Linebacker Tiers

Links to similar discussions on other positions:

Why Tiers?

Most fantasy owners are used to drafting off a simple ranking of players, but that can mask underlying differences between players. For example, two players may be ranked right next to each other on a cheatsheet, but there could be a wide gap in their expected production. In that case, you would probably want to draft the higher-ranked player a full round earlier than the lower-ranked player. Similarly, there may be a large group of players with very similar projections that are bunched together on a ranking sheet. It may seem that a player ranked 10^th is much more valuable than a player ranked 15^th, but if only a few projected points separate them then they are roughly equivalent in value. Rather than force yourself to pick one, it may be best to focus on another position and then come back to this position in the next round since you’re likely to get a player of nearly identical value.

Grouping players into distinct tiers or buckets provides additional context that allows a drafter to make more informed decisions. The projections we offer at Footballguys also help a lot in this regard, but those are still static projections that may not fully indicate the range of likely outcomes for a player. For example, two players may be projected with similar numbers, but one may have significantly more upside and/or a higher floor than the other. Those types of risk vs. reward decisions are inherent in any fantasy draft. While drafting the safe players will typically help you build a solid team, you often need to take some chances and hit on some players who significantly exceed their preseason expectations to win.

Rankings are typically helpful in ordering players within the same position group, but tiers can help you figure out which position to take as you move through a draft. If you see a large group of linebackers capable of putting up top-12 numbers but only one defensive lineman likely to put up elite numbers, it’s wise to grab the lineman and assume a quality linebacker will last until your next pick. This helps maximize your pick's value and is a strategy that all strong fantasy players use to some extent.

How to Use the Tiers

1. These tiers are based on expected performance for the 2022 season in a balanced scoring system. While dynasty owners always need to consider long-term outcomes to some extent, the upcoming season is most critical for player value. I’ll highlight some dynasty stash options in a separate tier that you can focus on if you are less concerned about this year and want to focus on building for the future.
2. Positional classifications can differ depending on what your league-hosting website uses. For consistency, I will rely on the official Footballguys player classifications. For the most part, these should match up well with the major sources that exist online but there could be differences. Assigning edge rushers to linebacker or defensive end (or edge rusher) is the main area that causes issues here, as the classification can have a huge impact on fantasy value.
3. Added an asterisk (*) for any players with added value in big-play scoring systems. There is a lot of scoring variability that exists among IDP leagues, so if your league places added value on big plays (i.e., sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc.), this information should help you identify some key targets in each tier.

LINEBACKERS TIER 1: ELITE LB1

• Darius Leonard, IND *
• Roquan Smith, CHI *
• Bobby Wagner, LAR
• Devin White, TB *
• Jordyn Brooks, SEA
• Micah Parsons, DAL *
• C.J. Mosley, NYJ

These are core pieces for any fantasy roster with IDPs and the type of players you can build a championship team. They will all play just about every snap for their respective teams and have a history of production in the league, including high tackle output combined with big-play potential. Many do have some type of flaw or concern, which is unusual this year and means there is no clear top option. While Darius Leonard has been extremely productive throughout most of his career, he’s currently working his way back from back surgery. Roquan Smith is an exceptional talent on a bad team but is also a camp holdout who recently requested a trade. Bobby Wagner has been unstoppable in Seattle, but how will he adapt to a new team this year? Jordyn Brooks is coming off a season with 94 solos and 70 assists, but can he repeat without Wagner? Micah Parsons posted 13 sacks as a rookie but figures to spend more time as an off-ball linebacker this year.

LINEBACKERS TIER 2: LOW-END LB1/HIGH-END LB2

• DeVondre Campbell, GB
• Blake Martinez, NYG
• Foye Oluokun, JAX
• T.J. Watt, PIT *
• Fred Warner, SF
• Cole Holcomb, WAS
• Eric Kendricks, MIN
• Logan Wilson, CIN
• Lavonte David, TB *

This group includes several players with elite potential who figure to play a huge role for their teams, but they all carry slightly more risk that warrants a slight drop in value. Each linebacker on this list has a realistic chance to finish in the top 15 among fantasy linebackers this year, provided they can stay healthy. Some figure to play a lot of snaps on bad teams (i.e., Blake Martinez, Foye Oluokun, Cole Holcomb), which will inevitably boost their tackle numbers. In contrast, others are quite talented but may not get enough opportunities on a strong team to fully realize their fantasy potential (i.e., Fred Warner, Logan Wilson, Lavonte David).

LINEBACKERS TIER 3: SOLID LB2

• Bobby Okereke, IND
• Isaiah Simmons, ARI *
• Denzel Perryman, LV
• Nick Bolton, KC
• David Long Jr TEN
• Jerome Baker, MIA *
• Myles Jack, PIT
• Deion Jones, ATL *
• Tremaine Edmunds, BUF
• Demario Davis, NO

This group includes some very good linebackers with a range of experience levels who will likely post some high-scoring weeks but lack the consistency of the players ranked above them. These players provide a solid baseline at the position and can be counted on as reliable starters without focusing too much on the matchups each week. One or two may break out as Denzel Perryman did a year ago but it’s safe to consider these stable high-floor options with limited upside. Deion Jones has a wider range of outcomes than most since he could post elite numbers on a bad team but is also dealing with an injury and may be moved out as the team starts to rebuild. The best targets here are likely the younger players who still have room to grow such as Isaiah Simmons, Nick Bolton, and even Myles Jack as we get a chance to see what he can do outside of Jacksonville.

LINEBACKERS TIER 4: LB3

• Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CLE
• Kyzir White, PHI
• Devin Lloyd, JAX
• Patrick Queen, BAL
• Shaq Thompson, CAR
• Jordan Hicks, MIN
• Zaven Collins, ARI *
• Anthony Walker, CLE
• Kamu Grugier-Hill, HOU
• Matt Milano, BUF *
• Quincy Williams, NYJ

This group of players carries a bit more risk and consists of players whose production from week to week will often be heavily influenced by their matchup or the game script. As a result, you may not be able to simply plug them into your starting lineup each week and feel confident that they will produce. You’ll notice several young or unproven players in this group who could need a bit more time to develop into quality 3-down players, such as Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Devin Lloyd, and Zaven Collins. There are also some veterans who changed teams this offseason and may need some time to adjust to their new environments, such as Kyzir White and Jordan Hicks. What seems most common among this group is that many are considered the second-best linebacker on their team and that will likely limit their upside as there figure to be fewer tackle opportunities available.

LINEBACKERS TIER 5: TOP BACKUPS WITH UPSIDE

• Zach Cunningham, TEN
• Christian Kirksey, HOU
• Jamin Davis, WAS
• Quay Walker, GB
• Nicholas Morrow, CHI
• Drue Tranquill, LAC
• Pete Werner, NO
• Devin Bush, PIT *
• Dre Greenlaw, SF *
• Jayon Brown, LV

This group highlights some of the top players left who you may want to target for bench spots on your team since they have some clear potential to outperform expectations. Nicholas Morrow becomes an intriguing option given the camp holdout and trade request from Roquan Smith. Quay Walker could become the future focal point of the Packers defense if he can surpass DeVondre Campbell, while Zack Cunningham will try to bounce back in Tennessee after a disastrous season in Houston.

LINEBACKERS TIER 6A: TOP TACKLE-HEAVY BACKUPS

• JaWhaun Bentley, NE
• Cody Barton, SEA
• Willie Gay Jr Jr, KC
• Leighton Vander Esch, DAL
• Tae Crowder, NYG
• Josey Jewell, DEN
• Cory Littleton, CAR
• Germaine Pratt, CIN
• T.J. Edwards, PHI
• Mykal Walker, ATL

These are the types of linebackers who may not offer much in the way of upside but they should get enough of a workload to make them viable options when your depth is tested by injuries or bye weeks. Most have a good chance to reach 100 combined tackles but are unlikely to contribute much in the big play categories. A breakout from this group to the top-15 is unlikely but the top-36 is probably within reach.

LINEBACKERS TIER 6B: TOP SACK-HEAVY BACKUPS

• Haason Reddick, PHI *
• Josh Allen, JAX *
• Shaquil Barrett, TB *
• Khalil Mack, LAC *
• Harold Landry, TEN *
• Von Miller, BUF *
• Matt Judon, NE *
• ZaDarius Smith, GB *
• Rashan Gary, GB *
• Leonard Floyd, LAR *

These players are primarily edge-rushers and 3-4 outside linebackers who derive most of their value from rushing the quarterback in passing situations so they will have added value in big-play scoring systems. Most will top out around 40 solo tackles but should supplement that production with 7+ sacks. This is also the group of players whose fantasy value will change most dramatically based on the type of league you are in. In some cases, they will be grouped as defensive ends or edge rushers and will likely be valued as an every-week starter. In other cases, however, they will be classified with a large group of linebackers and have more difficulty standing out unless sacks carry a higher bonus compared to tackles. Some may even be classified as DE or headed that way soon, depending on your league's hosting site.

LINEBACKERS TIER 7: DYNASTY STASHES

• Nakobe Dean, PHI
• Travon Walker, JAX *
• Kayvon Thibodeaux, NYG *
• Troy Andersen, ATL
• Malcolm Rodriguez, DET
• Channing Tindall, MIA
• Christian Harris, HOU
• Chad Muma, JAX
• Terrel Bernard, BUF
• Leo Chenal, KC
• Arnold Ebiketie, ATL *

Many of the high-end rookies from the past several drafts are projected to play 3-down roles and are placed into the higher tiers above. This group includes rookies who may not start immediately but could develop into full-time contributors and fantasy starters before too long. For players like Nakobe Dean and Malcolm Rodriguez and several others, there is a path to a starting role and reasonable fantasy value as early as this season but most will likely need more time to reach their potential.