This article is about an 8-minute read.
Welcome to Auction Day. You have done your homework in reading everything you could get your hands on – from the Footballguys’ Auction Primer to Drew Davenport’s Article Series on Mastering the Auction. You have the three sheets that Drew recommends – a tier sheet, a few example rosters with exact dollar amounts for each position and roster spot, and your nomination list.
What could possibly go wrong?
If this is one of your first auctions, the butterflies will be fluttering all in your stomach as the nervous energy builds. Relax, it happens to all of us. Preparation is one of the ways to reduce the anxiety of the auction about to get underway. Try not to think about how the next three or four hours might make or break your fantasy team for the next three or four months – sorry, that probably did not help.
Here is something that should help you – and that is a few What ifs for your auction. While they are labeled What ifs, that’s a bit of a misnomer, as most of these hypothetical situations are extremely probably to occur. Consider this a handbook for how to navigate the tricky waters of the 2019 fantasy auction season.
Here we go.
Situations at RUNNING BACK
1. What if you want a top-four running back this year (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Alvin Kamara)?
This is probably the most common question for 2020, and there are many ways that it can play out. If you really have your heart set on starting your team with one of these five rushers, consider these tips:
Be the first to nominate one of these players – and go after him. As long as the price is at or near your target, consider that a success. For example, you really want Barkley this season, so you start the bidding for him and it quickly escalates to $60, which is right about your target price for him. Should you continue? Odds are in your favor if you continue the bidding, as you want him on your team – and you should be willing to go up 10-15% extra to secure your RB1. Why? There are a few reasons that Barkley at $69 is still worth it, even if you have his “value” at $60:
- You have a top-four running back as the star of your roster.
- The market has been set for elite running back talent. Now the rest of the top-four tailbacks (or more) are going to go for an inflated value (according to your pre-auction estimates) – which helps ease the pain of overspending.
- Giving up on the first player that you really want will set you back both psychologically and also hurt your auction budget. The downside to giving up too early (even at $70) can be tremendous, as odds are that your primary plan was to have Barkley as your fantasy centerpiece this year, and now after the first 10-15 minutes (or less) of your auction, you have to move to Plan B. If Plan B centered around grabbing one of the other top-four running backs, that is also going to be painful with Barkley setting the market higher than you expected. A Plan B of “Elliott instead of Barkley to start” will hurt even more if Elliott’s price is nearly the same as Barkley. That scenario will leave you second-guessing yourself for the rest of the auction, which is a great way to psych yourself out for most of the auction. Do not give up on Plan A too early.
Now, if you happen to land your top-four running back and you think you got a bargain, do NOT check out of the rest of the running backs in the Top 4. You should be – at a minimum of involvement – price enforcing all of the five backs to at least 70% of your estimated value (or 70% of the price you paid for the top-four running back you secured). Worst case is that you land two running backs in the Top 4 and if you happen to do that for 50% or less of your total budget, start planning your acceptance speech for the end of the season. The only time to stop pushing the values of the top-four running backs is after you are lucky enough to own two of them.
2. What if someone nominates the elite running back you want before you get the chance to do it?
Treat the situation as if you nominated that player yourself and proceed as above.
3. What if someone nominates an elite running back that you do not covet?
This is where it can get a little tricky, but pretend you already own the elite rusher already and price enforce the nominated player to 70-75% of your value chart, then consider backing off. If it is Barkley or Elliott, for example, and you are hoping to land McCaffrey, you want the current winning bid to go to your value number, or very close. That will cement the value of the player you want and ensure that you are going to land that player, even at a 10-15% premium.
4. What if a few elite running backs have been nominated, and you still are waiting to nominate the one you really want?
This is where it can get dicey, and that is why you must have several plans of attack for your auction. If two backs have been nominated and are going around your value point, that’s good – but adding a third name with some fantasy team owners perceiving that there are only four elite backs in 2020 will make this a tough decision. You do have a few options:
- Continue to price enforce and possibly land this third back (thus sort of backing into the two-stud running back plan).
- Go after that player and potentially give up on your stud back (probably not a good psychological move, but it is a possibility).
- Quickly estimate how overpriced your favorite running back might become with the three others gone. If that number is still in the acceptable range, just wait for the fourth back and be willing to after that player very aggressively. Worst case is you do not have any of the top-four running backs and another roster construction will be the new plan.
As several of the Footballguys’ auction articles point out, when a tier starts to get eliminated, the value of the players left in that tier will increase – and so will the price. Either fantasy team owners are saving for those players to hit the bidding floor, or they are fearful of missing out on an elite option, or both. Regardless of the reason, if there are only one or two elite rushers left, expect a bidding war, and plan accordingly. The ideal scenario is to grab your elite rusher for your plan as early as possible.
Bonus Question - What to do about handcuffs
This is a unique year as the top-four running backs do not have true handcuffs except for Elliott (Tony Pollard) and Alvin Kamara (Latavius Murray). If you are a firm believer that Murray offers RB2-type production even if Kamara stays healthy all season long, then the strategy is to nominate him relatively early, and preferably right after the Kamara bidding is complete. If you are lucky enough to nominate right after the auction for Kamara, play up the crowd and excitedly nominate Murray for $10 or so, with a smirk and glance at the Kamara owner. Odds are that at least one of the other owners will laugh at how you are trying to hold the Kamara owner for ransom, but you are really masking your true desire to own Murray yourself and for a relative bargain. The perfect play here is to nominate him for 50% of your valuation (in most auctions, $10 is about right) which gives you room to come up a few times in $1 increments and secure him for $16 or less – which could be a steal this season.
Situations at OTHER SKILL POSITIONS
5. What if you covet Patrick Mahomes II, Lamar Jackson, or a top-two tight end?
Drew Davenport covered the Mahomes situation pretty well in Part 4 of his Mastering Auctions articles last year, where he recommended Mahomes with your first nomination to determine if he is a reasonable value or not – and pivoting to an alternate plan if he costs too much. This approach will work well for an “either/or” plan where you want to start with an elite player at one of two positions, whichever is the best value (such as quarterback and tight end in his example). This year each of the quarterback (Mahomes and Jackson) and tight end (Travis Kelce and George Kittle) positions have an elite tier of two players each. Going after the first of the two nominated could represent a bargain, and this is where knowing your league and your projections will matter most. If you believe that Kelce should go for $30 based on your league rules, getting him about that price is likely a bargain, because once he goes off the board, George Kittle will go for close to that number as well. The same argument on pricing can be made for Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes II. Once one goes for a big number, the other will go off the board at about that same figure. The first actor may win the battle here, and with much stronger depth at quarterback, getting an elite tight end might be a great option and also a strong value.
6. What about wide receivers?
There are so many candidates for strong wide receivers this year, this topic is almost not even worth covering. At least 15 wide receivers have legitimate WR1 fantasy upside, and there are at least 40 good wide receivers to cover the WR2 and WR3 categories, with at least a dozen more to round out solid rosters. If you are in love with a sleeper or two outside of the Top 50, feel free to save $2-3 each for those guys later in the auction, which should be plenty.
PARTING THOUGHTS
7. What are the key things to remember for this season?
- Get involved in nearly every auction early, and let the first 10-20 players help you to determine how you will construct your roster.
- Nominate a player you want with your first nomination if you do not have a player, and preferably at a position that lacks value definition. If you think Patrick Mahomes II is worth $40 or Ezekiel Elliott is worth $55, see if the rest of your league agrees. If you get that player on the cheap, stay active early and look for another elite player at a discount.
Hopefully, these What Ifs will help you with your final preparation for your auction this year, and best of luck this season!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.