We asked our staff to make a call on a wide receiver. Who will surprise - either good or bad?
Jeff Haseley
There are two guys I could go with here. Jerry Jeudy, who is a personal favorite of mine. I think he comes in from the start and is a big centerpiece of the Broncos offense. I am also high on Terry McLaurin. I love his intelligence of the game, his attitude of wanting to always excel, the talent he brings to the role, and his position as Washington's top receiver. However, the one that I can foresee taking a leap forward into a top-10 ranking is Calvin Ridley.
Why Ridley?
Below is the Falcons target distribution between Weeks 8 and Week 14 - after Mohamed Sanu was traded to New England and before Calvin Ridley's abdominal injury. The results show Ridley out-performing Julio Jones. This trend could continue into 2020 and beyond.
Weeks 8-14, 2019 season
- Calvin Ridley 49 targets, 34 recs, 493 yds, 3 TDs
- Julio Jones 46 targets, 29 recs, 456 yds, 0 TDs
- Russell Gage 41 targets, 28 recs, 258 yds, 1 TDs
Seven weeks is a pretty decent range to look at for comparison. Jones is starting to show wear and tear on his body, frequently missing a down, possession, a half, or even a full game to heal a nagging injury that has kept him down. His needle is pointing down while Ridley is entering the prime of his career. His needle is definitely pointing up. 2020 may be the year Ridley overtakes Jones as the Falcons top-producing receiver and I'll be here for all of it.
Ryan Hester
Terry McLaurin sees over 30% of Washington's targets. He turns in a relatively inefficient season because of who they're coming from but still finishes as a WR1 in all formats. Look no further than Allen Robinson's 2019 for a comparison to what McLaurin can do. Robinson saw 153 targets (mostly from Mitchell Trubisky) and caught 98 passes for 1,147 yards and 7 touchdowns. His 254.9 PPR points made him the overall WR8 last year. Robinson's target market share was 27%.
As a team, Washington attempted 477 passes last year. 30% of that number would yield 143 targets for McLaurin -- within the range of Robinson's 2019 number. If Washington's volume increases to over 500 attempts, McLaurin's floor and ceiling go with it.
Andy Hicks
One big call is so hard at this position. I have at least nine or ten wide receivers where my opinion differs widely from the rest of the staff.
I’m on the extreme positive side for Keenan Allen, DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry, Deebo Samuel, and Darius Slayton.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, and Tyler Lockett are total fades for me this year as well.
I will stick with JuJu Smith-Schuster as my planted flag at wide receiver for 2020.
It essentially boils down to which version of Smith-Schuster we see this year. The 2018 WR1 who was able to exploit the defenses focus on Antonio Brown or the 2019 version who couldn’t cope with a multitude of factors against him. Let's just start with some numbers. Twelve catches for 109 yards and zero touchdowns. That’s a nice game for a receiver. It is however not a good result for your last five games. This is where we are at when assessing Smith-Schuster. The optimist will insist that Smith-Schuster was carrying an injury and had subpar quarterback play. Some of us think that the departure of Antonio Brown proved that Smith-Schuster is not an NFL number one receiver. Another concern is that Pittsburgh just keeps drafting receivers with high picks. Smith-Schuster himself was taken with the 62nd pick in the 2017 draft. James Washington the 60th pick in 2018, Diontae Johnson the 66th in 2019, and this year the Steelers went even higher with Chase Claypool and the 49th overall pick. We should also mention the addition of Eric Ebron at tight end in free agency. In the final year of his rookie contract, Smith-Schuster may think he will be a Steeler for life, but Pittsburgh has shown they won’t be held hostage in contract negotiations. With the luxury of depth at the position, it would not surprise if JuJu leaves after this season to free agency riches. To those relying on Ben Roethlisberger to be the solution, he is closer to 39 than 38 and after missing last season with an injury he doesn’t inspire confidence with his fitness regime. Could this be his final season? Another injury and it’s almost certain. I think Roethlisberger will be fine but think he will target the other receivers more as Smith-Schuster slides down the depth chart.
Jason Wood
I love the McLaurin call and said as much in this week's training camp reports. But my plant-your-flag call at receiver also happens to be my boldest call at any position this year. Brandin Cooks will be a top-20 fantasy receiver and is the cheapest bargain on draft boards entering the heart of the drafting season. I wrote a Player Spotlight outlining my thoughts. The crux of my argument is four-fold. Cooks has been a top-12 (much less top-20) receiver in four of six seasons. He's stepping into a high-octane passing attack that needs to replace more than 160 vacated targets from DeAndre Hopkins. His ADP is grossly depressed by his disappointing 2019, but he's 100% healthy and no more at risk of concussions than any other player. Cooks has averaged 1.91 fantasy points per target in his career, which his right in line with what DeAndre Hopkins averaged playing with DeShaun Watson. Yes, Cooks has played with great quarterbacks, but he's going to a team with another great signal-caller.
Phil Alexander
D.J. Chark will finish inside the top-12 wide fantasy wide receivers.
Chark is on a shortlist of players since the turn of the century to record a season with minimums of 70 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 8 touchdowns before his age-24 season. Kelvin Benjamin notwithstanding, the other players on that list are certifiable fantasy superheroes.
When a player with Chark's elite athleticism translates to the NFL at a young age, it should command our attention, especially since he's still in a great situation:
- The Jaguars' defense is terrible, and Gardner Minshew will make his share of mistakes. Jacksonville's offense should skew pass-heavy.
- Chark is a splash-play specialist. He led the Jaguars with a 33% market share of the team's air yards -- a rate that ranked 15th in the entire league.
- His target volume is safe. The only addition to Jacksonville's wide receiver corps was rookie Laviska Shenault. Shenault is an oft-injured athletic marvel in the Percy Harvin/Cordarrelle Patterson mold -- not a guy who will command any of the targets that are ear-marked for Chark, especially not in year-one.
- Jay Gruden is bringing his West Coast offense to Jacksonville this season. It's a system that got the most out of A.J. Green, another rare athletic talent who always got his numbers despite less than stellar quarterback play. Chark also has experience in a similar system from his time at LSU.
Dan Hindery
In best ball drafts, I am reserving at least two picks in rounds 8 thru 11 for rookie wide receivers in every single draft. Based upon current ADPs, I like all six of the wide receivers who were first-round NFL picks: Jalen Reagor (89), Henry Ruggs (92), CeeDee Lamb (98), Brandon Aiyuk (114), Jerry Jeudy (126), and Justin Jefferson (145).
Of these rookies, Jeudy is the biggest bargain and the one wide receiver who I most want to plant my flag on. He will easily outperform his WR54 ADP. He is just too talented, polished, and mature not to make a major impact as a rookie.
Jeudy will be especially valuable when it matters most for our fantasy teams -- Weeks 14, 15, and 16. By the end of the year, I expect Jeudy will have already emerged as a solid fantasy WR2 option and predict he has at least one huge fantasy playoff performance that helps you win your championship.
There may be some concern that the abbreviated offseason could cause slow starts for some rookies. I do not fully buy that argument but even if I did, it would not matter much because player performances in each week of the fantasy playoffs are many times more valuable than any week of the regular season. This is when I expect the rookie wide receivers to shine. From Week 14 to Week 16 last season, 5 of the top 21 receivers were rookies. Even more impressively, three of the top seven wide receivers in the 2019 fantasy playoffs were rookies. I think we see the same thing happen in 2020.
Jeff Tefertiller
Adam Thielen is criminally undervalued and underrated in the fantasy community. He boasts a strong rapport with quarterback Kirk Cousins and his biggest competition for targets (Diggs) is now in Buffalo.
Most Minnesota beat reporters have stated that Olabisi Johnson is the WR2 with rookie Justin Jefferson the WR3. Thielen is going to dominate the WR targets.
Sure, I expect the Vikings to utilize 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE) often, but Thielen is going to get enough targets to finish in the fantasy top five WRs once again.
Jeff Pasquino
Emmanuel Sanders will be a strong fantasy starter in leagues requiring at least three wide receivers.
Matt Waldman and I talked about him in our Undervalued Wide Receivers article, but it is worth another mention. New Orleans has been searching for a decent second wide receiver ever since Brandin Cooks was a Saint all the way back in 2016. For the past three seasons, the second wide receiver has been a very forgettable and unproductive spot:
- 2019 WR2 - Ted Ginn Jr - 55 targets, 30-421-2 (finished as WR35, WR34 in PPR)
- 2018 WR2 - Tre’Quan Smith - 44-28-427-5 (66/73)
- 2017 WR2 - Ted Ginn Jr - 70-53-787-4 (35/34)
Prior to those three seasons, Cooks and Michael Thomas had a relatively solid split of work, and the offense was much more balanced:
- 2016 WR1A - Brandin Cooks, 117-78-1173-8 (WR8 / WR10)
- 2016 WR1B - Michael Thomas, 121-92-1137-9 (WR9 / WR7)
So while I do not equate Emmanuel Sanders with Brandin Cooks, Sanders has had strong fantasy seasons, including three 1,000-yard seasons from 2014-2016, where he had a solid quarterback. That will certainly be true again in New Orleans with Drew Brees. New Orleans made a strong investment in Sanders (two-year deal, $16M) and I believe that he is a huge value this year that can spark any fantasy team to higher performance.
Chad Parsons
Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks will finish as a top-12 fantasy receiver. Both have a positional average draft position more than double this threshold and at least one is poised to be a significant value. Deshaun Watson has been a top-8 quarterback (top quartile) in the NFL and historically, this top tier (top-8) has an average finish by their top fantasy receiver as WR12. With DeAndre Hopkins gone, Cooks and Fuller are the two primary candidates to be the WR1 for Watson. Fuller has missed plenty of games in his career (has only played 42 games of possible 64 over four seasons) but has been a per-game maven when on the field with Watson. Fuller is a Leonard Fournette type in the sense when/if he puts together a healthy stretch, the upside is robust. 2020 feels like the perfect storm for Fuller in a pivotal year for his future NFL opportunities (Year 5). Brandin Cooks has an injury-prone moniker due to concussions but has missed a mere two games dating back to 2015. Cooks had fewer than 1,000 yards in 2019 for the first time since his rookie season despite changing teams multiple times over the stretch. Cooks has yet another strong quarterback pairing and is a strong bet to crush his ADP.
Andrew Davenport
I'm taking my stand on Will Fuller. I know this is about as risky as it gets to make this call, but my call is that he plays 14+ games and finishes as a Top 10 receiver.
Rostering Fuller is easier in auctions than in serpentine drafts as he needs to be selected in the 8th round of drafts to make sure he's on your team. In auctions, you can mitigate some of the risk by getting him as a WR3 or lower, lessening the damage he does to your squad if he misses time. But even so, an 8th round selection with Fuller's potential is a gamble I want to make.
There aren't many wide receivers in the league who have the situation or the ability that Fuller does. He plays with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, who keeps plays alive for the deep ball, and who is behind a very good offensive line. Fuller also finds himself on a team with a mediocre Texans defense that got worse this offseason and is likely to hemorrhage points consistently. Those factors alone are a recipe for fantasy success.
Along with those positives, Fuller now finds himself as the #1 wide receiver for the Texans after DeAndre Hopkins took 150 targets with him to Arizona. And while many peg him as a one-trick pony who can only go deep, he is talented enough to work all areas of the field. Bill O'Brien made this assertion himself recently by saying he believes Watson and Fuller have a strong connection and that he can run the whole route tree. There is ample reason to believe that if Fuller stays on the field he will earn 135+ targets.
But I've saved my favorite argument for last. Fuller had his fifth-year option picked up by the Texans this offseason and he now enters a contract year. He re-dedicated himself to his body and staying healthy, and earning that next deal has a way of helping to keep someone dedicated to staying on the field. He knows the pressure is on, he knows the things people are saying about him, and a big fat contract and his reputation are on the line in 2020. This has the feel of a threshold year for Fuller - his career arc will take a turn one way or another after this season.
For the draft cost, I can't think of a guy I want to roster more than Will Fuller. I recognize the risk, but there just aren't that many guys who have his league winning upside where he's being taken. I'm betting on him staying healthy and delivering a monster season.
Will Grant
I have a couple of quick hitters.
Juju Smith-Schuster is going to be a top 5 fantasy wide receiver this year. He's going somewhere in the 3rd round now and that's going to be big value to whoever lands him. A healthy Ben Roethlisberger will make a world of difference and the supporting cast around him means that J2S2 should be worth every bit the low-1st round pick people spent on him last year.
DeAndre Hopkins is going to disappoint folks who expect his stats to carry over in Arizona. I think the DeShaun Watson - Hopkins combo was rock solid, but I don't see it happening in a new offense, no matter what the hype. I could see him putting up low WR2 numbers this season.
Sigmund Bloom
Randall Cobb will end up being a consistent WR3/Flex play in PPR leagues with potential spike weeks. He was paid 10 million a year to be a core part of the pass offense by the head coach. Deshaun Watson fed Keke Coutee targets the only time he has had a true slot receiver. One or both of the top two outside receivers could miss time with injuries. Cobb is getting nothing but good reviews in training camp. This is a free square in the late rounds.
