We’re entering the holiday season, which means the fantasy playoffs are around the corner. Hopefully, your squad is still fighting with a shot to make it to the dance. However, the NFL gave us another chaotic product in Week 11 for us to digest. We’ve got less time to react with the added games on Thursday, so let’s get to my lessons learned from this past week. Happy Thanksgiving!
Quarterback: Josh Allen, Bills
Week 11 Results: (Projected) 29.8, (Actual) 18.2
Josh Allen has been worth his draft cost through Week 11. He’s the QB3 and even ahead of Patrick Mahomes II in total points scored. But Allen hasn’t looked like the QB3, and the entire offense hasn’t made sense after baffling losses to the Jaguars and Colts. He’s finished outside of the Top 12 in two of the last three weeks and has a rough schedule ahead. There might be some growing pains, but he’s worth trusting as we get closer to the fantasy playoffs.
Advice Moving Forward:
Josh Allen is still a QB1 moving forward. However, adjustments to the Bills’ offense may cause more volatility in his week-to-week production.
It’s fair to be concerned about Allen after the last few weeks. But try finding a suitable replacement for him. The Bills are still top-5 in pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Allen is top-5 in total rushing and red-zone rushing attempts. However, we should try and understand what’s happening to Buffalo’s offense. Let’s start with how defenses are attacking them.
Like Patrick Mahomes II, teams have primarily used zone coverage to limit Allen. Defenses can keep the wide receivers in check while still holding Allen’s rushing in check. But theoretically, more defenders in coverage would leave fewer upfront resulting in less pressure. Not so fast. Allen was 9th in pressure rate through the first two months of the season. The offensive line has improved over the last two weeks, but the defensive scheme isn’t the only issue. Another part is the offense itself.
Buffalo’s passing rate, and Allen’s improvement as a passer, put them on the map in 2020. As I mentioned before, they’re top-5 in PROE. And, their pass-happy nature extends into their playcalling on first down. Allen has dropped back to pass 17% more than expected on a fresh set of downs. However, his early misfires have led to stalled drives and have directly impacted his fantasy point total, as the chart indicates a near-dependent relationship between the two.
Intuitively, it makes sense. An incomplete pass leaves you with 2nd-and-10, a short attempt on second down sets you up with a manageable third down, and your third-down efficiency determines your fate. It isn’t easy to meet expectations when attempting 9.3 aDOT passes on first down and not connecting. Allen was first in EPA per play on these attempts last season. He’s 12th so far in 2021.
But like our discussion about Mahomes back in Week 8, good offenses know how to adjust. Buffalo may not have the most substantial ancillary personnel, but they can adapt. Mahomes did so by incorporating his running backs into the passing game. Allen has done the same, which has had some influence on his weekly fantasy rank, but it’s been sporadic.
I’m not suggesting throwing more to Devin Singletary, or Matt Breida will fix the Bills, but we should expect a shift in their scheme. They need to bait safeties into moving down in coverage. An efficient running game can help (see: Kansas City running backs). Incorporating shorter passes can also work. The best-case scenario is more designed runs for Allen, but it’s all unknown.
However, what is known is that Buffalo has two matchups against New England and a game against Tampa Bay over the next five weeks. The Bills have found their limitations and need a Plan B to secure their spot in the playoffs. Allen should remain in the top-12 conversation, but watch for tweaks to their offense as we head into the playoffs.
Running Back: Austin Ekeler, Chargers
Week 10 Results: (Projected) 20.0, (Actual) 41.5
Ekeler’s workload was the subject of much debate over the offseason. The Chargers drafted Joshua Kelley last season, retained Justin Jackson, and acquired Larry Rountree this year (sixth round). We hoped the moves or lack thereof were to build depth, and Ekeler’s role was safe. It was hard to believe that as the season got underway. But now, Ekeler is the RB2 for the season and nearly matched Jonathan Taylor in touchdowns on Sunday. I took a closer look at his usage since Week 1 to see how sustainable his opportunity might be moving forward.
Advice Moving Forward:
Ekeler is moving into bell-cow territory with a favorable schedule heading into the playoffs. If you have a contending roster, make an offer for him. If you’re rostering him, you have a top-3 running back on your squad.
Ekeler’s zero-target game in Week 1 sent alarm bells through the fantasy community. He had four red-zone touches, but it appeared Brandon Staley sacrificed Ekeler’s passing game usage for work at the goal line. His target share stabilized at 11.8%, while his workload inside the 10-yard line remained. Additionally, it’s improved over the last month.
Ekeler is up to a career-high 17 attempts from inside an opponent's 10-yard line. He’s already passed another personal best with 13 total touchdowns this season, and his opportunity has only increased. He’s averaging 6.5 targets per game to go with his 76.4% touch share. And, if you need any more confidence in his importance to the team, let’s look at his targets per route run (TPRR).
For those unfamiliar with TPRR, I encourage you to look into the work done by Chase Stuart, Danny Tuccitto, and Ben Gretch. In simplest terms, it removes the noise from the popularized yards per route run metric. Targets are earned and quantify intent from a quarterback. Passers targeting their pass-catchers at a high rate of their routes run emphasizes high efficiency between the quarterback and receiver. For example, Cooper Kupp has a 30.6% TPRR this season.
Ekeler nearly matching Keenan Allen in TPRR throughout the season is significant. It separates any narratives from Ekeler’s role. Game script or isn’t a factor as the Chargers have been in almost every game environment. And, again, targets are earned.
Ekeler’s answered our offseason questions. He’s still a significant piece of the Chargers’ passing attack while getting touches when the team is in scoring position. It’s the workload of a bell-cow running back. And, with matchups against Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Houston before and during the fantasy playoffs, Ekeler is a top-3 option at his position.
Wide Receiver: Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
Week 10 Results: (Projected) 10.8, (Actual) 21.5
Brandon Aiyuk has been somewhat consistent over the last month. He’s been on the field for 90% or more of the team’s snaps, averaged over six targets per game, and scored twice. It was against Jacksonville, but the second-year wide receiver just posted a season-high 21.5 fantasy points while leading the 49ers in targets. He might be tough to trust after a rough start to the season, but I’m optimistic about his short-term future.
Advice Moving Forward:
Aiyuk moves into the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 discussion. Elijah Mitchell’s return will likely increase the 49ers’ rushing production at the expense of their passing attack. However, Aiyuk’s increase in opportunity and upcoming should buoy his fantasy production.
An offseason injury.
Not meeting the expectations of the GM.
Playing with the veteran quarterback, then the rookie, and then the veteran again.
Aiyuk has been through it all in ten games. It was fun watching Deebo Samuel ascend to top-5 level production, but fans were looking for the sophomore receiver. His snaps were inconsistent, along with his opportunity to start the season. However, both have corrected themselves as the 49ers have become a force in the NFC West.
Since the Week 6 bye, Aiyuk has jumped to a 19.9% target share with a 25.9% average share of the team’s air yards. The opportunity and intent from Jimmy Garoppolo to keep Aiyuk involved is quite the turnaround from the first month of the season. Aiyuk also has three red-zone targets over the last four weeks after receiving three over the first six games. But, looking past his base stats, his efficiency tells an even better story.
I reviewed TPRR in my review of Ekeler’s rise this season. In short, it’s an efficiency metric that focuses on the idea that targets are earned. A 20.0% TPRR is a general threshold for good wide receivers, but I’m not focused on his rate now. I’m more interested in his rate relative to Samuel’s.
We would expect to see a gap between the two at the start of the season. Samuel has been Kupp-like through Week 11, whether through rushing or leading all players in yards after the catch. Aiyuk matching Samuel in TPRR over the last month is a positive sign for the sophomore moving forward as it highlights Aiyuk's ability to earn targets along with Garoppolo's intent to keep him involved when Aiyuk is on the field.
However, San Francisco is 30th in PROE, and Elijah Mitchell will return soon. Both will affect Aiyuk as Mitchell is a more productive runner than Jeff Wilson, and Samuel will return to his primary receiving role. Regardless, the offense is seventh in EPA per play, and their upcoming schedule (MIN, SEA, CIN, and ATL) is tough to ignore. Fantasy managers should consider Aiyuk as a low-end WR2 while monitoring his situation as the 49ers’ personnel gets healthier.
