After releasing articles on the strategy of late-round quarterbacks and tight ends a couple of weeks ago, the "upside" series continues this week with running backs. However, this article is not intended to follow the same format. If the optimal strategy is to draft quarterbacks and tight ends late due to the factors discussed in those articles, fantasy GMs would be filling their rosters with running backs and wide receivers in the early rounds.
Therefore, this article will focus on late-round running backs. These players will always be backups on our fantasy team, and they'll likely be backups on their NFL teams as well.
Because we've spent at least seven rounds filling our roster with backs and receivers, we have a true RB1 and at least two additional starter-quality running backs. Therefore, the goal with a late-round running back isn't to find a middling starter. It's to find a player who can provide us with RB1 production if his situation falls the right way.
Having multiple RB1s on a fantasy team is one of the biggest edges a fantasy GM can have over his opponents. The goal of this article is to provide a second (or third) RB1 to compliment the backs selected at the top of the draft.
The Recipe for RB1 Production
Potential League-Winners
Whether it's a late-round target that needs help to fulfill his potential or an elite RB1 like Christian McCaffrey or Ezekiel Elliott, the ingredients of an RB1 are:
- Three-down talent: being on the field leads to fantasy points, as does catching passes. Running backs that don't play on third down have a more difficult path to RB1 status.
- Goal-line opportunity: touchdowns are worth six times as much as 10 rushing yards. Math is easy!
- Limited depth chart competition: again, the best fantasy assets are the ones on the field the most.
We have recently released some collaborative posts on the site. One of those was asking the staff which backup running backs they like the most. The players listed below come from that article and from Chad Parsons' excellent "Assessing the Deep Running Back Landscape" article.
Note: This table assumes that the starter in front of these players is no longer in the picture. For example, in a world where Elliott exists, saying that Pollard has no depth chart competition is obviously incorrect. But if Elliott were out of the picture, Pollard would be the clear number one in Dallas.
| Player | Offense | Three Downs | Goal Line | Depth Chart | Price | Comments |
| Chase Edmonds | x | x | x | x | x | Weeks 5-7 in 2019: RB15-RB14-RB1 |
| Latavius Murray | x | x | x | x | x | Three RB1 weeks in 2019; 2 in 2018; 6 in 2017; 6 in 2016; 4 in 2015 |
| Tony Pollard | x | x | x | x | x | |
| Alexander Mattison | x | x | x | x | x | |
| Tevin Coleman | x | x | x | x | x | Four top-15 weeks in 2019; RB1 in Week 8 w/ 4 TDs |
| Kareem Hunt | x | x | x | x | Between RB15-20 4 games in 2019 even with Chubb | |
| Duke Johnson Jr | x | x | x | x |
The order in which these players are listed can be debated, but in general, the list flows from most RB1 upside to least. And here are some highlights from the backup running backs article linked above discussing some of these players:
Phil Alexander on Edmonds:
Everyone remembers the 27-126-3 rushing line Edmonds hung on the Giants last season. But he had been making the most of his carries in the weeks preceding his breakout game. If it hadn't been for a poorly-timed hamstring injury, it's possible the Kenyan Drake trade never happens and it's Edmonds who has the early-second round ADP.
Me on Murray:
...in what seems as close to "a tradition unlike any other" as anything this side of The Masters, Latavius Murray must be mentioned in a "backup running backs with RB1 upside" article. Once again, both the player and the offense have produced multiple RB1 weeks in the past and easily could again if Alvin Kamara missed time.
Jason Wood on Mattison:
Cook's injury history is impossible to ignore, and Mattison would be the centerpiece of a run-heavy offense.
The Best of the Rest
This is a group of players similar to the above group but lacking either the elite set of skills or the fantasy-rich offensive situation that the potential league-winners have. Players to target here could also include backups to starting running backs with a known injury history. Some of these players (Cohen and Gibson, for instance) have standalone value already but would become every-week fantasy starters with injuries or ineffectiveness to others on their teams' depth charts.
| Player | Offense | Three Downs | Goal Line | Depth Chart | Price | Comments |
| Ryquell Armstead | x | x | ||||
| Tarik Cohen | x | x | x | Five top-12 weekly finishes in 2018 | ||
| Antonio Gibson | x | x | ||||
| A.J. Dillon | x | x | x | |||
| Damien Harris | x | x | ||||
| Carlos Hyde | x | x | x | x | Three top-12 finishes in 2019; 59 rec. in 2017 | |
| Darrynton Evans | x | x | x |
Chad Parsons on Armstead vs. Chris Thompson as backups to Leonard Fournette, from his "Assessing the Deep Running Back Landscape" article:
Thompson, at his best, could siphon passing game work from Fournette, but Armstead profiles as more of a three-down replacement to Fournette if the lead job is open via injury. Thompson has a higher floor, but Armstead a higher ceiling.
Dan Hindery on Gibson (note: this was written before Washington released Derrius Guice, making it even more impactful commentary now):
The Washington Football Team used one of the first picks in the 3rd-round (#66 overall) to select Gibson. Clearly, there is some real belief in the organization about his potential to make a big impact. Gibson has a unique skill set, bouncing between wide receiver and running back in college. He also has some unique physical traits, with 4.39 speed at 220 pounds. In an offense starved for playmakers, the potential is there for Gibson to earn quite a few more touches than most are projecting if he proves himself a playmaker. The PPR upside for Gibson is higher than his current ADP would suggest.
Bob Henry on Dillon:
...I've watched (Dillon's) progress since he was a high school commit and then de-commit at Michigan. Even then he was an athletic marvel, posting ridiculous SPARQ scores, demonstrating excellent speed despite carrying 240 pounds and then showing as a freshman that he was ready physically to carry the load right away rushing 300 times (!) for 1,589 yards and 14 touchdowns. He'll find the field one way or another as a rookie.
The Right Way to Handcuff
"Handcuffing" (or drafting your start running back's backup as a contingency plan) has been a fantasy football strategy for years. But the traditional way to employ this strategy is flawed. Remember, the goal of fantasy football -- and our slogan here at Footballguys -- is to Dominate Your League. In a 12-team league, there are 11 losers. Don't play to stay with the pack; play to lap the field!
What does that mean in terms of handcuffing? As stated in the intro, the goal is to have multiple RB1s on your roster. Handcuffing Elliott with Pollard provides us with a maximum of one RB1. But drafting Elliott and then picking up Edmonds, Murray, or Mattison late gives us a chance to have two (or even three) RB1s if those late-round backs emerge. The naysayer will ask, "what if Elliott gets hurt, and I have zero RB1s because I didn't draft Pollard?" That means you might come in 10th in your league instead of 4th. Either way, you're one of 11 teams that didn't fulfill its goal.
We should always draft for upside. And targeting the "potential league winners" above allows us to do so.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
