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FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 13

Dan Hindery's FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 13
By Dan Hindery, December 3, 2021

FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 13
Photo: USA Today Sports

This should be a fun week given that there are not any obvious shootout spots to target. The games and teams with the highest projected totals are mostly expected to be playing in lopsided affairs. You can still roster your Buccaneers, Colts, and Rams but you probably need the opposing offenses to do perform better than they have in recent weeks for any of the players on the big favorites to approach their ceilings. We are starved for potentially high-scoring games that should be close, which makes the Chargers-Bengals and Washington-Las Vegas matchups more attractive than they might otherwise be.

Quarterback

Positional Overview

This is an interesting week at the quarterback position. We have most of the high-upside players who we typically want to target for tournaments but most have questions. Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray are both injured, which is likely to limit their rushing opportunities. Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford may end up being the chalk despite playing in matchups without much shootout potential. Any other week, they would be obvious fades but we do not have many other strong options to push us off of them. One possibility is to target one of the top second-year passers who are facing each other, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Both have some rushing upside and the game has the potential for fireworks. Plus, don’t forget about Lamar Jackson. Sure, he has struggled lately but it only takes one time for him to get loose for a long touchdown run for you to rocket up the leader board in a tournament.

Top QB Plays

Tom Brady ($8,100), Tampa Bay at Atlanta

This is the safest of the quarterback options. Brady is averaging 309.4 passing yards per game and has multiple touchdowns in all but two games. The big question is how much upside there is in this matchup. Atlanta’s offense has been completely punchless for the last month. If Atlanta is held to 17 or fewer points, how much does Brady even have to do through the air? In the first matchup between these two teams, Atlanta scored 25 and Brady torched the Falcons defense for five touchdowns. Since coming to Tampa Bay, Brady has averaged 3.7 passing touchdowns per game in this matchup and also threw for 390-plus yards in both games last season.

Joe Burrow ($7,400), Cincinnati vs. LA Chargers

The Bengals offense has run through Joe Mixon of late and the Chargers have been better against the pass than the run. These things tend to yo-yo back and forth to some extent. We have seen the Chargers put extra focus on stopping the run to some success in recent weeks. We have also seen their pass defense get picked apart in the short and intermediary zones where Burrow’s accuracy can be deadly. If the Chargers sell out to stop Mixon, there is a path for a very low-owned, inexpensive Burrow to have a big game.

Other QBs to consider:

Lamar Jackson ($8,500), Baltimore at Pittsburgh

With Jackson not playing well and heading on the road to face a Pittsburgh defense that has historically held him in check, he is flying under the radar this week. He is worth a shot in tournaments because his legs give him unique upside. Plus, this is simply not the same Pittsburgh defense we have become accustomed to seeing so we shouldn’t be scared of the jerseys. The Steelers have given up 41 points in back-to-back weeks. Burrow rushed for a touchdown last week and Justin Herbert ran for 90 yards against this defense two weeks ago.

Running Back

Positional Overview

The fact that our top plays list this week is littered with backup running backs who are seriously priced up is a good summary of the season to date. Jamaal Williams, James Conner, and Alexander Mattison are each top options. Keep an eye on Sony Michel too if Darrell Henderson is unable to go. There are some very enticing options at the top of the board, led by Jonathan Taylor. You will want to play him if you can feel comfortable enough with the rest of your lineup to fit in his $10.5K salary. Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and Alexander Mattison are each priced way up but have clear multi-touchdown, tournament-winning upside.

Top RB Plays

Jamaal Williams ($6,500), Detroit vs. Minnesota

This is one of those spots where the backup running back in the lead role may project better than the normal starter would if he was healthy. The reason being the gap between Williams and the remaining backs on the roster like Jermar Jefferson is bigger than the gap was between Swift and Williams. We should see Williams in a near every-down role that will feature him both as a runner and receiver. The Vikings are giving up the ninth-most FanDuel points to opposing running backs on the season.

Eli Mitchell ($7,600), San Francisco at Seattle

Mitchell may be popular this week given his recent production and the top matchup. On the other hand, some may balk at his new pricing level and opt for bigger-name backs who come in much cheaper. This price is more than fair for Mitchell, however. He has 27 carries in each of his last two games and that was with Deebo Samuel culturing at least a handful of carries in both games.

Seattle is allowing 28.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing backs. Only the Jets are worse. This team gave up 146 total yards to Antonio Gibson last week and gave up three total touchdowns to the Washington running backs. With a season that appears to be spiraling away from them, this is a spot where things could get ugly in the second half. If the 49ers can get out to a lead, Mitchell may get all the touches he can handle in the second half.

Antonio Gibson ($6,200), Washington at Las Vegas

Gibson is too cheap given his recent usage and the improvement of the Washington offense. There Raiders are giving up 24.5 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, amongst the highest totals in the league. On a slate without a lot of high-scoring games, this matchup against the Raiders has sneaky shootout potential.

Jonathan Taylor ($10,500), Indianapolis at Houston

The salary is difficult to manage but it is worth cutting some corners elsewhere to make room for Taylor. Over his last eight games, his floor has been 19.0 FanDuel points. We saw his ceiling in Week 11 (53.4 points). All of the projections are enticing and even double-checking against the Las Vegas numbers shows how high expectations are for Taylor in this spot. His anytime touchdown prop is -336. For those who don’t gamble, that means you would have to put down $336 just to win $100 if you wanted to bet on Taylor scoring a touchdown. That is an absurdly high number and indicative of how dominant Taylor has been in the red zone.

The matchup and likely game script are ideal for Taylor to have a ceiling game. In his earlier matchup against Houston, Taylor ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. The Texans are giving up the second-most rushing yards in the NFL.

Other RBs to consider:

James Conner ($7,300), Arizona vs. Chicago

FanDuel’s scoring favors touchdown scorers more than full-PPR sites, which makes Conner an especially appealing option given his touchdown equity as the go-to red-zone option for a strong offense.

Alexander Mattison ($8,700), Minnesota at Detroit

People will balk at this salary for Mattison but we would be very interested in Dalvin Cook at this price against the Lions. As with Williams on the other side of this matchup, the backup may actually project better than the usual starter would because of lack of competition for touches.

Wide Receiver

Positional Overview

This week is unique in that only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson are priced above $7,600. We do not have nearly as many pay-up options available as normal. Most are going to want to stick in the mid-$6k to mid-$7K range, which is loaded with high-ceiling options. The preferred build is to stick to that mid-range for all three spots and hope you pick the correct three names out of the hat from amongst the dozen talented pass catchers in that range who have shown they can get there any given week.

Top WR Options

Terry McLaurin ($7,200), Washington at Las Vegas

As noted above when discussing Gibson, this Washington-Las Vegas game is one of my favorite of the week to target. The Washington offense has been gaining confidence in recent weeks and the team looks poised to make another late run towards an NFC East title. The total has been inching up and the line moving towards Washington all week.

The Raiders defense has been in a bit of a tailspin. Over the last three weeks, they have given up 106 points with the Cowboys, Bengals, and Chiefs each scoring at least 32 points. Las Vegas is fresh off of allowing 100-yard receiving days to both Michael Gallup and Cedrick Wilson and have generally fared poorly against speedy outside wide receivers all season.

Mike Evans ($7,400), Tampa Bay at Atlanta

In tournaments, we always want to focus on upside and on FanDuel, that means multiple touchdowns. Evans already has three multi-touchdown games this season and we know he is capable of exploding for big numbers any given week. His chances are especially good this week given that the Falcons do not have a shutdown outside cornerback for Evans to contend with and the fact he is coming off of a down week with only five targets. Two of Evans’ highest usage games this season came directly after quiet outings the week prior.

All of the Buccaneers' top weapons are in play. While we lean slightly towards Evans in this matchup, Godwin is a fine option as well and we will get to Rob Gronkowski below.

Jaylen Waddle ($6,900), Miami vs. NY Giants

Waddle earned some pre-draft comparisons to Tyreek Hill and we have been seeing why in recent weeks. He has averaged 20.4 FanDuel PPG over his last two and is seeing an extremely healthy share of targets. Over his last seven games, he has been targeted 69 times (9.8 per game). His price has been rising but he is still too cheap given the targets he has been seeing and his explosiveness after the catch.

Other WRs to Consider:

DeVonta Smith ($6,300), Philadelphia at NY Jets

After back-to-back 20 point performances to begin November, Smith has been relatively quiet over the last two weeks. With Jalen Hurts a bit banged up and the Eagles running game starting to falter, this is a spot where the team may need to lean on Smith’s playmaking ability in a great matchup against the Jets.

Diontae Johnson ($7,200), Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore

Another week, another massive workload (14 targets) for Diontae Johnson. Incredibly, he has seen at least 13 targets in five of his last six games. The Ravens defense has been inconsistent this season. While they have shut down some opponents, we have also seen them allow huge games (like JaMarr Chase’s 200-yard explosion).

Tight End

Positional Overview

It is weird to say but it is looking like the guy who retired a few years ago is the top tight end option on the slate. Rob Gronkowski has been a beast in over half of the games he has played this season and has the most upside of any of the tight ends this week. Players like George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, and Dallas Goedert are each worthy options priced just below Gronkowski. For extra cap savings, Gerald Everett and Foster Moreau are each extremely affordable.

Top TE Options

Rob Gronkowski ($7,000), Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Gronkowski has been incredibly productive when available this season. In the five games he has been on the field for more than 10% of the snaps, Gronkowski has scored at least 19 FanDuel points three times (60% of his games). On a relatively ugly tight end slate, that proven upside is worth chasing.

Gerald Everett ($4,900), Seattle vs. San Francisco

The price is simply too cheap for a player who has 21 targets over the last three weeks. While it is hard to feel confident in any of the pieces of the struggling Seahawks offense at this point, Everett is the one who stands out as a great point-per-dollar play. If Russell Wilson is finally able to get his season back on track, we could see Everett as a prime beneficiary.

Other TEs to consider:

Kyle Pitts ($6,200), Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay

The lack of surrounding weapons has allowed teams to focus extra attention on Pitts and he has struggled to produce. Not only is coverage making Pitts’ life more difficult, but he has also compounded the issue with some drops and occasional lazy routes. This is a high-risk play but with potentially high rewards. If the Buccaneers pass offense cruises like it did last time it faced this Atlanta defense, the Falcons will have no choice but to be aggressive and take some chances throwing the ball up for grabs in the vicinity of their top playmaker.

Top Defenses

Miami ($4,000) vs. NY Giants

We have been riding the Dolphins blitz-happy defense of late and see no reason to jump off the bandwagon this week against Mike Glennon and a struggling Giants offense.

Tampa Bay ($4,300) at Atlanta

This is a scary spot for the Atlanta offense. The team doesn’t have much of a run game and is likely to fall behind early. A pass-heavy approach with minimal talent at wide receiver and facing a solid Tampa pass rush could make it a long day for Matt Ryan.

Cincinnati ($3,900) vs. LA Chargers

The Bengals have turned in back-to-back strong defensive performances and are facing a Chargers offense that has started to regress due to some offensive line issues. Inexpensive defenses playing as home favorites are usually a good bet.

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Daily FF FanDuel Tom Brady Joe Burrow Ja'Marr Chase James Conner Dalvin Cook Austin Ekeler Mike Evans Gerald Everett Michael Gallup Antonio Gibson Mike Glennon Chris Godwin Dallas Goedert Rob Gronkowski Darrell Henderson Jr. Justin Herbert Tyreek Hill T.J. Hockenson Jalen Hurts Lamar Jackson Jermar Jefferson Justin Jefferson Diontae Johnson George Kittle Cooper Kupp Alexander Mattison Terry McLaurin Sony Michel Joe Mixon Foster Moreau Kyler Murray Kyle Pitts Ben Roethlisberger Matt Ryan Deebo Samuel DeVonta Smith Matthew Stafford Jonathan Taylor Jaylen Waddle Fred Warner Jamaal Williams Cedrick Wilson Jr. Russell Wilson

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