Cutting Through the Noise, Week 7

Each week in Cutting Through the Noise, we will take an objective look at one of the most polarizing players in Dynasty Fantasy Football as decided by the Footballguys Dynasty Discord. We will use the Footballguys consensus rankings to gauge where the player is currently valued.

Christian McCaffrey

RB4 and Overall No. 12

In 2017 Christian McCaffrey was one of the most polarizing players in college football. He racked up a respectable 3922 yards rushing and 1206 yards receiving but scored just 21 touchdowns in three years. Two of which he was starting. Perhaps his most important counting stat was his 92 receptions over his final two seasons, as a high catch total is typically a strong indicator of fantasy success for running backs.

The NFL valued McCaffrey enough to draft him in the top 10, but Dynasty managers were hesitant to take him second overall in rookie drafts. This had less to do with McCaffrey and more to do with one of the more prolific rookie drafts we have ever seen. At the time, McCaffrey’s primary competition for draft capital was Corey Davis, Leonard Fournette, and Mike Williams. Soon after the draft, the competition grew. This class ended up producing the likes of Cooper Kupp, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Patrick Mahomes II, and Deshaun Watson, to name a few. Despite the early showing of this historic class, McCaffrey quickly paid off for the managers who drafted him.

Even with a lack of rushing production in his first season, he managed 80 receptions on 113 targets. Since 2017 he has put together an impressive portfolio that includes one of the NFL’s best statistical years in 2019. Unfortunately, he has battled injury the past two seasons. This year he’s been the RB4 in PPR through six games and has just been traded to the San Francisco 49ers.

The Good

The most important piece to the Christian McCaffrey puzzle is his health. He has played in every game this season and has missed practice only due to precaution or rest. When healthy, he has consistently proven he’s in a league of his own, even on one of the worst offenses in the league. He’s outside the top 50 in yards before contact, yet he’s 12th in yards and 27th in YPC amongst backs with at least 10 carries. This is a strong indicator that he is still able to create production for himself.

McCaffrey now joins the 49ers, who, as of October 20, headlines our very own Matt Bitonti’s Week 7 Offensive Line Rankings article. He has moved them up 19 spots this week with the expected addition of Trent Williams to the starting lineup just in time to feature McCaffrey. Elijah Mitchell will return from IR in the coming weeks, but given the capital spent on McCaffrey, it’s unlikely he sees less than 15 combined touches a game. He was already producing at a high level, even if it didn’t feel like the true Christian McCaffrey of yesteryear. Now we must assume he comes much closer to paying off for those who decided to take him first overall like me.

The Bad

While heading to play for an offensive genius the likes of Kyle Shanahan should be positive, the 49ers have not been all they were cracked up to be this season. Of course, they lost their dual-threat quarterback in Trey Lance, but at this point, it doesn’t seem like that would’ve mattered. They’re 20th in total points and points per game. They’re passing at the league's sixth-lowest rate. They’re featuring the running back in the passing game at one of the league’s lowest rates as well, though this one is debatable as Deebo Samuel catches passes out of the backfield.

Speaking of Samuel, how does his role play into the new working dynamic between him and McCaffrey? Though largely narrative-based, the addition of McCaffrey could be partly in relief of Samuel’s backfield effort as it was rumored that his trade request was due to his disinterest in playing running back. Once Samuel’s contract was signed and the season began, he dispelled those rumors and has not been shy about contact out of the backfield. The most likely outcome is for Samuel to still factor into the running back rotation with McCaffrey and Mitchell.

Perhaps the worst case for McCaffrey’s value to hold has nothing to do with his new destination. It’s his age. He’s turned 26 this year, and while it feels ridiculous to be at the point of considering 26 old, he is in his 6th season because he joined the league at just 21, and it doesn’t help that he spent the better part of two years injured. He’s young enough to return quality fantasy production and potentially win championships the next two seasons, but he’s old enough to start his never-ending decent in dynasty value.

Conclusion

In the short term, Christian McCaffrey has massively improved his fantasy outlook. The Panthers are becoming a tragedy, and there is no light at the end of their tunnel. They’re without a quarterback, a head coach, and a competent front offense. They have one of the league’s worst offensive lines and were bottom ten in scoring. Getting out of Carolina alone is enough to be happy if you’ve got McCaffrey on your roster.

The unfortunate piece of this is that we’ve already reached a decision point for McCaffrey. Just as we had to do when Derrick Henry signed his extension, we now must take McCaffrey’s last chance at increased value and decide if it’s time to move on. While McCaffrey is in the news with the prospects of playing for Kyle Shanahan, we have the chance to begrudgingly move him. Of course, if we’re contending, we hold tight and ride off into the sunset with McCaffrey leading the charge, but if we’re out of contention, it’s time to take an honest look in the mirror.

McCaffrey with be 27 next season and already has a few young running backs kicking him out of the top 12. Next season we will have at least one, and potentially two prospects ranked ahead of him the moment they’re drafted. The writing is on the wall for the start of McCaffrey’s descent. If you make the difficult decision to trade him, just make sure your return makes you happy enough to hold back your tears for the next couple of years of his success with the 49ers.