Player value in dynasty football reminds me of watching ocean waves. They ebb and flow, always in a state of flux. Competitive dynasty players anticipate these movements before they happen and act by picking up, buying, or selling players as the situation demands. Dynasty general managers have previously been at the mercy of regular waiver segments to assist in dynasty pickups, but these fail to account for the long-term view necessary to dynasty success. This weekly column will focus on identifying assets that will help dynasty teams build for the future, as well as players that may plug a hole at a position of need on an otherwise strong squad.
Welcome to the week one edition of Waivers of the Future! Many of you are making cuts and finalizing your roster in preparation for the regular season. Whether you are a contending or rebuilding team, this report will endeavor to spark some ideas about whom you might want to claim.
RIDE THE WAVE
(These are plug-and-play options who might patch a hole on your team in the short-term.)
QUARTERBACK
Contending 5%, Rebuilding 1%| Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA- Fitzpatrick is clearly a caretaker quarterback that will be holding down the fort while the Dolphins develop Tua Tagovailoa. He is also one of the most prolific backups in the league, which is why he has been successful for so long. He is capable of multiple touchdown outings, but he can also throw interceptions with his daring and aggressive style of play. Fitzpatrick matches up against the Patriots in week one. That may sound like a scary matchup, but the Patriots have lost a slew of defensive starters in the offseason to free agency and COVID opt-outs, so it will not be nearly as bad as it sounds. The week two tilt against the Bills will be a much tougher test.
Contending 3%, Rebuilding 1%| Tyrod Taylor, LAC- It is not Justin Herbert's time just yet. Tyrod Taylor will be given the mandate of playing it safe, not turning over the football, and managing the game while the Chargers win close games using their stingy defense. Taylor does have rushing ability, which will give him a little more upside than some of the other quarterbacks on this list. The Bengals should be a matchup in which the Chargers have a little bit more offensive success, but the Chiefs in week two could be more of a problem for Taylor and Co.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Dwayne Haskins, WAS- Haskins has hit the waiver wire in some dynasty leagues after tumultuous performances in his rookie year. Washington has named Haskins the starter and will give him the chance to show the new regime he is worthy of being the future of the franchise. While the writer is skeptical that Haskins will be a starter beyond this year, there is no shame in using Haskins in the same manner that the Washington Football Team is using him-- as a stopgap option. It is going to be difficult to produce with the limited cast around him and the week one matchup with the Eagles is not ideal. He will play the Cardinals in week two, however, and that should be an easier contest for the young quarterback.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Mitchell Trubisky, CHI- Trubisky might have hit your waiver wire after Foles was traded for earlier this year. He won the starting job over Nick Foles in Chicago’s camp. That may not be saying much, considering that camp reports indicated neither quarterback stood out. Though he has demonstrated limited processing capacity, Trubisky does have quality weapons such as Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller who can help elevate his play. The Lions could be a tough draw in week one, but the Giants in week two are an ideal matchup for any quarterback.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Taysom Hill, NO- Hill is not the starter, but he earns high leverage work in the red zone as a versatile wrinkle in the offense. He is a safe bet to give you at least some points each week and has one-to-three touchdown upside in any given week. That is preferable to taking a zero at the position.
If you play in a superflex or are desperately in need of a quarterback who might earn starting work in future weeks if the starter struggles…
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Marcus Mariota, LVR
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Nick Foles, CHI
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Case Keenum, CLE
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Kyle Allen, WAS
All of these guys are generally available on the waiver wire and reside behind starters who have tenuous holds on their jobs. The writer prioritized them by potential fantasy impact should they relieve the starter of their respective team. Each has flaws and weaknesses of their own - but again, when desperate for a quarterback to fill a lineup spot, options are limited.
RUNNING BACK
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Chris Thompson JAX- The near Devonta Freeman signing takes some of the shine off Chris Thompson in that it means the team isn't sold on him to carry the load. However, it can be argued that Thompson is still superior in pass-catching ability and will be used in that capacity for the team, no matter who they end up signing. The Colts and Titans in their first two matchups are tough draws.
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Malcolm Brown, LAR- With Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson in the fold, fantasy general managers are neglecting Brown. Brown is the most likely of the three to reprise the role of short-yardage grinder and goal-line back. Brown is not flashy or as explosive as Akers and Henderson have the potential to be, but he could easily lead this three-way committee in yardage and touchdowns by the end of the year. Admittedly, the Cowboys and Eagles matchups will be tough against the run, so he may not be the ideal candidate to plug and play in the first two weeks unless you have no choice.
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Adrian Peterson, DET- It did not take long after getting cut from the Washington Football Team for Peterson to find a new home. What is difficult about this situation is trying to figure out how Detroit will use its three backs. It is the same problem that general managers and analysts deal with on a weekly basis when trying to project New England’s backfield. Peterson is probably still the best of their backs in terms of the power element of their game. Look for him to be used in short-yardage and goal-to-go situations, which will make him more valuable in standard formats. The Bears and Packers, whom the Lions will face in the first two weeks, are not stout units in terms of stopping the run.
Contending 1%, Rebuilding 1%| Bryce Love, Peyton Barber, and J.D. McKissic, WAS- This situation is confusing because it appears to be a three-way committee. Add in the fact that Antonio Gibson may take some snaps per game at running back and it is a mess trying to predict how things will shake out. Bryce Love and J.D. McKissic are the smaller pass catchers of the bunch, but predicting which, if either, will get the majority of passing down work is problematic. Peyton Barber is the best fit for between-the-tackles running, so he is your target in standard leagues. All three are best avoided in your lineup in week one when Washington plays Philadelphia. More clarity may exist for week two when the club gets an easier matchup against the Cardinals.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Ryan Nall, CHI- There is a chance that if David Montgomery is not healed from his groin injury, Nall could absorb his between-the-tackles workload while Tarik Cohen does his work as a satellite back. Nall is a very no-nonsense, north-to-south runner, but he has a great deal of power to his game. The Lions can probably manage to limit him in week one, but if the Montgomery injury persists, Nall could be a nice fill-in option against the Giants in week two.
WIDE RECEIVER
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Olabisi Johnson, MIN- Justin Jefferson does not appear ready to make the leap to starter just yet, so Olabisi Johnson will occupy that role for now. The Vikings have a low-volume passing offense and Johnson is likely the fourth pass-catching option in that attack. Johnson has proven to be consistent, if not spectacular. The first two teams on the docket, the Packers and Colts, have decent secondaries, so Johnson is not a priority choice for fill-in duty during the first two weeks.
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Adam Humphries, TEN- Humphries spent much of last year injured, but really came on for Tennessee late in the year. They are a run-first team, but if their pass offense takes a step forward this year, Humphries could be fantasy relevant as a spot starter for dynasty teams. This is especially true in leagues in which first down conversations are rewarded because Humphries excels at moving the chains. Tennessee has Denver and Jacksonville in the first two weeks, which are two very soft passing matchups.
TIGHT END
Contending and Rebuilding, 1-5%| Dan Arnold, ARI- Kyler Murray and Arnold seemed to have an instant connection. When he was added, he scored twice in three games for Arizona. Red zone offense was a problem for the Cardinals in 2019 and Arizona may have inadvertently discovered that the big-bodied Arnold could be one of the remedies. Arizona has not boasted a fantasy-relevant tight end in years, but Arnold might become the first one in ages as the Arizona offense morphs into a higher octane unit.
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Robert Tonyan Jr, GB- Tonyan has reportedly won the starting job in Green Bay over Jace Sternberger. While the Packers passing offense is limited under Coach LaFleur, there are few competent receivers in this offense, so tight ends will be relied on at a higher frequency than they might otherwise be to fill the target void.
CHANGING TIDES
(Pre-emptive running back options that will have value if the starter goes down and that are not as likely to be owned. The writer sees them more as short-term options. For those that have long-term appeal, please see the other sections of this report.)
The waiver wire for running backs in dynasty leagues is, as usual, razor-thin. Here are some backups that are widely available in most leagues that have a big upside if their starter is injured.
Contending and Rebuilding 1-5%| Darrell Williams and Darwin Thompson, KC- Both backs are likely to get used this year anyway. However, if Clyde Edwards-Helaire were to get dinged, Williams and Thompson would get the lion’s share of the work in an offense in which they would be the lowest priority for defenders that are stretched defending the likes of Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, and Sammy Watkins. Both are worth holding if you have the roster space to spare.
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Benny Snell, PIT- The writer likes Kerrith White better, but the Steelers seem enamored with Snell, whom they drafted last year. There has been talk that Snell has re-shaped his body in the offseason and is much faster than what he showed in his rookie year. That had better be the case because he looked more like Benny Snail in his first campaign. While skeptical that Snell has become leaps and bounds better, the writer acknowledges that he is currently the direct backup to James Conner, who has nor stayed particularly healthy throughout his short career. There could be a big payoff to general managers who take a chance on rostering Snell with the idea that Conner once again might get dinged up and force Pittsburgh to turn to Snell to carry the football.
Contending 1-5%, Rebuilding 1%| Boston Scott, NO- Scott played well down the stretch last year when injuries to Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard cleared the way for him. This year, he has earned the direct backup role to Sanders and could be extremely valuable to fantasy general managers if a Sanders injury strikes again.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Giovani Bernard, CIN- Joe Mixon is locked up to a shiny new contract, but he has not proven to be the most durable back. That could pay off massively for Giovani Bernard, who will have the benefit of working in an offense that will be reinvigorated by Joe Burrow. Bernard has long been a player with the ability to do more, but the Bengals have been content to use him in an ancillary role. If he were to get that chance and the offense was actually functional, it could be very profitable for general managers who used an open roster spot on this lottery ticket.
These are a few free-agent running backs that are waiting for a call from a needy team. These players could provide fill-in value depending on their landing spot. If you have roster space, they may be worth holding on to in anticipation of a future opportunity. They are prioritized by how likely the writer believes it is that they will be given a shot to compete on a new team.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Devonta Freeman
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Lamar Miller
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Bilal Powell
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Rod Smith
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Spencer Ware
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Kenneth Dixon
THE SPLASH
(Could be available in 30 or fewer roster spot leagues.)
QUARTERBACK
None this week. Please see other quarterback sections of this report for pickup ideas.
RUNNING BACK
None this week. Please see other running back sections of this report for pickup ideas.
WIDE RECEIVER
Contending and Rebuilding 10-15%| Auden Tate, CIN- A.J. Green cannot seem to stay healthy and that could lead to a lot of work for Tate alongside Tyler Boyd. Tate had, by all accounts, one of the more impressive training camps of any Bengal. He has shown flashes of what he can do as a big-bodied red zone threat in the past.
Contending and Rebuilding 5-10%| Marquez Valdes-Scantling- Allen Lazard established himself as the second wide receiver, but that designation is not set in stone. Before injuries, Valdes-Scantling was considered an up-and-comer. Valdes-Scantling had a tremendous camp and seems to be ready to give Lazard a run for his money.
Contending and Rebuilding 1-5%| Dante Pettis, SF- Pettis was not putting in the work he needed to last year and received tough love from his coach. It appears he has taken that coaching to heart and had a camp in which he flashed vast improvement. With Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk banged up, the door is open for Pettis to seize a significant role in the passing offense.
Contending 1%, Rebuilding 1%| Mohamed Sanu, FA- Sanu was cut from the Patriots, but that does not mean he is a bad player. The Patriots had so much redundancy at the position and wanted to save cap room. Look for Sanu to land somewhere he has had prior experience or is a good scheme fit, such as Atlanta or San Francisco.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Keelan Cole, JAX- Cole has flashed on and off throughout his career. In part, that is due to the volatile nature of his quarterback play. It is very possible that as Jacksonville continues to purge their roster that we see Cole end up with another team. Even if he does not, Jacksonville is likely to have to pass more this season in garbage time, which could create opportunities for Cole to produce yet again.
TIGHT END
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Ryan Griffin, NYJ- As much time as Chris Herndon has missed due to injury, he might as well be named Chris Hernia. While Griffin also is not the poster child for robust health, he is experienced and basically free on all but the deepest of waiver wires. Sam Darnold developed a great rapport with Griffin last year before Griffin’s season-ending injury in December. If that carries over and Herndon gets dinged again, that will be a recipe for fantasy success.
Contending and Rebuilding 1%| Vance McDonald, PIT- McDonald is oft-injured and the Steelers signed Eric Ebron in the offseason. Those two things are the reason McDonald has been tossed back to the waiver wire in dynasty leagues. We should remember that Eric Ebron also has a checkered past when it comes to injury. There is also another path for McDonald to become relevant again. If the Steelers modernize their offense and run more two-tight end sets, McDonald and Ebron could both be equally as valuable. One can pay a fraction of the price of Ebron to roster McDonald and see if either of these scenarios play out.
THE DEEP
(Could be available in 30-or-more roster spot leagues or leagues with large taxi squads.)
QUARTERBACK
Watch List| Jake Fromm, BUF- Fromm is not being rostered nearly enough in dynasty leagues considering Josh Allen’s struggles as a passer. Fromm will have to work his way up the depth chart, but is the most promising of all three quarterbacks the Bills have in terms of decision-making and accuracy.
Watch List| Josh Rosen, TB- Rosen has bounced around quite a bit in his short career, but he is still one of the more talented backup quarterback prospects in the league. He is signed to the Tampa Bay practice squad where he will get to work to rehabilitate his career. That is one of the better moves he could have made. A year or more to sit and learn behind Tom Brady and work with quarterbacks coach Clyde Christiansen is ideal for the young signal-caller.
Watch List| Chad Kelly, FA- Chad Kelly could very well be the most intriguing and high-upside quarterback name on this entire list, but character issues and immaturity make him a volatile asset. If he can learn lessons and increase in practical wisdom, he has the physical skills to develop into a starter. We will see if there is another team out there willing to give him that shot on their practice squad.
RUNNING BACK
Watch List| Justin Jackson, LAC- Jackson has battled injuries during his NFL career, but some very impressive college tape has fantasy general managers holding out hope that Jackson could emerge, even if it id on another team.
Watch List| C.J. Procise, HOU- The Texans signed him to their practice squad. David Johnson and Duke Johnson Jr have not always been the picture of health. Neither has Procise, but if he were to get an opportunity in this offense, he might be able to make the best of it with his diverse skill set.
WIDE RECEIVER
Contending and Rebuilding Watch List | Jon'Vea Johnson, DAL- Some teams are so good at evaluating talent at one position that they have an embarrassment of riches. Dallas is a great example of a team that evaluates receivers well. As a result, the talented Johnson lies buried behind Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Noah Brown. Dallas did not have the room to hold on to Johnson and will try to put him on the practice squad. Other needy teams monitoring the situation might be willing to give Johnson a spot on their 53-man roster eventually. It is a long shot, but this camp standout two years running is worth monitoring to see if he gets a true opportunity elsewhere.
TIGHT END
Contending 1%, Rebuilding 1-5%| Mo Alie-Cox, IND- With Trey Burton already injured, Cox is just one step away from the starting job. Jack Doyle has not been completely healthy for the last couple of years either, so the basketball convert could get a chance to shine in an offense that likes to utilize its tight ends.
Contending 1%, Rebuilding 1-5%| Kaden Smith, NYG- Evan Engram is often banged up and Smith had demonstrated surprising competancy for New York when called upon to fill in. Could he be the future for the team at the position? It's certainly possible and worth taking a flier on to find out.
LOST AT SEA
(PLAYERS WHO RECENTLY APPEARED IN THIS COLUMN, BUT HAVE HAD THEIR VALUE DECREASE TO THE POINT THEY HOLD NO VALUE IN ALL BUT THE VERY DEEPEST OF DYNASTY LEAGUES.)
None yet this season ...