Introduction
Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.
Week 10 Review
Last Week: -1
Season Total: +6
We tried something by focusing entirely on Touchdown Dance props last week. It was close to being a great week but we came up just short in a couple of spots.
Week 10 Picks
5: Panthers-Cardinals TDs: (-1) We will take the L here, although this one came with a disclaimer to wait until Sunday and see what was going on with injuries. In real life, we would have passed once we saw Kyler Murray ruled out.
4: Vikings-Chargers TDs: (-1) This one probably should have hit. We had touchdowns from Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler but nothing from Adam Thielen. Cook getting stoned at the goal line and a touchdown going to Tyler Conklin instead.
3: Rams-49ers TDs: (-1) This one was nowhere close to hitting with the Rams offense struggling and neither Cooper Kupp or Darrell Henderson finding the end zone.
2: Colts-Jaguars TDs: (-1) We got touchdowns from Jonathan Taylor and James Robinson but came up just short of getting the third we needed.
1: Chiefs-Raiders TDs (+3) Darrel Williams found the end zone on one of his 20 touches and Tyreek Hill scored twice.
5: Split Thursday Ticket
Matt Ryan LESS than 251.5 passing yards
Mac Jones MORE than 245.5 passing yards
- Matt Ryan has thrown for less than 150 passing yards twice in the last three weeks, which coincides with the loss of some of his top weapons.
- Calvin Ridley is out indefinitely. Cordarrelle Patterson is highly questionable for tonight. Hayden Hurst is out. We know that Bill Belichick will be able to scheme out the opponent’s top target (Kyle Pitts). Who is Ryan going to throw it to? Russell Gage, Olamide Zaccheaus, Wayne Gallman, and Co. are not going to dominate individual matchups.
- The Patriots pass defense has been dominant in recent weeks, holding the Browns to 154 yards last week, the Panthers to 172 in Week 9, and the Chargers to 223 the week before.
- Mac Jones has quietly been one of the more efficient passers in the NFL over the past six weeks. He has 7.7 or more yards per attempt in five of six games. At that level of efficiency, he would need 32 attempts to throw for more than 245.5 yards.
.@MutWEEI and @JumboHart are joined by @JimNagy_SB and he thinks it is about time national media starts giving Mac Jones some credit for his play pic.twitter.com/DrCLH8Door
— Mut at Night (@MutAtNightWEEI) November 18, 2021
- The Falcons defense has given up more than 245.5 passing yards in seven-of-nine games this season (78%).
4: KC-Dallas Shootout
More than 2.5 touchdowns combined from Ezekiel Elliott, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce
- Is Patrick Mahomes II back? He threw five touchdowns last week in a road blowout of the Raiders. If this Chiefs offense really is back on track, then you have to love the odds that this one goes over.
"The man distributing the football, @PatrickMahomes, looked like the best version of him we’ve seen this year." - @kent_swanson
— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) November 18, 2021
📠https://t.co/c3BSiVyU4t pic.twitter.com/a2oJQ2a0xn
- We hit on a Chiefs touchdown prop just last week largely due to Tyreek Hill, who caught a pair of touchdowns.
- The Chiefs have one of the more condensed target trees in the league with Hill and Travis Kelce both boasting massive market share.
- Hill has averaged a whopping 12.1 targets per game over his last seven games and averaged 1.0 touchdowns per game over that stretch.
- Kelce is averaging 8.9 targets per game this season and 0.5 touchdowns this season.
- Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 1.0 touchdowns per game this season and has scored multiple touchdowns in 33% of the Cowboys games. If Elliott scores twice in Week 11, you have to feel fantastic about hitting the over here.
One of Ezekiel Elliott's best traits is his goal-line running.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 15, 2021
He's got incredible vision and power near the end zone. pic.twitter.com/hQ2Fyuzywd
- The Footballguys consensus projections are for this trio to score 2.2 touchdowns. This prop should be closer to a 50-50 proposition. This is a spot where we only need to hit over 25% of the time to come out ahead due to the 4X.
- This Vegas total in this game has rocketed up to 56 points, by far the highest of the weekend. There should be plenty of touchdowns to go around.
3: LV-Cin Mismatches
JaMarr Chase MORE than 17.5 fantasy points
Darren Waller MORE than 15.5 fantasy points
- This is a positive correlation play featuring two elite talents in excellent individual matchups.
Bengals OC Brian Callahan on Ja’Marr Chase’s # of targets.
— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) November 15, 2021
"It would be hard to argue you’d want to target him any less than that… He earned the right to garner that target share."
“I don’t seen any concern or alarm… I don’t think Joe relies on him more than anybody else."
- Darren Waller has been on a relative cold streak. He has not scored a touchdown since Week 4. However, he has a great matchup this week.
PFF: No pass-catcher in the NFL (WRs included) is getting open at a higher rate against man coverage than Darren Waller…https://t.co/ylXqJr0Bzg
— Raiders Beat (@RaidersBeat) November 18, 2021
- The Bengals full season defensive numbers do not represent the current reality. In the last two games, the Bengals gave up 75 points combined to the Jets and Browns. The punchless Jets offense passed for 414 yards against this unit.
With Akeem Davis-Gaither headed to IR, it’ll be an opportunity for Markus Bailey to get a lot of looks as a coverage LB.
— Willie Lutz (@willie_lutz) November 9, 2021
Per PFF, Bailey has 23 coverage snaps with a 67.3 grade, allowing for an 86.1 QBR.
Bailey did have a nice TD pass break-up on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/5wkBuOcPXn
- The Bengals recently lost their best coverage linebacker to a season-ending foot injury. Akeem Davis-Gaither would have drawn the assignment to cover Darren Waller but with him out, the Bengals will have a difficult time matching up against Waller.
- JaMarr Chase is also on a relative cold streak, averaging only 11.0 fantasy points per game over his last two outings. However, those relatively modest fantasy totals were probably an outlier given that he saw 22 targets in the two matchups for 1.0 fantasy points per target. Through the first six weeks, Chase averaged 2.9 fantasy points per target. While that number is probably inflated in the other direction, Chase’s playmaking ability and red zone target share should make him a 2.0+ point per target player. He has nine-plus targets in five of his last six games.
2: GB-Min concentration
More than 2.5 touchdowns combined from Davante Adams, Dalvin Cook, and A.J. Dillon
- This is the top proposition on the board this week. We project the above trio for 2.41 touchdowns. Getting 4X on the over of 2.5 touchdowns is fantastic value.
- AJ Dillon has one of the top touchdown projections of the week. With Aaron Jones out, Dillon should play a nearly every-down role for the Packers. The Vikings have allowed 1.1 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.
With Aaron Jones out, AJ Dillon is stepping up big time 😤 pic.twitter.com/CYDq8kWvEC
— Packers Nation (@PackersNationCP) November 18, 2021
- The Packers defense has given up 1.0 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.
- Dalvin Cook is back to full health and has averaged 24 touches per game over his last four games.
- In two games against the Packers last season, Cook scored six touchdowns.
- We have a great chance to get three touchdowns just from this running back duo with elite projections. Davante Adams is just the cherry on top of the sundae. We get an elite running back duo and arguably the best wide receiver in the entire NFL in a matchup where each has had a strong history of success.
With Aaron Jones out, AJ Dillon is stepping up big time 😤 pic.twitter.com/CYDq8kWvEC
— Packers Nation (@PackersNationCP) November 18, 2021
- Adams has owned the Vikings. He has 83 targets over his last seven games against Minnesota. Last season, Adams scored five touchdowns in two games against the Vikings.
1: MNF MORE
Tom Brady MORE than 299.5 passing yards
Daniel Jones MORE than 230.5 passing yards
- We get a positive correlation play here. If this game is at all higher scoring than the 50-point Las Vegas total, there is a great chance for both passers to throw for more passing yards.
- The Footballguys consensus projections have Tom Brady projected for 307 passing yards and Daniel Jones passing for 252 yards. We are getting nice value on the over side for both players, especially Jones.
- Brady has thrown for 945 yards in three primetime games this season despite facing relatively tougher competition.
- The Buccaneers have given up the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL and have faced under 16 rushing attempts per game from opposing backs, lowest in the entire NFL.
- This Giants offense is as healthy as it has been in weeks. Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Evan Engram should all be active and provide Jones with some strong options in the passing game.