The Coronavirus has forced sports to adopt unique measures to produce a playing season. Because a positive test could sideline a player for at least three weeks and there’s no way of projecting how many positive cases there will be during the NFL season, Footballguys wants to give you resources that will help you weather the potential loss of players.
As the author of the most comprehensive scouting analysis of skill players since 2006, I’m one of those resources—especially for players at the bottom of depth charts, signed to practice squads and training at home with dreams of that phone call from an NFL team.
Each week, I’ll walk you through the shortlist of players who will get their shot to contribute as replacements to starters who tested positive for the Coronavirus. We’ll examine three types of replacements:
- Players who get immediate playing time.
- Preemptive additions from your league’s waiver wire.
- Options worth monitoring in case the established backup eventually misses time.
If you don’t think street free agents won’t factor, Raheem Mostert is on line one waiting for you to pick up, and he has a long list of players before him who would like to make an appointment to set you straight.
Week 1-2 Review and Changes
Here my brief thoughts and recommendations for Week 1's players as we move forward:
- (Add Now) Jordan Reed: Two touchdowns and a primary role in the passing game? Absolutely add now.
- (Add Now) RB James Robinson: The UDFA rookie performed adequately as a runner and receiver, which will earn him at least another week or two as the starter. He's worth your consideration as a temporary starter who might grow into a permanent part of your rotation if the Jaguars' victory was a sign of things to come and not an exploitation of a Colts team off to a slow start.
- (Preemptive to Monitor) WR Quintez Cephus: Detroit's fifth-round pick led the Lions in targets as Kenny Golladay's replacement. Cephus faced mostly off coverage and made three big plays throughout the game and earned a pair of targets that could have resulted in scores, if accurate. He also dropped a pair of passes due to small and easily correctable mistakes with his routes that are indicative of a player overthinking. Cephus made more plays against zone coverage in Week 2 but on fewer targets. He's a player to monitor who you can probably drop and re-add if needed.
- (Monitor to Preemptive) Mike Thomas: While most are waiting for Tee Higgins and Auden Tate to work their ways into the rotation, there is a rapport between Thomas and Burrow that's has led to meaningful late-game targets in Week 1 and a touchdown in Week 2. Thomas offers more as a route runner and vertical threat than Higgins and Tate. He's worth a speculative add if you have the luxury.
- (Monitor) Lamical Perine: He's still a limited participant in practices and splitting reserve reps with Josh Adams.
- (Monitor) WR K.J. Hill: Jalen Guyton started in three-receiver sets and earned 1 target in 47 snaps for a 16-yard catch in Week 1 and caught a touchdown in Week 2. Hill has not see the field. Continue to monitor.
- (Monitor) WR Jake Kumerow: Still learning the Bills offense after the Packers cut him, he'll remain on the practice squad. Continue monitoring Kumerow and expect him to be elevated to the active roster within the next 3-5 weeks.
- (Monitor) J.J. Taylor: His snap count dropped from 9 to 1 in Week 2.
- (Preemptive to Monitor) WR Justin Watson: With Chris Godwin returning in Week 3 and Watson practicing on a limited basis in this week with a shoulder injury, you can lower Watson to monitor status.
- (Add now to Monitor) RB Josh Adams: He earned five snaps and the dinged-up Lamical Perine earned nine.
Robinson is a viable weekly option. Thomas is worth a preemptive add in anticipation that he earns more opportunities this week based on his performance in Week 2 and the past two weeks of rapport. Cephus is a high-variance selection because he has had (non-fantasy) success during his first to games that could lead to additional growth and production as the season progresses but he's most likely to move to a reserve/rotational role when Kenny Golladay returns.
This week is an all-running back edition based on the injuries around the league.
Add Now: RB Devonta Freeman (Giants)
The Skinny on Freeman: The former Falcons starter earned a one-year, $3 million deal and beat reporter Ralph Vacchiano says Freeman will immediately be a part of a hot-hand committee approach in Week 3, according to head coach Joe Judge. I've been watching Freeman every week that he's played during the span of his career with Atlanta as the Footballguy covering the Falcons for recaps. There's a reasonable argument that he's lost some of the juice with his acceleration, but Atlanta had such a weak offensive line for much of the time that Freeman was healthy last year that I wouldn't rule out the unit's problems as a bigger reason that Freeman struggled in 2019.
Dion Lewis has the juice and receiving chops, but he has struggled to find a rhythm with the Titans and now the Giants when operating between the tackles. Wayne Gallman is a tough runner with receiving chops, but he's a straight-line option who doesn't add a lot to a zone running scheme. The Giants are paying Freeman with the hope that he's still "got it" athletically to combine the best of the other two backs.
Recommendation: Considering that Freeman has experience playing with mediocre-to-bad offensive lines for most of his career, he's a worthwhile option to take a cheap chance on as a lead back or featured starter for the Giants. No one in our Footballguys staff league added Freeman to its rosters and we can start up to four running backs. They all think he's washed-up or the offensive line isn't good enough to support what Freeman needs. This is probably true but if you're desperate, Freeman's experience and skills combined with this opportunity are enough to make him at add-and-start for 1-3 weeks.
Preemptive: Darwin Thompson (Chiefs) and Jordan Wilkins (Colts)
The Skinny on Thompson: It seemed like everyone presumed that Thompson was on the outs with the Chiefs when the organization drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire and signed DeAndre Washington as a free agent. I never thought Washington would overtake Thompson because Washington lacks Thompson's speed and strength, and Thompson had more promise based on his rookie year and college game tape that Washington showed last year with the Raiders. Thompson earning the third spot on the depth chart also reflects the coaching staff's recommendation to the public not to sleep on him, praising Thompson's steady improvement throughout the 2019 season.
With Darrel Williams likely out this week with an ankle sprain, Thompson earns the second chair on the depth chart and he'll play. Edwards-Helaire lacks power and he made multiple bad decisions in the red zone and earned 100 percent of the blame for the Chiefs' red-zone failures in Week 1 from his running back coach. Thompson is stronger and faster than Edwards-Helaire and he's a more promising pass protector. This will be needed against the Baltimore Ravens, a physical defense that throws a lot of blitzes at a quarterback.
Recommendation: Thompson is worth a luxury pick for fantasy GMs with larger rosters and they're seeking depth in great offenses. Although the buzz on Edwards-Helaire has been massive and he played well in specific circumstances in the season-opener, Andy Reid won't hesitate to roll this back to a committee of the rookie struggles for another week or two between the tackles. And if Edwards-Helaire gets hurt, Thompson offers you no worse than RB3 fantasy value.
The Skinny on Wilkins: Think of Wilkins as the Colts' version of Malcolm Brown, an excellent running back with all-around skills with the exception of breakaway speed. Most front offices undervalue these backs only until desperation hits the dept chart because they are attracted to the glitz and glamor of a great 40-Yard Dash time ahead of the substance that these two backs deliver when on the field.
Wilkins has excellent vision and contact balance, and he's well-versed in every blocking scheme a runner will encounter in the NFL. He's quick enough to reach the secondary and he has improved his pass protection over the years. He has also fought off a bevy of contenders for the No.3 role over the past few years—several who were presumed to have future RB1 talent and would easily unseat Wilkins and grow from there.
Not so.
With Marlon Mack gone for the year, and Nyheim Hines a limited talent, Wilkins is Jonathan Taylor's understudy behind an excellent offensive line that has a quarterback who will make the right checks at the line to get his backs into optimal situations against opposing defenses. Circling back to Hines, the scatback is super fast and a terrific threat in the receiving game but he's a draw-play runner who can occasionally make a decent decision behind a gap block. The Colts need more than this from a lead back, which is why Wilkins has the most value behind Taylor from an every-down perspective.
Recommendation: If you have Taylor and a large enough roster, you should have added Wilkins last week. If you have the luxury to add a runner who could pop due to injury, I'd recommend Wilkins above Thompson and really, any back I think of who wasn't drafted as a valuable reserve.
Monitor: RB JaMycal Hasty (49ers) and RB Reggie Bonnafon (Carolina)
The Skinny on Hasty: Our recent Roundtable panel recommended Jeffery Wilson multiple times as a player to monitor. It's a good idea because he has experience and skill as a pass-catcher. He's not a super-imaginative runner but behind the 49ers excellent line, he's capable of fantasy production.
However, I want you to keep an eye on Hasty, who the 49ers elevated from the practice squad this week. Hasty is an agile and sudden back with excellent short-area quickness and acceleration who reminds me stylistically of Ahmad Bradshaw. Hasty has experience as a receiving back during his years at Baylor.
He offers more athletically than Wilson and if he displays knowledge of the offense and doesn't make mistakes when given small doses of playing time, he could leapfrog Wilson faster than most imagine.
Recommendation: With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman out, Jerick McKinnon and Wilson will earn the most playing time. However, Hasty's skills are closer the mode of backs that have had success in this scheme and that the 49ers prefer. Watch his snap count and look for plays where he either pops or makes mistakes. If it's the former, he could be a week or two away from a preemptive add if the starting rotation isn't healthy anytime soon.
The Skinny on Bonnafon: The Panther's No.3 back has experience rotating into the offense and has shown skill between the tackles and as a receiver during the limited time. There was no way he was going to beat out Mike Davis for the No.2 role, but he's an excellent third back on a depth chart who can give fantasy players RB3 production as the only game in town if Davis gets hurt soon after taking over for the injured Christian McCaffrey.
Recommendation: Keep an eye on Davis' health but know that if Davis gets hurt there is a strong chance the Panthers seek a veteran through free agency or trade who can at least split time with Bonnafon or even play ahead of the reserve.
Good luck!