#Trendspotting: Week 18

Photo: USA Today Sports

READER'S GUIDE

Some key items are below:

• All references to fantasy points assume DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2021 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week

• What's at Stake?

Be sure to follow me on Twitter to stay up-to-date regarding updates to all articles I write here at FootballGuys. Feel free to reach out at any time with questions, comments, and concerns about this article or anything else fantasy football-related.

Tweets of the Week

Society can’t allow this to happen pic.twitter.com/CLHrpusMLH

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) January 4, 2022

Commentary and Action Items:

• The image in Josh Norris's tweet shows all of Ben Roethlisberger's pass attempts from Monday night against the Browns. The green dots are completed passes, the white dots are incompletions, the red dots are interceptions, and the green dots with arcs drawn to them are touchdowns. This game was a historically low-risk performance, where he threw for only 2.67 yards per pass attempt. The gameplan was clearly designed for Roethlisberger to minimize risk and get the ball in the hands of his playmakers like Diontae Johnson on the outside as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, Johnson landed on the Reserve/COVID List earlier this week. His absence will force Chase Claypool and Ray-Ray McCloud into larger roles at wide receiver. Both Claypool, priced at $5,100 on DraftKings, and McCloud, priced at $3,800 on DraftKings, become enticing high-floor, low-ceiling DFS targets due to Johnson's absence and Roethlisberger's risk-averse approach.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring) said he believes he'll play Sunday. Needs 50 yards to set the NFL's record for rookie tight end receiving yard.

"My biggest priority now is to beat the Saints because it’s the last game and they’re a divisional opponent and it’s the Saints."

— Josh Kendall (@JoshTheAthletic) January 6, 2022

Commentary and Action Items:

• Above, Josh Kendall quoted Kyle Pitts earlier this week regarding his availability for the final outing of his impressive rookie campaign. As Kendall notes, Pitts needs only 50 receiving yards to break Mike Ditka's rookie receiving record for a tight end. Make no mistake, while Pitts certainly wants to go out and defeat a divisional opponent with their playoff life on the line, he also has his eyes set on the record. Pitts entered the NFL with sky-high expectations, and although he hasn't made headlines like some of the other rookie pass-catchers, he has lived up to expectations. Expect Atlanta's standout tight end to suit up this weekend with a fantastic opportunity to etch his name into the NFL record books. At $5,700, Pitts is warrants his spot as one of the highest-priced players at the position, and he should be considered as a top-tier option for DFS lineups in contests of all formats in Week 18.

Most total fantasy points scored by a rookie WR in Weeks 13-17 all-time:

2014 Odell Beckham (160.9)
1998 Randy Moss (129.2)
2021 Amon-Ra St. Brown (125)
2021 Ja'Marr Chase (111.9)
2011 Julio Jones (105.6)

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) January 6, 2022

Commentary and Action Items:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown made headlines as a breakout rookie for the Detroit Lions over the last month of the season. The extent to which the rookie out of USC erupted rivals some of the most well-known and exceptionally talented young pass-catchers in recent NFL history. Primarily playing out of the slot, he quickly became Jared Goff's favorite target in Detroit's passing game. Still, despite scoring at least 23.5 DraftKings points in 4 of his last 5 outings, he is priced at $6,800 this weekend. This affordable price tag, a high-volume role in Detroit's offense, and an opportunity to finish the year with one of the most impressive six-week stretches in NFL history for a rookie wide receiver all combine to make Amon-Ra St. Brown one of the best wide receiver options on the final main slate of the regular season this weekend.

What's at Stake?

In the final week of the 2021-2022 NFL season, determining which teams have one foot out the door and which teams have something left to play for will be essential to assembling winning fantasy football lineups. Here is a summary of which teams have reason to give it their all in their final outing of the year.

• Kansas City vs. Denver
  • If Kansas City wins, they have an outside chance at winning the number-one seed in the AFC and earning a first-round bye.
  • If Denver wins, they have an outside chance at winning a wild card berth in the playoffs, but they would be eliminated with a loss.
• Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville
  • Indianapolis makes the playoffs if they win this matchup.
• New England vs. Miami
  • If New England wins and three unlikely upsets happen elsewhere, they earn the number-one seed in the AFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs.
• New Orleans vs. Atlanta
  • If New Orleans wins and San Francisco loses their matchup against Los Angeles, they make the playoffs, but they will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.
• Tennessee vs. Houston
  • If Tennessee wins, they earn the number-one seed in the AFC and will have a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
• Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore
  • Both teams need a win to stay alive for a playoff berth. However, both teams also need a multitude of upsets elsewhere to make the playoffs.
• Buffalo vs. New York Jets
  • Buffalo will finish first in the AFC East if they win and New England loses. If Buffalo loses, they will enter the playoffs as a wild card.
• San Francisco vs. Los Angeles Rams
  • San Francisco needs either a win or a New Orleans loss to make the playoffs as a wild card.
• Arizona vs. Seattle
  • Arizona needs a win and a San Francisco win to finish atop the NFC West. If either team loses, Arizona will enter the playoffs as a wild card.
• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas
  • This Sunday Night Football matchup is a must-win game for both teams. Thus, the final game of the 2021-2022 regular season is a de-facto playoff game.

Commentary and Action Items:

• Taysom Hill grades as one of the week's best DFS selections at quarterback for many reasons: first, his combination of rushing and passing production makes him an elite fantasy producer when he starts. Next, a soft matchup against the Atlanta Falcons' porous defense, which will take place inside the dome of Mercedes Benz Stadium, should foster a very scoring-friendly environment for his offense. Lastly, the high-motivation factor for his team, with a playoff berth on the line this weekend, will ensure that Hill and the Saints empty the tank in Week 18.
• The Tennessee Titans have their eyes set on the number-one seed in the AFC and the first-round bye that accompanies that spot. D'Onta Foreman projects to be the strongest fantasy asset from this side in a soft matchup against the Houston Texans. Foreman has toted the ball at least 19 times in 3 out of his last 5 outings, and this weekend is a great opportunity for him to register a 4th such game. At just $5,700 on DraftKings, Foreman is one of the most intriguing running backs on the final main slate of the season, given his role atop the team's depth chart and Tennessee's overall motivation to win this game.
• At the top-end of the player pool, Kyler Murray is the most enticing quarterback option. Priced at $7,300 for the final main slate of the 2021-2022 regular season, Murray will lead the Cardinals into a must-win game if they want to win the NFC West. Additionally, this matchup against the Seattle Seahawks' struggling defense will go down inside the dome of State Farm Stadium. With both of Arizona's preferred running backs on the injury report, listed as questionable for the game, Murray could also see increased rushing volume, which unlocks the 30+ point ceiling desired from a high-priced quarterback.
• Devin Singletary's late-season surge as the Bills' number-one running back has been one of the biggest storylines for the side across the final month of the season. Singletary has scored at least 14.9 points in each of his last 4 outings, with a pair of 20-carry games during the stretch. Still, despite his increased role in Buffalo's offense, Singletary's $6,000 price tag on DraftKings is quite affordable. Given this mid-range price tag, his newfound rushing volume, and a high-leverage game for the Bills, Singletary projects to be one of the strongest running backs on the final main slate of the season.