Links to similar discussions on other positions:
A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should outperform their draft position.
Here are the players who received the most votes:
And here are all of the players mentioned and the reasons why.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay
Gary Davenport: It sounds weird to call Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. undervalued—all Brady has done in his career is become the most accomplished quarterback in NFL history, both in terms of individual statistics and Super Bowl wins. And yet, here we are, living in a world where Tommy Terrific is being drafted as a low-end QB1. Yes, Brady's old. By NFL standards, he's a geezer. But he's a geezer who just led the league in both passing yards (a career-high 5,314) and touchdown passes on the way to a QB2 fantasy finish. Even if Chris Godwin takes a little time to work his way back into form after last year's ACL tear, Brady still has Mike Evans and Russell Gage at his disposal, and it's still possible Rob Gronkowski will run it back one more time. Given his current ADP, Brady is being drafted at his fantasy floor—and then some.
Chad Parsons: Brady has 18 seasons as a top-12 quarterback in adjusted points-per-game, including eight as a top-six option. His QB2 finish a year ago returns largely the same supporting talent with Chris Godwin back a few weeks into the season at the latest and Rob Gronkowski likely to return as well. Bet on Brady until he shows a Ben Roethlisberger-type decline or is out of the NFL.
Ryan Weisse: I usually try to be different in these posts, but I also like to be correct. Last year's QB2 is going off the board as the QB9 and typically being drafted after you hit double-digit rounds. That is the definition of value. While you can argue a downgrade in pass-catchers, he still has Mike Evans and will get Chris Godwin back by mid-season. The Buccaneers' offense is not going to change much and has led the league in passing over the last two seasons. Brady has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in each of the previous three seasons, all over the age of 40, so we can put the age thing to bed for now.
Jason Wood: Brady should be everyone's choice unless you're an ageist. Yes, he'll turn 45 in August, but as a 44-year old he led the NFL in attempts, completions, passing yards, and touchdown passes en route to finishing as the No. 2 fantasy quarterback. His entire cadre of weapons is back (assuming Gronkowski un-retires), running the same system with the same play-caller. Putting him outside the Top 5 is a joke.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas
Andy Hicks: Derek Carr has consistently rated near the middle of fantasy and NFL quarterbacks. With the arrival of Davante Adams, that should change. In his eight-year career, he only finished as a QB1 once. Last year and it was as the 12th ranked quarterback. Carr hasn’t always had the best of coaching groups around him. Josh McDaniels isn’t a sure-fire guy to change that, but he should bring an improved offense. Carr is unlikely to break into the top six, but bottom-end QB1 easily outplays his draft slot.
Jordan McNamara: Derek Carr has the 6th best odds to lead the league in passing yards. Carr gets a new Head Coach Josh McDaniels and a weapon in Davante Adams heading into the 2022 season. Add in the fact the Raiders' defense struggles to stop anyone in the best offensive division in the NFL, and you have a combination of weapons and volume that could vault Carr toward the top of the position in fantasy production.
Sam Wagman: I love the opportunity cost that is baked into Carr’s ranking right now. The Raiders’ offense is set to pass more than ever this season with Davante Adams and his 2021 numbers of 169 targets coming over to play with his best friend in Vegas. This offense sets up perfectly for Carr to pass for over 5,000 yards this season due to the overall upgrades of the division around them and with Adams, a healthy Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow all in the mix, we could see a career high in touchdown passes for Carr as well. He should surpass his yardage totals from last season soundly.
Ryan Weisse: When looking for value at quarterback, you want a low draft cost and high upside. Carr is the QB15 by ADP, meaning he is free in some drafts. He also landed one of the best possible weapons in football this offseason. With a new coach that is focused on the offense, and Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller to throw the ball to, it is a mistake to assume that we've seen the best of Derek Carr. He was the QB14 last year without all of these positives going for him. Expect better in 2022.
Justin Fields, Chicago
Phil Alexander: Trey Lance and Justin Fields share too many similarities to justify the current 40-pick gap in their respective ADPs. If you're searching for a big-armed, dual-threat quarterback who can emerge as a set-it-and-forget-it fantasy starter, embrace arbitrage by choosing Fields. You're likely to secure similar quarterback production while adding the higher-quality running back and wide receiver depth your team needs to sustain inevitable injuries and early-round draft busts.
Jeff Bell: Only eight rookie quarterbacks have topped Justin Fields' 420 rushing yards as a rookie and Fields did it while only playing 12 games. It would be hard to get thrust into a more difficult situation with Matt Nagy's management and playcalling and the lack of first-team offseason reps. Still, over his last five games, Fields showed signs of putting it together, with a 60% competition and 84 passer rating, in line with a player like Jalen Hurts. With Chicago in the midst of a rebuild, Fields will be put in a position to chase points on the scoreboard, a proven formula to harvest fantasy points.
James Brimacombe: Fields is coming off of a rough rookie season with just nine total touchdowns in 12 games. He was thrown into the fire in his rookie season and you could say the same thing about his second season as the Bears did very little to upgrade the offense for him. His ADP is priced based on both of those factors as most drafters are scared off of his rookie season and the lack of offseason upgrades. I am betting on talent with Fields and like the discount on a potential dual-threat quarterback.
Dave Kluge: Justin Fields didn’t live up to his lofty expectations as a rookie. But the plan was for him to sit on the bench and develop, as most pundits agreed that he wouldn’t be ready for an NFL field early in his rookie season. Well, a Week 2 injury to Andy Dalton pushed him onto the field earlier than expected, and he clearly was not ready. He played 65 percent or more of the team's snaps in ten games. Through the first six, he was a liability both on the field and in fantasy lineups. But the last four games showed us what his potential is. He averaged 244 passing yards, 64 rushing yards, and 20.6 fantasy points per game. That would have been the QB9 in per-game output last year. Now, with a new coaching staff and an entire offseason with the first team, it’s easy to envision him taking a step forward. While the Bears are projected just 5.5 wins on the year, garbage time points still count in fantasy. The Bears will often play from behind, which should translate into late-game passing yards and plenty of scrambling.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Anthony Amico: Hurts has a top-six ADP but should compete to be the QB1 overall in 2022. He already brings the rushing value we love, posting 784 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground in 2021 in 15 games. Now the passing is set to take a step forward with the addition of A.J. Brown to play alongside Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
Jeff Bell: Choosing the sixth overall quarterback as undervalued is aggressive, but through the first half of last year, Hurts was running at QB3. In the second half, the team switched to a run-heavier approach, and Hurts suffered an ankle injury to slow down his pace but the ceiling is evident. In the offseason, the team added A.J. Brown who will serve to shift DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert into favorable coverage situations. The stage is set for Hurts to carry his early-season production through the full year and exceed his ADP.
Jordan McNamara: Jalen Hurts got more weapons with the trade for A.J. Brown on draft day. Add Brown to Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, and you have one of, if not the most, efficient set of weapons in the league. Hurts' passing volume dropped by a third when Philadelphia went to a run-heavy offense at midseason, which capped his upside, but the Brown trade could signal a pivot back to the passing game. Hurts has QB1 in his range of outcomes, and has a good floor in season-long leagues.
Sam Wagman: There is a shortlist of quarterbacks who can finish as the QB1 overall this year in fantasy football. Hurts is most definitely on that list. All we’ve been hearing this spring is how he looks more confident, his throws are more on target, and most importantly, he has one of his best friends in A.J. Brown as his new WR1. This offense will put a premium on play-action and letting Hurts be the captain, so we can expect a solid amount of running from Hurts who racked up over 700 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground last year. He should also be able to improve on his mediocre passing statistics and post a strong fantasy season in the process. Konami Code is alive and well!
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
Anthony Amico: It was a rookie season to forget for the top overall pick in 2021, but the Jaguars were among the most dysfunctional franchises in sports under Urban Meyer. Jacksonville went out and signed Christian Kirk and Evan Engram in free agency, shored up the offensive line, and brought in Doug Pederson to be the head coach. That is a lot of positive change for a young signal-caller. Lawrence also has above-average rushing ability, bringing a bonus to his scoring.
Ben Cummins: Stuck in the crosshairs of Urban Meyer and playing with one of the worst supporting casts in the game, Lawrence struggled as a rookie. I’m not overreacting considering Lawrence was one of the best quarterback prospects to enter the league in a long-time and despite no extreme headliner, Jacksonville did improve Lawrence’s weapons this offseason by adding Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. And Lawrence’s college teammate, Travis Etienne, will provide juice out of the backfield as he appears set to make his NFL debut in week 1. Jacksonville projects to stink again, meaning Lawrence will likely throw a ton, he plays in the favorable AFC South, and he offers some rushing upside (334 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2021) as well.
Jeff Haseley: I am not buying that Trevor Lawrence is a bust after one year of less-than-desirable production. We've seen time and again second-year quarterbacks take a big leap forward. Lawrence, under Doug Pederson, with an improved offense, has the tools and all-pro pedigree to take his talents to the next level. His rushing upside is also a reason to be optimistic. Even a slight or gradual increase in his passing prowess should elevate his standings in the quarterback rankings.
Chad Parsons: Top-overall-draft-pick quarterbacks are strong bets for top-six upside. This is largely independent of how high or low they finish in Year 1. Lawrence gets a factory reset with Urban Meyer gone and the weapons considerably better than a year ago. Lawrence has rushing upside plus the pedigree to expect a strong turnaround in 2022.
Russell Wilson, Denver
Drew Davenport: Wilson's 10-year career in Seattle has produced some truly eye-popping numbers that some might overlook. He's only thrown more than 11 interceptions once. His touchdown rate has only been below 6% twice. He's been below 342 yards rushing only once and that was his injury-shortened 2021 campaign. Wilson is, quite simply, an incredibly efficient thrower of the football, and despite Seattle's limitations he managed to continue to produce for fantasy managers year after year because of that efficiency. His sneaky rushing upside is the topper for his fantasy profile. Based on his career it's reasonable to expect a floor of 300 yards rushing, and 2-3 scores on the ground wouldn't be an outlier either. Wilson's ADP doesn't seem to be taking into account a new situation which has all the appearances of being a net positive for his fantasy prospects. He's a good bet to outperform his current draft slot.
Gary Davenport: If ever there was a year to be patient at the quarterback position, 2022 is that year. The lower end of the top-12 in terms of ADP is littered with proven veteran options with top-five fantasy upside—options like Russell Wilson. Yes, Wilson's 2021 campaign was an injury-marred disappointment, but two years ago Wilson topped 4,200 passing yards with 42 touchdowns—numbers that landed him in the top five among quarterbacks. In Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick, Wilson has arguably the most talent at wideout of his career, and while Denver's offensive line isn't great it's better than the quintet of matadors that "protected" Wilson in Seattle the past few years. Wilson should be highly motivated to show that all that draft capital the Broncos gave the Seahawks was well-spent, and a serious injury is just about the only thing that can stop Wilson from out-performing his draft slot—quite possibly by a mile. This is a season to pound away at running back. Wail at wide receiver. Invest in a quality tight end. And then swoop in late for a value like Wilson under center.
Jonathan Morris: Now is the perfect time to buy in on Russell Wilson. Let his down year with the Seahawks, which involved a new offensive coordinator and a finger injury make your fellow league members want to pass on him. He is arguably in the best situation of his career with a multitude of weapons at the skill positions, along with the best offensive line he has had in his career. Now, the AFC West has a lot of firepower, but I see that as an advantage for Wilson. Multiple games against high-scoring offenses mean a whole lot of throwing the ball. With his running ability also providing a high floor, look for Wilson to return to his pre-2021 numbers.
Jason Wood: Look at what Tom Brady did in his first year in Tampa Bay. Look at what Matthew Stafford did in his first year in Los Angeles. Russell Wilson may not be better than Brady, but he's better than Stafford and gets unleashed in Denver pushing for a late-career Super Bowl push. The Broncos have enticing skill players all over the roster, and you can be sure Wilson will see a career-best passing volume. If he's healthy, he's demolishing his ADP.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Continue reading this content with a PRO subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE