The New Reality No.169: Dynasty Trading

Chad Parsons's The New Reality No.169: Dynasty Trading Chad Parsons Published 10/21/2021

The dynasty regular season is already almost half over, and in most leagues, the trade deadline is looming as early as Week 11. A feature on MyFantasyLeague.com is data on the Most Traded players across their hosted leagues. You can find it within any MFL league under Reports-Player-Top Adds/Drops/Starters. Then navigate the dropdown menu to "Traded" players. This is only for the current fantasy week, so if you want to track historical information, it would need to be collected manually each week. Here are some of the critical 'most traded players' of late to determine if a buyer or a seller:

Miles Sanders

Why: Despite flashes over his now three-year NFL career, Sanders has yet to put together a strong workload or a top-12 season in PPG. This season is more of the same, currently RB36 in PPG and averaging a tepid 12 touches per game. Sanders' market share of the Eagles' backfield is trending upward over the past two weeks, but Kenneth Gainwell is still proving to be a thorn in Sanders' receiving upside and Jalen Hurts is doing the same on the ground.

ACTION PLAN

Sanders' career arc and profile study in my RB Index points to a limited ceiling in 2022 and beyond. Few peers emerged into a top-12 option for even a single season. However, Sanders' profile odds are decent for at least one more top-24 season - in short, more of the same. On the flip side, Sanders has looked the part as a dynamic playmaker with his opportunities. Clearly, the Eagles have reservations about a larger workload considering the level of involvement from Boston Scott and now Kenneth Gainwell as two recent examples.

If a contending team, recent trades of Sanders which are applicable include being dealt for Leonard Fournette. A straight-up swap for Michael Thomas also offers later-season upside but also a win for future seasons if Sanders' lack of upside proves accurate. Finally, an example of a future-minded sell of Sanders would be for a future Round 1 pick (ideally in Superflex), or Sanders-2nd for Brandon Aiyuk-1st.

Cordarrelle Patterson

Why: Patterson has been a fantasy revelation for 2021 with his size-athleticism combination finally fostered into consistent offensive touches for Atlanta. Patterson has a range of positional designations across fantasy platforms, but he is an elite scoring option whether a running back or wide receiver for lineup decisions. Patterson has four straight games of at least 16 PPR points before Atlanta's Week 6 bye. Patterson was available on nearly every dynasty waiver wire as recently as early September, found money for dynasty teams.

ACTION PLAN

Patterson is one of the more unique dynasty assets. Producing like an elite option, Patterson has been nomadic and non-fantasy viable for nearly all of his career and, at 30 years old, is prudently viewed as a 2021-centric asset. Patterson has a clear divide in appeal depending on being a contending or non-contending roster. If contending, Patterson offers enough impact for at least the rest of this season where selling for a 2nd is sub-optimal. The good news is a 1st is possible in the recent dynasty trade market on numerous occasions, a price which would be hard to ignore regardless of team direction and something to strongly explore as a non-contender.

Antonio Brown

Why: Brown is WR7 in PPG this season, including three games of at least 24 points. Brown is one of the best fantasy receivers of the past decade, but at 33 years old will have limited appeal in the global dynasty trade market. The connection with Tom Brady on one of the NFL's best offenses point to his production continuing this season as an impact player for contending teams.

ACTION PLAN

Brown has a wide range of valuations in recent trades, ranging from a 1st plus, down to a 2nd alone. While 33 years old, Brown could be a multi-year play at his best. Non-contending teams need caution from assuming Brown would not be viable in 2022 and a must-sell if falling out of the race. Ask for a 1st, or equivalent, as a seller, and buy for a 2nd if contending and needing-wanting a wide receiver boost.

Chase Claypool

Why: Claypool's 2020 rookie season, along with his lauded size-athleticism combination, make him an obvious breakout candidate as a future WR1. However, 2021 has largely been treading water for Claypool, residing in the WR30s, posting a single touchdown, and attached to a generally underwhelming Pittsburgh offense.

ACTION PLAN

Claypool is the type of profile to accumulate shares when any are available. His career arc comps are overtly positive and still pointing to a future WR1 finish, even if not in 2021. Claypool's appeal is agnostic to being a contender or not, but expect a rise in his low touchdown rate over the rest of the season at a minimum.

Recent trades involving Claypool include:

Final Thoughts

While there is such a thing as overactive dynasty GMs, those who get antsy when a few days pass without making a deal in one of their leagues; Trading just to trade. However, the subset of inactive GMs to their detriment is far more prevalent. The middle handful of weeks during a fantasy season is the optimal time to assess your team direction (more on this in next week's New Reality) and explore the trading market specifically with the teams on the other side of the standings. These can be the most straightforward situations to create win-win deals based on team direction and competitiveness in the current season.
One of the biggest dangers of inactivity in the dynasty trading space is missing opportunities to flip short-term windows of production for players who turn back into pumpkins a few weeks later. Not shopping a player - whether intentional or not - is still making a decision on the asset in itself. Once assessing the utility and personalized value of a player, especially one with a short-term elevated opportunity, look for ideal fits regarding team direction to optimize trade proposals. Finally, have a 'line in the sand' asking price where if the specific league's market will not return at least 'Value X' then they will remain on your roster regardless of team direction.

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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