Jenel Bramel often visited the topic of defensive sub-packages and reduced roles of linebackers across the NFL. The website FootballOutsiders.com publishes an annual review of defensive personnel package deployment. Its findings for 2021 indicate that fully three-quarters of defensive snaps omitted a third off-ball linebacker once considered standard (base 4-3 defense). However, the trend toward additional defensive backs abated somewhat from 2020 to 2021.

Fantasy writers and fans alike debated on social media whether several young linebackers would ascend to full-time roles in 2022. Also in this context, a quarter of the NFL’s defensive-coordinator positions turned over, per usual, leading to questions about increased or decreased linebacker deployment.

Proponents of these youngsters are emboldened if not celebrating after Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season.

Nick Bolton, Kansas City

No linebacker played full-time for Kansas City in 2020 or 2021 in part because the Chiefs have been among league leaders in three-safety sets. Additionally, a coverage specialist typically played middle linebacker in dime sub-packages.

A popular platitude in fantasy football is that certain coaches like to rotate players. This lazy analysis neglecting the rationale behind a rotation precludes fantasy gamers from capitalizing on emerging young talent. The Chiefs’ 2021 second-round pick from the University of Missouri, Nick Bolton flashed as a rookie, making incumbent veteran middle linebackers Anthony Hitchens and Ben Niemann expendable. Bolton earned the responsibility of calling plays during the summer. After the preseason, the team cut Jermaine Carter, who looked like a candidate to succeed Niemann and replace Bolton in certain dime sub-packages.

Nick Bolton collected 10 tackles (including one for loss) in 50 of an available 50 snaps playing full-time with Kansas City’s first-string defense. The Chiefs routed the Cardinals, enabling them to pull Bolton and other starters like safeties Justin Reid and Juan Thornhill late in the game. Pro Football Focus gave Bolton a grade of 87.4, the second highest among NFL linebackers in Week 1.

Jamin Davis, Washington

The Commanders’ first-round pick of 2021, Jamin Davis was expected to start at middle linebacker right away. He struggled to learn the defense, however, and was limited to a part-time role.

The team opened up the weakside linebacker spot for him this summer by moving the incumbent Cole Holcomb to the middle. Per beat writers’ accounts, Davis’s accession to the full-time role wasn’t a straight line; however, the veteran linebackers on the roster, David Mayo and Jon Bostic, didn’t see the field in Week 1.

Jamin Davis tackled just three Jaguars in Week 1 but played 65 of the Commanders’ 70 defensive snaps. Unlike his peer in Kansas City, the sophomore Davis may not have completely put the veterans away. Still, the early playing time is a pleasant surprise.

Pete Werner, New Orleans

The Saints’ second-round pick of 2021 might be the most challenging assessment among linebackers on the Week 1 leaderboard. Werner forced a fumble and collected 13 tackles, tied for fifth in the league, in 61 snaps. He played 81% of the Saints’ 75 defensive snaps versus in Atlanta versus the run-heavy Falcons (fifth-highest rate of run plays, 53.5% in Week 1).

Like Bolton, Werner made a positive impression in limited snaps as a rookie. His emergence made Kwon Alexander expendable. Meanwhile, camp revelation Justin Evans made nickel C.J. Gardner-Johnson expendable. In 2021, Alexander played 71% of the Saints’ defensive snaps while Gardner-Johnson played 82%. In Week 1 of the 2022 season, Werner out-snapped Evans 61 (81%) to (51%).

The reversal in deployment between the Saints’ second linebacker and nickel defender must hold for Pete Werner to become a reliable fantasy asset. Whether the New Orleans linebacker can earn a larger role against more dynamic passing teams remains to be seen. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will help shape our assumptions of the Saints’ defense for the 2022 season in Week 2.

Zaven Collins, Arizona

The Cardinals’ first-round pick of the 2021 NFL draft was fully expected to play full-time in the middle of Arizona’s defense as a rookie. Instead, he barely played. Incumbent Jordan Hicks held the role even after publicly acknowledging seeking a team as a trading partner for his services.

Hicks finally departed via free agency to Minnesota last spring. Then, a drumbeat arose for journeyman linebacker Nick Vigil in the summer. Coaches lauded Vigil’s command of the defense.

Collins did not experience déjà vu in Week 1 of 2022. He played 67 of his defense’s 70 snaps (96%). He collected seven tackles, including two for loss. He also missed three tackles, so his efficiency as a tackler has room to improve.

Zaven Collins might also add fantasy value with QB sacks. He lined up on the edge of the defense 12 times and rushed the passer 13 times total. Unfortunately, he didn’t have the same success Sunday as the only linebacker drafted ahead of him, Micah Parsons.

Quay Walker, Green Bay

The Packers spent the first of two Day-1 draft picks on off-ball linebacker Quay Walker last spring. The general manager and the coaches told us they wanted to rotate defenders less frequently and lean on a second versatile linebacker alongside 2021 Pro-Bowler De’Vondre Campbell. The team had already allowed 2021 nickel Chandon Sullivan to depart in free agency for divisional rival Minnesota.

Quay Walker played 86% of his team’s defensive snaps before departing with an injury midway through the second half of his Week-1 game. He collected 8 tackles in 38 snaps. No safety came off the bench for Green Bay at any point in the game to relieve him.

A Stay of Execution

The Chargers and Patriots are leading the way in relegating the linebacker to a part-time position like the nose tackle. They’ve been leading a trend that’s slowed recently. Additional linebackers with encouraging snap shares playing alongside a full-time running mate include the following. Expectations for each were uncertain in August.

Fantasy gamers can breathe a sigh of relief in 2022 because an exciting crop of young players is blossoming in the middle of several defenses. Linebackers in this piece playing eighty-some percent of snaps shape up as risky LB3s going forward, but they proved more useful than previously believed by consensus. The players who achieved a full workload – including Nick Bolton – are embarking on top-24 seasons at the position with good health.

An Invitation

Footballguys provides an unmatched breadth of resources: depth charts, rankings, and projections that give fantasy gamers the names they need. Reading the Defense explores how evolving defensive schemes and changing player roles inform recommendations and projections.

Analysis in this column will equip fantasy gamers with the confidence to acquire players for their rosters and deploy them on Sundays. Learn why your August targets are underperforming. Spot potential producers among the dozens of candidates at all three levels of teams across the NFL. Contact your writer @DynastyTripp on Twitter to suggest topics that interest you.

Thanks for reading!