Film Talk, Week 4

I decided to watch the Green Bay at Tampa Bay and the Atlanta at Seattle games because I wanted to see some of the young skill position players. However, the difference in quarterback play between the tier of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers versus Geno Smith and Marcus Mariota was vast. Being a Quarterback is the most difficult job in the NFL. I decided to peel back the layers of it to start this week’s film talk.

In 2008, I was an eager young coach and blessed to have an internship at Montana State University for Spring football. I learned from every coach on their staff, but I devoted most of my time to being with Jim Svoboda because he coached quarterbacks. He’s currently the offensive coordinator at Tulane, former Head Coach at Central Missouri, former offensive coordinator at UCLA, and has won several national championships. I was a sponge with coach Svoboda and still own three legal pads full of his answers to all of my questions. One answer is etched into my mind more than others. I asked him, “What separates good from great quarterbacks?” Without hesitation, coach Svoboda replied, “The ability to process information quickly.”

Quarterbacks have to remember the play, call out the play to their teammates, know their job, know the job of the other 10 offensive players, line them up correctly, remember the down and distance and situation, remember the snap count, get a pre-snap read of the defense, call out alerts, adjust the protection, audible the play, change routes based on defensive alignment or leverage, shift or trade or motion offensive players, remember their technique to execute the play and then get the play snapped before the play clock expires. After the ball is snapped, the other 21 players all move, and it may not be in ways that were hypothesized before the snap. It is constantly processing information, making decisions, and then executing in short periods of time. The great ones are making correct split-second decisions, while others struggle with their internal processor.

What I constantly saw from Brady and Rodgers is they’re just many levels ahead of Smith and Mariota. If the play design had the initial read open, then all four players could execute. Brady and Rodgers had better timing and accuracy. However, a gap existed when it came to making multiple reads or playing off script. Smith could do it occasionally, and Mariota could rarely. But Brady and Rodgers could do it consistently. If the defense presented a challenge, then they would counter with throwing to that receiver. Brady and Rodgers took advantage of the weaknesses within defenses and didn’t try to do too much or force it. They have the ability to throw receivers more open by throwing the football to the side of the receiver away from the defender. Lastly, Brady and Rodgers threw to their check downs on time to allow them some run-after-the-catch opportunities. Those may appear like wasted pass plays, but it keeps the offense on schedule. Second and 6 has more options available than 2nd and 10, which creates more indecision for defensive play calls, personnel packages, pass rush, and time needed in the pocket. All in all, it’s really just a masterpiece to watch how in control Brady and Rodgers are of the entire field and everything that happens within it.

Disclaimer: Coaches are critical by the nature of the profession. I will reveal the good and bad about players. It doesn’t mean I’m a homer or a hater, so the kids say. It’s just honesty.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay

This was a hard-fought game between two potential playoff teams. Both had injuries to key offensive players, which made moving the football more difficult against these very good defenses. Turnovers in key situations kept the scoring down, as did negative plays and penalties. For example, Tampa Bay needed a touchdown in the 4th quarter and started the drive with a 25-yard gain to midfield. Then on 1st and 10, ran a double reverse, which was fumbled. The result was a loss of 12 yards, and the drive stalled. Green Bay came out of the gates hot with touchdowns on their initial two drives of the game and was up 14-3 at the half. Tampa Bay rallied to bring the score to 14-12 but failed to convert the two-point conversion.

Tom Brady

The Good

• Throws the football on time, which helped combat the lack of separation from his receivers

• Still showed plenty of zip on the football

• Very accurate

• Shows touch on passes

• Smart player who takes what the defense gives him

The Bad

• Delay of game on the two-point conversion may have cost them the game

• Moves in the pocket to buy time, but he can’t avoid rushers very well with his lack of athleticism

Takeaway

• Brady played well without Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and being down some offensive lineman. He played within the scheme and kept them in the game. Brady hasn’t lost much of anything and could play longer than this year if he wanted.

Leonard Fournette

The Good

• Patient runner, who will let holes develop

• Powerful player

• Good hands and an asset in the passing game

• Better playing north and south

The Bad

• Not overly quick and might’ve lost some quickness

• Missed a few holes trying to do too much or bounce outside

Takeaway

• Fournette didn’t have a great game; part of it was due to vision and not running downhill quickly enough. He’s a good player, but he could’ve played better. Chicago ran all over Green Bay’s defense, which is why it’s a little concerning. If he strings a few of these games in a row, it might be time to move on from Fournette.

Aaron Rodgers

The Good

• Very quick processor of information

• Takes advantage of the space the defense gives him

• Got his weapons involved with easy receptions

• Quick release

• Good ball fakes make the outside zone and run action tough to differentiate

• Takes smart, calculated risks for shots down the field

The Bad

• Stared down a read, and the safety read his eyes and intercepted the pass

• Offense only accounted for 149 yards after the initial two drives scored touchdowns, and he’s got to help dig them out of that

Takeaway

• Rodgers is a fantastic player who is in complete control on the field. He misses Davante Adams, but he’s efficient with the weapons around him due to timing and accuracy with his passes. He may not be a top fantasy asset this year, but he’s still a good quarterback.

Aaron Jones

The Good

• Good burst and contact balance

• Makes correct reads in the zone scheme

• Patient runner, who will set up blocks and maximize runs

• Weapon in the receiving game

The Bad

• Lost a fumble near the goalline due to a big hit from Vita Vea and Lavonte David, which was a turning point in the game

Takeaway

• This could be a hot take, but Aaron Jones is the most important player in that offense right now. Looking at the season-long numbers, he’s head, shoulders, knees, and toes above Dillon. Jones is a master at the outside zone scheme, and his numbers should pick up when he’s not playing a great defense like the Bucs.

A.J. Dillon

The Good

• Shows good hands out of the backfield

• Contact balance allows him to keep churning his legs for yardage

The Bad

• Missed multiple open holes this game

• Runs timid in traffic and doesn’t run through defenders like a player should his size

Takeaway

• Dillon was disappointing this game and for 2022. He’s regressed as a player and simply not producing. His rushing YPC over expected is at -0.71. I’d move Dillon to the bench until further notice.

Romeo Doubs

The Good

• Good overall athlete

• Did his job, and it’s helping him gain trust with Rodgers

• Green Bay designed touches for him

• Solid route running

• Gaining confidence

The Bad

• Got the football punched out at the end of a reception, but recovered it

• Isn’t going to make lots of defenders miss or look to be creative after the reception

Takeaway

• This game was a big step for Doubs because he’s getting plays designed for him, and Rodgers is looking his way, which shows rapport and trust. He’s a solid all-around player, but I don’t see a superstar. He could be a WR3 for the rest of the season if Rodgers continues to trust him.

Allen Lazard

The Good

• Has taken the next step with his chemistry with Rodgers in regards to sight adjustments, RPOs, and mismatches

• Uses his large frame to shield defenders from the football

• Good releases at the line set him up to be successful throughout his routes

The Bad

• Low volume on a slow-paced offense

Takeaway

• Lazard has produced two touchdowns at the goal line this season, which makes him the favorite target for Rodgers in the red zone. He’s stepping up, and Rodgers trusts him. However, the offense is low volume and slow, which doesn’t create a ton of opportunities. Lazard is more of a flex play this season.

Atlanta at Seattle

Both teams generated lots of yards in this game, but I don’t see it as a result of great offensive play. Instead, the defenses weren't very talented and gave away big plays. Which isn’t even counting the multiple other plays that were very close to happening as well. The Falcons were a more efficient offense and got the win, despite more turnovers and fewer offensive plays run. The biggest difference was the Falcons running game in the second half, and it really put the game on ice.

Geno Smith

The Good

• Throws the ball on time when the initial read is open

• Hones in on Metcalf and Lockett because they produce

• Comfortable and confident in this offense

• Gave two good opportunities to Metcalf in the end zone and it almost produced two touchdowns

• Tries to limit mistakes by missing low on passes

The Bad

• Late on a pass and threw it into triple coverage, but it wasn’t intercepted

• Doesn’t go beyond the initial read very often and throws to that player almost without fail, which can create some tightly contested passes, pass breakups and turnovers

Takeaway

• More impressed with Geno Smith on tape then I expected. He has command and confidence within this offense and throws the football on time. Wasn’t afraid to throw at the Falcons' top defender, AJ Terrell. Smith is a play in fantasy if you need some help in superflex or a cheap DFS play against a bad defense. The other good news is Smith will keep force-feeding Metcalf and Locket.

Rashaad Penny

The Good

• Advanced degree in the outside zone scheme, which requires patience, timing and vision to be successful

• Gets the most agility he can out of his athletic ability

• Made a defender miss with a jump cut

• Good overall athlete with burst

The Bad

• Has some stiff hips, which limits agility

• Not a factor in the passing game, but did have a screen pass called back on a penalty

Takeaway

• Penny is a good runner, and I don’t see him giving this backfield up for Walker unless he gets injured. He is a much better fit in the scheme right now, and he’s producing. He’s a better fantasy play in standard versus PPR.

Ken Walker

The Good

• Solid hands out of the backfield

• Very energetic with his athleticism

• Broke a tackle on a jet sweep and then reversed field, which made him run about 70 total yards on the play

• Being utilized in the passing game

The Bad

• Trying to do too much and forcing plays to happen

• Went the wrong way on a run play before the handoff

• Bounced a run outside that should’ve gone inside

Takeaway

• The talent is there for Walker, but he’s simply not ready yet. He’s trying too hard, and it’s hurting the offense. He still needs to do some work to get comfortable with the outside zone scheme and develop patience. I’m not overly confident in Walker’s fantasy outlook for 2022.

Tyler Lockett

The Good

• Smart route runner who finds and settles down in zones in the defense

• Smith looks Lockett’s way in key situations

• Reliable to catch the football, even if he body catches most targets

The Bad

• Limits his YAC by getting down and not taking any hits

Takeaway

• Steady play and always underrated. Lockett will produce and be a WR3/4 type in fantasy.

DK Metcalf

The Good

• Evolving as a route runner

• High points the football in traffic and it almost resulted in multiple touchdowns

• Good sideline catch against Terrell

• Very good athlete

The Bad

• Didn’t get the second foot down to get another touchdown

• Found the open area on a bender but alligator-armed it as he anticipated a hit from the safety, and it led to a drop

Takeaway

• Metcalf is a great athlete who has become a complete wide receiver. He can win anywhere on the field and creates mismatch opportunities against any defender.

Marcus Mariota

The Good

• Still possesses good athleticism

• Good base in the pocket

• Threw a hot read to London for a touchdown

The Bad

• 1st read thrower, which limits the offense

• Not great when plays break down, and he has to go off script, which was surprising for an athletic quarterback

• Fumbled a zone read handoff, which gave Seattle the football

• Stares down receivers

• Missed open receivers because they were secondary reads

• Deep accuracy is a weakness

Takeaway

• Disappointed with Marcus Mariota’s film. He’s limiting this offense with his decision-making and accuracy. The Falcons could’ve had multiple other touchdowns if he placed the football a few feet in other directions to London and Pitts. I wouldn’t trust Mariota in fantasy anymore and doubt he’s a long-term starter in Atlanta.

Cordarrelle Patterson

The Good

• Master of using space and timing to add yardage

• Still a springy athlete with burst and even hurdled a defender

• Great fit for the outside zone scheme because he can threaten defenders with his speed outside, but his cutting ability and vision allow him to make cutbacks for big gains

• Really gashed the Seattle defense in the second half

The Bad

• Only had one target, which limits his PPR value

Takeaway

• Offensive player of the week honors are the result of performances like this. Patterson had many good plays, and the Seattle defenders were no match for him. He’s going to continue to be a fantasy asset you want, but I hope he gets more receptions moving forward.

Drake London

The Good

• Better athlete than most expect for his size

• Good route on a play action by selling his block and then got open for a big gain

• Fought to get into the end zone through a tackle attempt

The Bad

• Got a deep target knocked out of his hands that could’ve been a touchdown

• Stepped out of bounds before a pass thrown, and it took away a good sideline catch

• Limited amount of targets

Takeaway

• London is fun to watch on film because of his size, route running, athleticism, and toughness. He’s a dynasty player to acquire, but he’ll have limited and not ideal targets with Mariota at quarterback.

Kyle Pitts

The Good

• Good athlete for his size

• Atlanta finally made an effort to design plays for him

• Sold his block well on a TE screen

• Bodied the defender away on a back shoulder wheel route out of the backfield

The Bad

• Not sudden with his movements

• Mariota missed him wide open on multiple plays

Takeaway

• Pitts is still more of an athlete and needs more refinement, but he’s still a mismatch. The problem is Atlanta is limited with Mariota and I don’t see the opportunities being great or plentiful.