#Trendspotting: Week 12

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

Some key items are below:

• All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Pass Protection Performance

Be sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up-to-date regarding updates to all articles I write here at FootballGuys. Feel free to reach out at any time with questions, comments, and concerns about this article or anything else fantasy football-related.

Tweets of the Week

TJ Hockenson had a *rough* game against Pittsburgh last week, but his target shares over his last five are more than fine: 28.2%, 29.0%, 34.4%, 4.2%, 34.8%

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 22, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• T.J. Hockenson has returned to form as a top-tier fantasy asset at tight end in recent weeks. As JJ Zachariason noted on Twitter earlier this week, Hockenson has strung together one of the best five-week stretches of any tight end in the NFL this season across his last five outings. Hockenson commanded at least 8 targets in 4 out of 5 of those games, topping out at 11 targets twice. Additionally, despite his sky-high target share in Detroit's passing attack, T.J. Hockenson has not found the end zone since Week 2. If his luck turns around and he is able to find paydirt, T.J. Hockenson could be a league-winning player at one of fantasy football's thinnest positions. Prioritize fitting the former-Iowa Hawkeye into DFS lineups on the Thursday-only slate of games in Week 12.

Cowboys WR routes run yesterday. Note Amari Cooper (COVID) was out and CeeDee Lamb (concussion) left early. On 50 Dak dropbacks:

Michael Gallup 47
Cedrick Wilson 33
Noah Brown 33
CeeDee Lamb 25
Malik Turner 8

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 22, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Amari Cooper landed on the COVID/Reserve list late last week, massively shaking up Dallas's depth chart at wide receiver. Additionally, CeeDee Lamb went down with a concussion midway through the Cowboys' game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, America's Team will have a short week to rest up and prepare to host the Las Vegas Raiders on Thanksgiving Day. Cooper has already been ruled out for this matchup, while Lamb remains questionable. Regardless of Lamb's status, Michael Gallup is a quality option at wide receiver for both season-long and DFS lineups. Gallup played 90-percent of Dallas's offensive snaps last weekend, a massive increase from his numbers earlier in the season. Now, playing at home, inside the dome of AT&T Stadium, against one of the league's weakest secondaries, Michael Gallup is poised to erupt. If CeeDee Lamb can suit up for the Cowboys' Turkey Day matchup with the AFC West's basement dwellers, he is a surefire starter in season-long formats, but his price on DraftKings may make it a bit more difficult to build DFS lineups around him.

Seattle has run 60 offensive plays just twice in a game this season.

The Texans are next closest with four.

Every other team in the league has at least five or more games. https://t.co/bcep650xCp

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 22, 2021

Commentary and Action Items:

• Seattle's offensive struggles this season have been no secret. This season, Pete Carroll's outdated philosophies have finally caught up to the Seahawks, as they rank 24th in the NFL with just 19.4 points per game. Although some of this ranking can be explained by a stretch of games with Geno Smith at the helm while Russell Wilson recovered from a finger injury, the team has scored just one touchdown in Wilson's two games since returning to the starting lineup. The team's miserably slow pace is one of the driving forces behind its offensive struggles. Earlier this week, Rich Hribar noted on Twitter that they have only run 60+ offensive plays twice this season. After last week's loss to the Arizona Cardinals, Russell Wilson noted the team's improved offensive efficiency running a no-huddle offense, which aligns with league-wide trends. Suppose Seattle appeases Wilson and relies upon its uptempo offense more, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett could explode down the stretch this season. However, if they remain stuck in the stone age on offense, asking an inefficient rushing attack to wear down defenses-- which has repeatedly proven to be an ineffective offensive approach-- Seattle's offense will remain a fantasy football wasteland. Keep a watchful eye on the Seahawks' offensive tempo in Week 12 against the Washington Football Team, and be prepared to buy low on Seattle's offensive weapons if the offensive approach takes a turn for the better.

Pass Protection Performance

2 independent measures of team-level pass protection.

The Bears, Patriots, and Jaguars all being about the same on both measures continues to be funny given the discourse around Jones versus Lawrence/Fields

And look at the Vikings on here! pic.twitter.com/qOU8MNYKTk

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 23, 2021

Above, the chart Ben Baldwin tweeted plots two independent pass protection metrics-- PFF pass-blocking grade and ESPN pass-block win-rate-- against each other to identify which offensive line units are excelling across the board. The best offensive lines are in the top right area of the chart, while the worst teams are in the bottom left area of the chart.

TEAMS HOLDING THEIR OWN IN THE TRENCHES

Commentary and Action Items:

• The cluster of teams at the top right stands out immediately. The Los Angeles Rams, Washington Football Team, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs all grade well in both pass-protection metrics plotted.
• Unsurprisingly, the Rams, Packers, and Chiefs each field above-average passing attacks with MVP candidates at quarterback. A clean pocket is essential to success in the passing game, and all three of these offenses should remain top-end offenses through the air as the season comes to a close.
• On the other hand, Philadelphia and Washington joining the trio mentioned above is unexpected. Neither team ranks near the top of the league's leaderboards in passing efficiency, but the makings of an above-average passing attack are present.
  • In Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts is one of the league's youngest starting quarterbacks. At just 23 years old, the second-year signal-caller is only 4 months older than some of the top collegiate quarterback prospects that will be in next Spring's NFL Draft. Additionally, Hurts is playing under his sixth different offensive coordinator in the six years since he entered college at Alabama. Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia passing attack have immense upside down the stretch this season, as Hurts grows comfortable in this offense while operating from a clean pocket almost as often as anyone in the NFL. Look for DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to continue to command the majority of targets in this offense, making them high-quality fantasy assets.
  • In Washington, Taylor Heinicke is also growing more comfortable with each passing week. The last two weeks were the first time all season the Heinicke recorded back-to-back games with a quarterback rating over 100.0 this year. Although his raw passing totals have been nothing to write home about, the return of tight end Logan Thomas could provide the boost needed for Heinicke to become a fantasy-relevant quarterback for the remainder of the season. Last weekend, Terry McLaurin posted his 4th game with 100-yards and a touchdown this season, and there should be more to come as Washington's offensive line continues to stifle the opposing pass rush each week.

TEAMS FOLDING UNDER PRESSURE

Commentary and Action Items:

• At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, New York Giants, and Tennessee Titans stand out as especially weak pass protecting offensive lines.
• Earlier this week, the New York Giants fired their offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett. While this is a step in the right direction for a dysfunctional franchise, there are far greater issues at hand. Chief among them is the lack of pass protection for Daniel Jones. Although the team has invested heavily in pass-catchers over recent seasons, the talent on the outside will continue to be rendered useless without significant improvement in the trenches. Do not immediately assume that the Giants' passing attack will improve under new leadership, as the offensive line's struggles should continue to hamstring this unit until numerous personnel upgrades occur.
• The Tennessee Titans have struggled through the air this season for a multitude of reasons. The team's receiving corps has struggled to remain healthy all season, missing its top three pass-catchers at times throughout the first 11 weeks of the season. Now, with Julio Jones on the injured reserve, A.J. Brown battling an injury, and tight end Geoff Swaim hampered, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will have a massive uphill battle ahead of him to close 2021, especially if the offensive line continues to struggle. The lone reason for optimism for Tannehill and the Titans' passing game would be the soft remaining schedule, which features matchups against some of the league's worst teams in Houston, Miami, and Jacksonville. However, if last week's struggles against the Houston Texans are any indicator, Tennessee's depleted passing attack could drift towards the bottom of the NFL's ranks in passing efficiency and fantasy production.
• The Minnesota Vikings' passing attack has been feast-or-famine this year, with 4 games of over 300 passing yards to go along with 3 games of under 200 passing yards. An offense with elite weapons on the outside like Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen should rarely if ever, be held under 200 yards through the air. The team's suspect pass blocking this season could be an explanation for this erratic performance through the air. Despite the lackluster protection he has received this year, Kirk Cousins ranks sixth in the league in adjusted-yards-per-attempt and 8th in total QBR. Minnesota's offensive line performance is one to keep an eye on for the remainder of the season. Any improvement in the trenches could reveal the true ceiling of the Vikings' passing attack. However, if the protection remains unimpressive, the floor could fall out from under this passing attack, whose combination of poor offensive line play and impressive passing efficiency is quite unsustainable.