Cracking FanDuel Week 13

Photo: USA Today Sports

Sunday Morning Update

Check back each Sunday Morning around 11:45 EST for any updates based on the actives/inactives and Sunday news. Note, we will always put something on here even if it is as simple as “no update”.

There will likely only be one update this morning. However, I do post on Twitter every time there is an update as well as answer questions/interact with subscribers so if you aren't following, give it a shot.

https://twitter.com/devinknottsfbg

Sunday Morning Update #1

The big news overnight is that the Rams are not optimistic that Darrell Henderson will play this week. This puts Sony Michel into a premiere running back spot this week as the Rams are double digit favorites and the highest projected scoring team this week. At $5,300, he is going to shoot up to one of the top plays on this slate. Looking at where to upgrade the lineup, the one guy that I keep coming back to is Justin Jefferson and the damage that elite wide receivers have done to this Lions defense. It is a bit risky, as Jefferson is not going to be a highly rostered player this week, but much like Joe Mixon last week taking a stand on a player you feel great about can often lead to great results.

Other changes to the lineup:

Upgrading Foster Moreau to George Kittle. Moreau can very easily be a trap this week as while he should see an increase in workload due to Darren Waller being out, he simply is not that great of a player. Kittle has struggled, but has the most upside of any tight end on this slate with the exception of maybe Rob Gronkowski. Finally, to make the lineups work, I had to downgrade from Miami to Washington's defense. Admittedly, I don't love this move, but the only other option was to downgrade Diontae Johnson and with his target workload (13 targets in each of his last three games), he just felt safer than Hunter Renfrow this week.

Primary Lineup

• QB Tom Brady, TB, $8,100
• RB Jamaal Williams, DET, $6,500
• RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $6,200
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,000
• WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, $7,200
• WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $8,000
• TE George Kittle, SF, $6,300
• Flex RB Sony Michel, LAR, $5,300
• TD Washington, $3,400

Late Swap If Darrell Henderson is active-

All signs are appearing that Henderson will be out, but putting a lineup in here in case Henderson somehow does play this week. I don't love this as much as the A.J. Dillon late swap from last week, so let's hope Henderson doesn't play which appears to be the case.

• QB Tom Brady, TB, $8,100
• RB Jamaal Williams, DET, $6,500
• RB Antonio Gibson, WAS, $6,200
• WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $9,000
• WR Van Jefferson, LAR, $5,800
• WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $8,000
• TE Fabian Moreau, LV, $5,000
• Flex RB Eli Mitchell, SF, $7,600
• TD Washington, $3,400

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

Low scoring week, only three teams make the cutoff of situations that standout this week.

• Tampa Bay (at Atlanta) 30.75 points
• LA Rams (vs Jacksonville) 30.5 points
• Indianapolis (at Houston) 27.25 points
• Minnesota (at Detroit) 27 points

Week 12 Recap

This is quickly turning into the best season of this article as last week was another winning week. The primary cash lineup put up 116.1 points in a very low scoring week across the industry.

What went right:

• Taking Joe Mixon essentially sealed the deal from the start this week as getting a low rostered running back who puts up 30 points made for an easy week. Mixon had 165 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Bengals crushed the Steelers.
• Deebo Samuel once again paid off even though he was despite getting hurt and leaving the game early. Samuel primarily was a running back this past week as he ran for 66 yards and found the end zone twice on this slate.
• Cincinnati’s defense looked great against Pittsburgh allowing just 10 points and at $3,300 were a great way to save money last week.

What went wrong:

• Dan Arnold got hurt early in this game, so even though his performance was lacking, Dallas Goedert who was the other cheap tight end that people played actually was outscored by Arnold as Goedert had 1 catch for 0 yards.
• Miles Sanders was a tough one as he looked great with 64 yards on just 9 carries, but did leave for a portion of this game with an ankle injury which gave more volume to Boston Scott. Disappointing result in what could have been a big performance for Sanders. It does appear that this will continue to be a timeshare moving forward.

INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?

A significant amount of injuries this week, which will make the Sunday Morning Update critical.

• Dalvin Cook will miss this week with a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, FanDuel was wise this week as they’ve seen Alexander Mattison become mega chalk in weeks where Cook missed. Mattison is very expensive this week at $8,700.
• DAndre Swift will miss this game with a shoulder injury which will open up an opportunity for Jamaal Williams. At just $6,500, Williams is not the most exciting running back on this slate as his skillset is somewhat limited, but he is a solid value play especially if he can find the end zone.
• The Giants passing game is all sort of banged up. Mike Glennon will start for Daniel Jones and it looks like he will be without Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, and John Ross leaving only Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton as trustable wide receivers. On other sites, where pricing is tighter, it may make sense to look at potentially going down to Glennon simply because he should throw for 200 yards and a touchdown, but on FanDuel it’s best to just avoid this situation altogether.
• A big one that we are monitoring is Boston Scott who is questionable with an illness. If he’s unable to go, Jordan Howard is already out for this game, so Miles Sanders would elevate into a very good play this week against the Jets. Jalen Hurts is also questionable which could lead to more running opportunities for these running backs.
• Darren Waller is out leaving Foster Moreau as the starting tight end for Las Vegas. Moreau is a decent value play this week, albeit much better on other sites.
• Deebo Samuel will miss this week which opens up significant opportunities for the 49ers. The person who gains the most out of this situation is Elijah Mitchell as Samuel the last two weeks has really served as a running back as he only had two receptions over his last two games. The passing game could also see an uptick as they will throw the ball more than they have the last few weeks which could open up opportunities for George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk.

Fairly Easy Week This Week

We are going to approach this week in a little bit different of a format where we have rankings for each of the positions as well some commentary next to each of the players. Let me know what you think (positive or negative) about this as we’re trying out different ways to show some of the analysis. It very well could be a one-time format change and we reverse back to the old format next week, but wanted to see about having actual rankings on this as you build your lineup.

This week seems to be a fairly easy build. Yes, you could go with Jonathan Taylor at $10,500 and just rely on him to carry your team, but the lack of low-end options really is going to hurt that lineup this week. There are a number of great values this week at the running back position, so most people will take three mid-tier running backs and then spend up at the wide receiver and quarterback positions.