DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 12

Photo: USA Today Sports

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.

QUARTERBACK

The quarterback position is ugly as it gets. Josh Allen and Dak Prescott play on Thanksgiving. Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes II are on bye. Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson play in primetime. Perhaps some entrants spend up to Tom Brady ($7,600) in the game with the slate’s highest over/under (51.5), but with plenty of high-priced running backs and wide receivers to squeeze under the cap, more are likely to chase Cam Newton’s ($5,600) 26-point debut as Carolina’s starter. As the only other brand name quarterback besides Brady with an implied point total over 24 points, Justin Herbert ($6,600) is also a candidate for stock builds.

Flip the Build: If you’re looking to get different at quarterback, prepare to be uncomfortable when clicking the submit button. Vikings at 49ers has the second-highest implied total on the slate (48.5 points), which may lead to Kirk Cousins ($6,300) and Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,700) appearing in too many lineups. We’re better served to try identifying a game with sleeper shootout potential. Eagles at Giants (O/U 45.5 points) may qualify. Daniel Jones ($5,600) projects particularly well in comparison to his salary and may receive a bump thanks to the departure of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and his vanilla play-calling.

RUNNING BACK

Jonathan Taylor ($9,100) won’t be THE chalk in a tough matchup against Tampa Bay’s rush defense, but it’s safe to assume he won’t go 3% rostered, as he did in last week’s Fantasy Football Millionaire. In addition to Taylor in the top salary tier, Christian McCaffrey ($9,000) is healthy and back to his usual role as a PPR monster. With both Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams available on the slate, however, it’s a safe bet our opponents will bargain shop to fill at least one running back slot. The top candidates in the $5K-$6K range include James Robinson ($6,200), A.J. Dillon ($5,900 - assuming Aaron Jones is held out), and Miles Sanders ($5,100).

Flip the Build: Assuming Taylor, McCaffrey, Kupp, and Adams are the crowd’s top targets at their respective positions, the $8K range at running back will go under-exposed. Dalvin Cook ($8,100), Austin Ekeler (8,400), and Joe Mixon ($7,500) are each capable of finishing as the overall RB1 on any given slate, but none of them should exceed 10-12% rostered. The same can be said of Saquon Barkley ($6,200) in a plus matchup against Philadelphia. It will be interesting to see how the crowd reacts to his middling price point after Barkley's ineffective Week 11 return against the Buccaneers. If he projects for a 10% roster percentage or less, Barkley makes for a solid GPP play.

WIDE RECEIVER

Most lineups that don’t include Cooper Kupp (9,600) will feature Davante Adams ($8,600) and vice versa. When either receiver is paired with a high-end running back, moderate spending at the WR2 and WR3 slots is required. Michael Pittman’s salary ($5,600) has come down in time for a strong matchup against Tampa Bay. Jaylen Waddle ($5,900) is getting more expensive but still hogging targets in Miami. And Brandon Aiyuk ($5,300) finally resembles the player he looked like as a rookie.

Flip the Build: The easiest way to avoid constructing a similar roster to the majority of your opponents is to avoid Kupp and Adams at wide receiver. A more balanced approach might include a moderately popular high-end WR1 (Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, JaMarr Chase, Chris Godwin), with medium spending at WR2 and WR3. Diontae Johnson ($6,600) and D.J. Moore ($6,200) have the upside we’re looking for. Corey Davis ($4,800) is flying below the radar with the return of Zach Wilson to New York’s lineup. There should also be some production to spread around for Atlanta’s wide receivers against Jacksonville. Russell Gage ($5,100) is the best bet of the bunch.

TIGHT END

Common lineups will look to save at the tight end position, as usual, which is made easier by the absence of Travis Kelce and Darren Waller on the slate. If the crowd can’t get up to Dallas Goedert ($4,800), expect to see plenty of lineups with Rob Gronkowski ($4,400), Pat Freiermuth ($4,300), and Dan Arnold ($4,000).

Flip the Build: It would be nice to just fire the tight end position into the sun, but alas, DraftKings requires we roster one. Kyle Pitts ($6,100) will be somewhat popular as a standalone play, but his salary is too steep for chalky builds. A matchup against the Jaguars’ pass defense can help unlock the ceiling we haven’t seen from Pitts since Week 7.

CAN YOU TRUST THE CHALK?

The term chalk in sports betting refers to the heavily favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is an important part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineups become positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a player the crowd loves meets his lofty expectations and you choose to avoid him, your lineups can quickly get buried.

If you are entering multiple lineups, deciding whether to play or pass on chalky players is non-binary. The overall roster percentage of your lineup, how the player correlates to the rest of the lineup, and the size of the tournament you are entering all provide needed context.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

Cam Newton (@MIA, $5,600, 10% rostered)
Newton was in fine form in his 2021 starting debut for the Panthers, completing 77% of his pass attempts, throwing for two scores, and rushing for one more. But we have to consider the stellar performance came against the Football Team, whose defense has allowed the most fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks in 2021 and was playing its first game without their stud defensive end, Chase Young. This week’s matchup against the Dolphins is also favorable. Miami’s defense just got carved up by Joe Flacco (291-2-0) of all people. Their defense is, however, capable of getting up for home games, as evidenced by the Dolphins’ Week 10 win over Baltimore. In a game that could easily turn into a slog with a final score of 10-3 in either team’s favor, the best move in tournaments is to pass on Newton.

Christian McCaffrey (@MIA, $9,000, 18% rostered)
McCaffrey is another reason to consider fading Newton. If the Carolina at Miami game does finish over its paltry 42-point implied total, McCaffrey’s ~95% share of the team’s backfield touches could result in multiple touchdowns. Should the game finish without much scoring, McCaffrey remains capable of scoring 25+ DraftKings points without finding the end zone, as he did in Week 10 vs. Arizona (161 total yards, 10 receptions). McCaffrey’s usage over the last two games proves he is over the injuries that plagued him during the early part of the season, and he’s available at $900 less than his Week 2 salary. Take the discount in at least 25% of your lineups if you are muti-entering.

Michael Pittman (vs. TB, $5,600, 16% rostered)
Pittman might not reach the same heights of popularity as Kupp, Adams, and Godwin but his salary (down $500 after a disappointing Week 11) is useful to help fit those other guys in. In theory, the easier way to score against Tampa Bay is through the air rather than on the ground. But as we saw last week in Buffalo, Jonathan Taylor is immune to difficult matchups. The running game is clearly clicking in Indianapolis and the return of TY. Hilton shaves a target or two off Pittman’s projection. While he’s far from a bad play, Pittman is the type of wide receiver we generally want to avoid in tournaments. He’ll appear in more lineups than his ceiling warrants. He is not four times more likely to appear in a first-place lineup than someone like Mike Williams ($5,700), which is what his projected roster percentage implies.

LEVERAGE PLAYS

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their roster rate and scoring projections are misaligned with the probability they can help you to a first-place finish. Play them at a higher rate than the field when multi-entering and consider them as pivot options off similarly-priced chalk plays if the overall roster percentage of your lineup is too high.

Joe Mixon (vs. PIT, $7,500, 12% rostered)
Mixon will be somewhat popular coming off an impressive 30-123-2 rushing line against the Raiders. He’s now scored at least 25 DraftKings points in four out of his last five games but always seems to check in at a middling percent rostered. This week, he’ll be shaded by Taylor and McCaffrey in the top salary tier, as well as a perceived difficult matchup against the Steelers. Pittsburgh, however, has quietly been terrible stopping the run in recent weeks. Since Week 5, the Steelers have allowed 35% more PPR fantasy points to enemy running backs than league average. Continue to play Mixon ahead of the field for as long as his salary remains below $8K. He provides an added advantage this week on Burrow-Chase stacks, which should be fairly common.

Elijah Mitchell (5,400) or Jeff Wilson ($5,200) vs. MIN, 8% rostered
The weakness of Minnesota’s defense is undoubtedly in the secondary. But the crowd is well aware of this fact, which will inflate the roster percentages of Deebo Samuel (justified) and Brandon Aiyuk (not as much). With Miles Sanders getting the most love from the crowd in the $5K range at running back, whoever starts for San Francisco this week should add leverage to your lineups. As of this writing, Mitchell had returned to practice, but it is still unclear if he’ll return from surgery on his broken finger. If he plays, Mitchell is one of the best tournament plays on the slate. If he needs to sit another week, don’t be afraid to go back to Wilson, who busted as chalk in Week 11. Had Jimmy Garoppolo not missed him for an easy touchdown last week, no one would be complaining about Wilson’s subpar showing against the Jaguars.

Corey Davis (@HOU, $4,800, 8% rostered)
Elijah Moore enters this game on a heater and is therefore likely to be the first Jets receiver the crowd clicks on in a matchup against the Texans’ dismal pass defense. But Moore profiles as an awful tournament play this week. His salary increased by $700 from last week and Moore's recent huge performances came with backup quarterbacks in the lineup. With Zach Wilson active, Davis averaged seven targets per game and posted a pair of 24+ point performances on DraftKings. Davis and Moore have similar median projections and ceilings. The difference is $800 in cap space, which matters a lot on this slate.

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

These players are flying below the crowd’s collective radar and will therefore give you the greatest leverage on your opponents if they outperform expectations. Depending on the field size, it will usually take at least one or two players from this tier for your lineup to finish in the top one percent of GPP entries.

Keep in mind, however, that the path to success for these players is somewhat limited, or else they wouldn’t be contrarian. Using more than two together in the same lineup will come at the expense of maximizing projected fantasy points. And if you’re multi-entering, it doesn’t take much exposure for these players to gain you an edge on the field. A 5% rostered player only needs to appear in two out of 10 lineups to give you four times more exposure than your opponents.

Darrell Henderson (@ GB, $5,800, 6% rostered)
Henderson was game-scripted out of lopsided losses to the Titans and 49ers in the Rams’ last two games before their Week 11 bye. It feels safe to assume he’s off the crowd’s radar in a road game at Lambeau Field. While the Packers have shored up their rush defense this season, it’s not an impossible matchup for Henderson and the Rams’ offensive line in a game that should feature conservative play calling on both sides. Despite his lack of recent success in the box scores, Henderson is still dominating snaps and routes run in LA’s backfield. A 25-point game would be an unwelcome development for entrants who eat the Kupp chalk.

Jerry Jeudy (vs. LAC, $5,500, 7% rostered)
The ankle injury that kept Jeudy out of the lineup from Weeks 2-7 looked brutal. It’s fair to assume he’ll come out of Denver’s bye week as healthy as he’s been since Week 1, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects against LA. Despite knocking off the rust, Jeudy was able to command target shares of 32% and 26% in Weeks 9 and 10, respectively. The Chargers at Broncos game is expected to be close (LA -2.5) and relatively high-scoring (O/U 48). You’ll want exposure to this game, and a healthy Jeudy might be ready to offer more than just a safe target floor.

Evan Engram (vs. PHI, $3,800, 4% rostered)
If Daniel Jones benefits from the ouster of Jason Garrett, Engram is likely to come along for the ride. While he’s generally avoided injuries and been an every-down player for the Giants this year, Engram -- essentially a plus-size wide receiver -- was miscast by Garrett as an ordinary, plodding tight end. Assuming he’s given the ability to run some downfield routes for a change, Engram is in a great spot against Philadelphia. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to enemy tight ends this season, including a staggering 99% more than league average over the last five weeks. If Engram’s roster percentage stays below 5%, consider rostering him at a rate equal to four times the field.

Follow @PhilFBG