The New Reality No.186: Regression, Timing the Market

Photo: USA Today Sports

With six weeks of data for players, profiles, offenses, and matchups, the next month is critical for positioning a dynasty roster for the stretch run. Here is a look at each position's regression candidates and key schedule shifts upcoming:

QUARTERBACKS

• QB Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

The key stats with Wilson are his 4.3% TD rate, less than half of his career 9.3% mark (based on touchdowns per completion). Wilson's INT rate is actually better than his already strong career rate in 2022. Denver (and Wilson) is one of the NFL offenses to bet on improving either later in 2022 or, at the latest, in 2023. Wilson's 1.80 TD-INT Rate Ratio for his career is only behind Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Tom Brady among current NFL starters. Fade the short-term oscillation and buy the long-term profile as one of the best NFL quarterbacks over the past decade.

• QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Unlike Russell Wilson, Murray's slow start to 2022 does not have the support of a long-term elite NFL profile. Murray's 0.80 TD-INT Rate Ratio in 2022 is far below the NFL average of 1.15 for starting options and falling below 1.00 for a career of decent sample size points to a job security risk. Murray has sagged to 1.00 exactly, with his down 2022 factored into the equation. Murray has less job security risk considering his new contract from the offseason but is still on a warmer seat than he should possess considering his assumed solid job stature. Murray, considering his core asset dynasty title, is one of the riskier quarterbacks in all of dynasty.

• QB Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints

Winston should be returning from injury soon but is on the hot seat to turn around a horrific 2022 start. Winston rewrote his career with an electric 3.24 TD-INT Rate Ratio in 2021. The concern was the outlier nature of last season and being on just 161 passes as a sample size. 2022 is off to a 'lose your job quickly' start with a 0.46 TD-INT Ratio Ratio, where anything below 0.80 typically loses their job by the following offseason at the absolute latest outside of being a quality veteran profile, which does not qualify here. Winston is at risk of devolving back to reserve status without a reversal in his next few starts, as his poor 2022 is paired with a career 0.91 TD-INT Rate Ratio.

• QB Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Be open to the possibilities with Geno Smith. His 2022 has a TD-INT Rate Ratio of 1.63, firmly higher than his 0.58 career mark. He has resided in the same system for a few years to reset the clock and is surrounded by quality weapons in Seattle to sustain production. Smith had only one qualifying season with a decent sample size before 2022 (2013) to make his profile of minimal usage until his 30s a unique career arc. Smith's market valuation in the mid-20s of the dynasty quarterback position is intriguing, considering the price point of a future second and in the zone of Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, and even Carson Wentz in premium formats.

RUNNING BACKS

• RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
• RB Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
• RB Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

This quartet marks the ideal touchdown regression group for the position. Mixon has scored a paltry one rushing touchdown despite being tied for third in the NFL in carries (104) and Cincinnati being fourth in goal-line carries for the running back position. Mixon is the clear starter on a quality offense, and they are seeing plenty of red zone and goal-line opportunities for Mixon to bounce back in the coming weeks.

The Steelers are 17th in goal-line carries for the running back position, but Harris has prototypical size and is the clear starter. Harris has one rushing score on 83 carries. Harris has a career TD rate of 2.1% and sits at 1.2% this season.