The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
Team #1: 156.24 points- DID cash
Team #2: 121.74 points- did NOT cash
Overlap
Kyler Murray, now in his second NFL season, is readily equipped one of the league’s most dangerous pass-catchers, DeAndre Hopkins, and he is taking full advantage of that luxury. Murray’s efficiency throwing the ball is leaps and bounds ahead of where it was one season ago when the Cardinals were frequently utilizing raw, undeveloped rookies in the passing game to complement the reliable Larry Fitzgerald. In 2020, Murray is relying heavily upon Hopkins, and seeing massive success through the air. Last weekend, against a porous Washington Football Team secondary, whose weakness was masked in Week 1 by Carson Wentz’s tendency to hold onto the ball too long and let the pass-rush barrel down on him, Murray erupted for a second consecutive performance of at least 27 DraftKings points to open his sophomore campaign. Additionally, as one of the league’s best all-around athletes, Murray is finally utilizing his stellar running ability to pad his fantasy production. After rushing for 91 yards on 13 carries with a pair of touchdowns in Week 1 against a tough San Francisco defense, there is reason to believe this rushing production could be here to stay, as almost half of those attempts were on designed running plays to get Murray in space with the ability to make defenders miss. In Week 2, Murray’s stellar floor of rushing production, combined with a soft matchup for a developing passer with a plethora of weapons through the air, made him the quarterback-of-choice for the sharpest NFL DFS players, as he made his way into 70-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Why Kyler Murray?
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Quarterback of an up-tempo offense projected to score nearly 27 points, via the betting market, signalling plenty of fantasy production to go around for the offense.
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Improved passing efficiency with DeAndre Hopkins included in the offense should bolster passing totals and fantasy production compared to last season.
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Rushing floor exhibited in Week 1, and throughout his collegiate career, provides a massive safety net should the aerial attack unexpectedly falter.
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Playing at home, in a dome, provides a boost to offenses by negating potential adverse weather conditions.
The following in italics is last week's analysis used to project Jonathan Taylor as the Sharp Play for the week.
This offseason, the Indianapolis Colts invested a second-round pick in the NFL Draft in acquiring Jonathan Taylor to bolster the team’s running game. While expectations for Taylor in the long-run are high, he was not expected to make much of an immediate splash, as he was projected to split time in the backfield with the likes of Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, Mack was lost for the season to a torn achilles, which will force Taylor into significant playing time much sooner than they would have hoped for. Taylor, however, should be ready for the moment, as he proved to be one of the most prolific running backs in NCAA history during his time at Wisconsin. Taylor, an absolute burner who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, impressed in his NFL debut, specifically through the air where he hauled in all 6 of his targets for 67 yards. This workload in the passing game appears to be repeatable, as quarterback Philip Rivers had always shown a penchant for dumping the ball off to his running backs when in Los Angeles, and it would appear nothing has changed now that he is in Indianapolis. Additionally, the Colts are currently projected to win this matchup with the Minnesota Vikings by a field goal, according to the betting market, which should lead to increased rushing volume for Taylor. Lastly, this Week 2 matchup will be played in a dome, which typically fosters a fantasy-friendly environment for players, as there are zero worries about adverse weather conditions. In sum, Jonathan Taylor is an elite mid-range option at running back to build lineups around in all formats. Taylor’s price tag of $5,700 is simply too cheap for a player widely regarded as an elite playmaker with an expanding role in his team’s offensive attack in all phases of the game.
Why Jonathan Taylor?
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Stepping into a starting role, but still priced as a backup, with expected volume far outpacing what would be expected of players at a comparable price.
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As moderate three-point favorites, Taylor's team was expected to utilize a more run-heavy offensive attack, increasing Taylor’s expected rushing volume.
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Playing in a dome provides a boost to offenses by negating potential adverse weather conditions.
Throughout the latter half of the 2019 season, Derrick Henry emerged as perhaps the second or third-most reliable fantasy producer in all of the NFL (behind Christian McCaffrey and possibly Michael Thomas.) Then, he opened up his 2020 season with another 30-carry performance against the Denver Broncos. Proving to once again have arguably the most secure workload in the entire NFL, rostering Henry in a game that the Tennessee Titans were projected to win by approximately a touchdown over the Jacksonville Jaguars was an easy decision for NFL DFS sharps. The Tennessee Titans’ offense is one of the most run-heavy units in the entire league, especially when they are playing from ahead, as they were expected to do in Week 2. While Jacksonville’s defense was impressive against the run in Week 1 against Indianapolis, their personnel leads analysts throughout the industry to believe this unit will be one to target in DFS. Additionally, Derrick Henry’s role in Tennessee’s passing attack is poised to grow in 2020 following the departure of Dion Lewis, the team’s typical third-down running back last year. In Week 1, Henry set a career-high in routes run in a game and caught 3 passes for 15 yards. That receiving total, while unimpressive, is substantially more than his season averages last year, potentially giving Derrick Henry an even higher ceiling of production in 2020. When the dust settled, Henry was rostered by 90-percent of sharp NFL DFS players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, but Jacksonville’s defense sold out to stop the run and contained Henry to just 84 yards on 25 carries, and 0 receptions on 2 targets. Regardless of the outcome, the process behind his selection in cash-games was sound, and we should expect Henry to continue to be a popular selection by NFL DFS sharps when the gamescript is projected to favor Tennessee’s run-heavy offensive tendencies.
Why Derrick Henry?
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Secure workload as the clear-cut number-one running back in Tennessee’s offense.
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Growing passing-down work for a player that already provides an incredible floor of rushing volume and production.
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Henry’s team was favored by approximately a touchdown, which typically fosters a run-heavy and fantasy-friendly environment for the victor’s running back.
Once again, in Week 2, Davante Adams appeared in the bulk of sharp NFL DFS lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. In Week 1, Adams exploded with a 44.6-DraftKings-point performance against a suspect Minnesota Vikings’ secondary. Here, in Week 2, many of the same talking points from the season opener applied. Nothing has changed in Green Bay’s passing attack, leaving Adams without consistent competition for targets and, on the heels of a 17-target opener, he projected for an astronomical target share once again against the Detroit Lions. The Lions will also struggle to defend the pass, much like the Minnesota Vikings, this season, as their number-one cornerback is rookie Jeff Okudah. While Okudah will likely develop into an above-average pass-defender, taking on one of the league’s most refined route-runners in his NFL debut was a tall task, to say the least-- Okudah was inactive for Week 1. The Packers’ team total in Week 2 was also the highest of any team on the slate, at over 30-points, leading sharps to believe that there would be numerous opportunities for Adams to find the endzone and pay off his steep $8,100 price tag. Adams sustained a hamstring injury mid-game that limited him to playing just 52-percent of Green Bay’s offensive snaps and only 3 receptions for 33 yards.
Why Davante Adams?
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Elite wide receiver going up against an inexperienced and exploitable secondary.
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Secure, and large, target-share projection for the number-one pass-catcher in an offense that lacks a talented complement in the passing game.
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Playing on the offense with the highest projected team total on the DraftKings main slate of games.
Reviewing My Cash Lineup
140.24 points- DID cash
Step 1: Last week’s Projected Sharp Play- Jonathan Taylor
Build around Jonathan Taylor, last week’s Projected Sharp Play. Analysis regarding why Taylor was the premier option to build cash teams around can be found above in the Overlap section of this article.
Step 2: Identify what high-end options to prioritize- Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott
Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott jumped off the page as the two high-end options to jam into my cash-game lineup and build around after Jonathan Taylor. Analysis regarding why Henry stood out on this slate can be found above, in the Overlap section of this article. Ezekiel Elliott also stood out this weekend in a soft matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who allowed 38 points to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. In this projected shootout with a projected total of approximately 53.5 points, both teams were expected to light up the scoreboard. Rostering the bell-cow running back with a high level of involvement both on the ground and through the air on the favored team was one of the safest and highest-upside plays on the slate. Additionally, FootballGuys’ projections were very fond of both Henry and Elliott in Week 2, projecting both players for over 20 DraftKings points to go along with exceptionally high h-values, which have proven to be a great signal for sharp selections for cash-game lineups.
Step 3: Find the best value options to allow for multiple expensive pieces- Diontae Johnson and Chris Herndon
As always, identifying the best value options, especially on a slate that appears chock-full of them, is a critical decision point in building a sharp NFL cash-game lineup. This weekend, Diontae Johnson and Chris Herndon stood out to me as the best salary-saving options. Diontae Johnson, a very talented pass-catcher playing a significant role in an improving passing attack, was a fantastic buy-low option in Week 2. Overall, I am very high on Johnson’s ceiling of production in this offense, as I’ve noted on Twitter several times, and after his Week 1 performance on Monday Night Football, I was even more encouraged. Despite early struggles with drops and miscommunications with Ben Roethlisberger, Johnson saw 10 targets in the season opener. The number-two role in Pittsburgh’s passing attack has proven capable of producing fantasy-revelant numbers consistently with Roethlisberger under-center, and this projects to remain the case in 2020. At $4,500, Johnson was my favorite value-play on the slate. Next, Chris Herndon made the most sense in this lineup at tight end, as Jets’ tight end cost just $3,400. The New York Jets’ receiving corps has been riddled with injuries early in the season, and they entered Week 2 without their number-one pass-cathcer, Jamison Crowder. Crowder led the team with 13 targets and 7 reception in Week 1, and Herndon ranked second in both categories, with 7 targets and 6 receptions, respectively. Although a matchup against San Francisco’s defense was a tough one, Herndon’s expected volume far outpaced what his meager price tag implied, making him a popular choice in cash-games. Unfortunately, this play did not pan out, as seemingly everything Adam Gase touches turns into fantasy dust, and Herndon hauled in just 1 of his 4 targets for 5 yards on the day.
Step 4: Selecting a quarterback- Kyler Murray
As noted above in the Overlap section of this article, Kyler Murray was a popular choice at quarterback amongst sharp NFL DFS players in Week 2. Murray’s expected rushing volume was probably the single largest driving force behind his selection in my cash lineup this past weekend. Consistent volume at the quarterback position is tough to find, as only a handful of players will eclipse 500 rushing yards at the position each season. Per-yard and per-touchdown, rushing production is significantly more valuable than passing production, and, in my opinion, prioritizing players who can complement their passing totals with reliable rushing production is one area that DFS players can gain an edge over their competition.
Step 5: Rounding out the lineup with the best combination at the two remaining positions: wide receiver and team defense- T.Y. Hilton and New York Jets defense
Identifying what defense to plug into a lineup is almost always the final step of building a sharp cash-game lineup in NFL DFS. Given the inherent randomness included projecting team defenses' fantasy production, opting for a cheap option in cash-games to allow for extra salary elsewhere is becoming an increasingly popular and sharp strategy. This weekend, with the San Francisco 49ers’ offense missing George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, their top two returning pass-catchers from last season’s roster, the opposing New York Jets defense made the most sense as a punt-play at just $2,000. Lastly, T.Y. Hilton rounded out my lineup as the third, and final, selection at wide receiver. Hilton’s Week 1 numbers were disappointing, as he failed to convert his many opportunities into fantasy production. Here, in Week 2, he matched up against a porous Minnesota secondary that allowed a 44.6-DraftKings-point performance to Green Bay’s number-one wide receiver, Davante Adams, in Week 1. Given Hilton’s established role as the number-one receiver in Indianapolis’ offense, he projected to benefit the most from this soft matchup. Ultimately, Hilton came up short once again, as he saw just five targets in the game, including one he dropped that would have resulted in a touchdown. Fortunately, Hilton’s measly 5.8 DraftKings points at $5,700 were not enough to tank the lineup, as I was still able to finish in the green using these principles to build my lineup in Week 2.
Projected Sharp Play: D.J. Moore
D.J. Moore’s numbers through his first two professional seasons rank amongst the best of any wide receiver in the history of the NFL before turning 24 years-old. This serves to prove how remarkably talented Carolina’s number-one receiver is, and he should continue to see higher target totals in the coming weeks with Christian McCaffrey sidelined due to an ankle injury. McCaffrey commands significant volume both on the ground and through the air in Carolina’s offense, and his absence should lead to an increase in passing volume for the Panthers while simultaneously removing one high-volume target from the equation. Expect D.J. Moore to absorb a significant portion of the available targets in Joe Brady’s newly-installed aerial attack in Carolina. Moore has posted target totals of 9 and 13 in weeks 1 and 2, respectively, and he should be expected to reach double-digit targets consistently in the coming weeks. As nearly 6.5-point underdogs, the Carolina Panthers should be expected to employ a pass-heavy offensive attack this weekend against the Los Angeles Chargers, making the team’s pass-catchers even more enticing. Build around D.J. Moore in all formats this weekend at just $6,100 on DraftKings.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @StillZam with any questions, comments, or concerns about this article-- or with any fantasy football questions you may have for this upcoming week!