Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Much like the Pittsburgh Steelers up until last week, this column has stumbled to the finish line in the past couple of weeks, going 6-10 in consecutive outings. Favorites came roaring back in Week 16, going 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS. Big underdogs in the Bengals, 49ers, and Cowboys covered, but so did the Bucs (-12), Ravens (-9.5), and Bears (-9). It is time to finish out the regular season with a bang.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY (-6) (Over/Under 50)
The Falcons have gone 4-3 ATS as the underdog in 2020, with their brave display against the juggernaut Chiefs another example of how much spirit Raheem Morris’ coaching has injected into the operation. Owner Arthur Blank is unlikely to get too invested in recent displays and choose to keep Morris, but his team’s effort – and the core of players Atlanta has assembled – have something to build on. The future of Matt Ryan, of course, is among their biggest questions and this could be the final chapter of his story with the franchise that he has spent his entire career with.
Tom Brady’s majestic passing blitz on Saturday gave the Bucs a comfortable half-time lead, allowing the venerated quarterback to rest in the second half as the team secured a playoff berth. With the Saints already having locked up the NFC South, the Bucs will simply play for pride this week, not for positioning. How much the starters will play makes this line difficult to take a side on, but the likelihood of benching starters gives the visitors a slight edge.
Pick: Atlanta
DALLAS (-3) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 45)
The NFC East champion will be decided – at long last – this week and it is fitting that it will take 17 weeks of action for the arrow of fate to land on one of these franchises. The Giants and Cowboys have a simple task this week: win. That outcome, coupled with a Washington loss to Philadelphia, is the only way either of these teams can secure a spot. The Cowboys have endured a rough ride this season, with Mike McCarthy and his charges taking a great deal of flak for their lackluster performances. All of that would be quickly forgotten if they took care of business here, and Vegas seems to think they have a clear edge.
And yet the Giants have gone 8-5 ATS this season as the underdog, despite losing their last three. Joe Judge has a major coaching job on his hands this week: motivating his team to put together one final complete performance, something that has been sorely lacking recently, to upend a bitter rival and possibly secure an improbable division title in the process. Predicting a Giants fightback is a dicey proposition, but the defense has enough to at least keep things interesting.
Pick: New York
NY JETS at NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) (Over/Under 43)
The Jets faithful were in something of a funk last week as the Jaguars officially secured the number one overall pick, even after it seemed for the longest time that Gang Green would have first dibs on Trevor Lawrence. Not so fast. Sam Darnold has quietly gone about his business with efficiency the last couple of games and has given the Jets a reason to at least pause in their offseason evaluations. Could they convince themselves that Darnold, still just 23 years old, could be the answer?
Cam Newton’s benching on Monday Night Football could have been the final straw for him in New England, but with Bill Belichick, it is hard to be certain. Newton’s lack of accuracy and feel for the short to intermediate patterns have consistently doomed the offense to punts and inefficiency all season. That the Patriots are laying 3.5 points at home against a talent-poor roster such as New York’s is telling.
Pick: New England
MINNESOTA (-6) at DETROIT (Over/Under 54.5)
Mike Zimmer’s team has nothing to play for except pride in this dead rubber NFC North season-closing affair. The effort in New Orleans last week was admirable, but Alvin Kamara’s six touchdowns put a quick stop to that. Undoubtedly the Vikings will be a trendy offseason team – many of the pieces are in place – but this will be a telling offseason for the direction of the franchise and some brave decisions will have to be made. Laying six points on the road is fair considering the putrid performance put forth by the Lions last week.
Matthew Stafford’s future with the Lions is very much in doubt and this could be his final outing for the team that drafted him first overall after a dismal 0-16 campaign. Stafford insists he wants to be out there for this week’s clash with Minnesota, but much will depend on what the men in white coats say about his ankle. Even if Stafford suits up, honestly, he will likely struggle in an offense that has been wildly inconsistent and, at times, difficult to watch.
Pick: Minnesota
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (-10) (Over/Under 42.5)
The Browns could end their 18-year playoff drought on Sunday against the team that has kept them down for so long. And how sweet it would be for first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and the new-look Browns. Vegas has them as seven-point favorites, with the Steelers unlikely to improve their standing with a victory (they will host a wild-card game), and this is an excellent spot to bounce back for the home team. And yet the pressure will be on for the long-suffering franchise to cross their t’s and dot their I’s in a pressure-cooker atmosphere.
A victory is the most straightforward route, but the Browns can seal a playoff spot even if they lose. In all, there are eight scenarios. The Steelers could provide quite a bit of resistance to keep their AFC North ‘baby brother’ on the outside looking in, however, with their defense likely to be firm against a run-heavy attack. Weather is the X-factor that could tilt things in Cleveland’s favor, but do not expect a good old-fashioned points fest. That would not be in keeping with the AFC North brand, a brand the Browns will need to lean on to make a giant leap forward. The news that Mason Rudolph will start for Pittsburgh will certainly help their cause.
Pick: Pittsburgh
BALTIMORE (-11.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 44.5)
The Bengals have become the spoilers of this late-season period, covering spreads of a touchdown or more in back-to-back weeks – and winning both games in the process. The rotating cast of characters at quarterback has not diminished the offense’s efficiency, with Brandon Allen putting on a show last week in Houston. Tee Higgins has been a standout player as a rookie but will face a tougher test in the Ravens secondary.
Baltimore has covered five straight games and is 7-1 ATS in their past eight against AFC North opponents. For the Bengals, that is a concerning trend. The Ravens have multiple paths to a playoff berth, the simplest of which is a win. The defense has allowed 17 or fewer points in three of the past four games, while Lamar Jackson has put some of his earlier season blips behind him. This should be a businesslike game for Baltimore, who has everything on the line. What they do in January, of course, is up for discussion, but there is no doubting the strength of their regular season credentials.
Pick: Baltimore
MIAMI at BUFFALO (-2.5) (Over/Under 44.5)
With the Chiefs already having sewed up the bye, the Bills will have to host a wild-card game – but judging on their recent form, that will not faze Sean McDermott’s squad. Josh Allen is playing like the best version of himself, limiting mistakes and utilizing the full breadth of his talents to routinely decimate defenses. The Buffalo defense has held up their end of the bargain as well, supplementing an offense that could match their AFC rivals Kansas City blow for blow should they meet in the postseason.
For Miami, this will be a serious test and one must wonder how long they will have to face the Buffalo starters. A victory is enough for the Dolphins, while a loss by any of Baltimore, Cleveland, or Indianapolis would also see them secure a postseason berth. The chatter this week will be about the quarterback position, with Ryan Fitzpatrick making a strong case last week that he should be the man in charge while Tua Tagovailoa learns the ropes. Brian Flores has a decision on his hands, but the -2.5 line tells us that Vegas expects Buffalo to rest its starters.
Pick: Miami
SEATTLE (-4.5) at SAN FRANCISCO (Over/Under 46.5)
There is still a remote possibility for Seattle to seal a first-round bye – a win here plus losses by the Packers and Saints would do the trick – but it is highly unlikely. Still, Pete Carroll will relish having a carrot to hang in front of his hungry team entering the final week of the season. The defensive display against the Rams was one of Seattle’s best of the season and hearkened back somewhat to the old Legion of Boom days: physical, unrelenting play combined with a ball-control offense.
The 49ers played spoiler last week in their road win over the Cardinals and could repeat the feat this time around. Kyle Shanahan’s team has gone 4-3 ATS as the underdog this campaign, and there is every reason to believe they can match their NFC West rivals to produce another classic in this rivalry. Robert Saleh’s defense has the ingredients to cause havoc for Russell Wilson and an offense that has really skidded to a halt in recent weeks.
Pick: San Francisco
ARIZONA at LA RAMS (-1) (Over/Under 39.5)
In what is essentially an early playoff match-up, the winner of this game will punch their postseason ticket; the loser, meanwhile, will have to watch from the golf course in January. A Chicago loss would also send the Rams to the playoffs. On the field, the Cardinals have not exactly been the high-flying operation that was advertised prior to the season. Kliff Kingsbury’s arrow as a head coach has trended more sideways than up and Kyler Murray’s play has been eye-popping on the box score but otherwise, nothing to write home about.
Therein lies the opportunity for the Rams. An NFL.com analyst called the Cardinals offense "narcoleptic’" a perfect description for their penchant for falling asleep at key moments. Sean McVay’s men have been the better team over the entire season without a shadow of a doubt and, despite Jared Goff’s ineffectiveness at times, have leaned on their defense to take care of business. The line for this game is all over the place, but the Rams should get the edge.
Pick: Los Angeles
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (-14) (Over/Under 50)
Having already secured the number one pick in the NFL Draft, the Jaguars fans could be forgiven for doing some daydreaming about the prospects of Trevor Lawrence. But before that, there is business to attend to in the form of a clash with the Indianapolis Colts, who have been made 14-point favorites at home. Little, therefore, is expected of the Jaguars, who have been competitive in spurts over the past few weeks. Mike Glennon will likely get the start as one chapter in Jacksonville’s story closes.
The real story here, of course, is the Colts. One win away from the playoffs – with some help in some scenarios – their destiny is in their hands. A win coupled with a Titans loss would seal the AFC South crown. The players will still be kicking themselves after a collapse in Pittsburgh last week, but Frank Reich is sure to clear up the errors and urge the players to take out their frustration on their division rival. Fourteen points is steep, but this is the type of game it is made for.
Pick: Indianapolis
TENNESSEE (-7.5) at HOUSTON (Over/Under 56)
There are multiple scenarios for the Titans to clinch the division and a playoff berth, but the simplest is notching a W in Houston. The task in Green Bay last week was a tall one, but it served to remind the viewing public just how fragile the Titans defense can be and how much of a speed bump that unit that proves to be in the postseason, should they make it. Fortunately, a season-ending assignment against Houston should not be too foreboding a task.
The Texans will turn the page and look forward to 2021 – sans a high first-round pick – as franchise stalwart J.J. Watt continues to deliver blistering honesty in his appraisal of the team. There is no question that Houston’s fortunes have been tossed into a blender and unceremoniously discarded this season, with devastating losses becoming almost normal. Deshaun Watson will anchor the team here, and there is a chance he could pull his guys with him to play spoiler.
Pick: Houston
LAS VEGAS (-2.5) at DENVER (Over/Under 51)
The Raiders endured yet another late-season collapse, bringing back memories of 2019 and bringing into question Jon Gruden’s ability to keep his team focused all season long. There were many factors that went into the slowdown, but at some point, it appeared they lost their edge – and especially on defense. Rebuilding that side of the ball will be at the forefront of Mike Mayock’s mind this offseason. And it is the offseason that will be the focus of both these teams, with nothing on this game except pride.
Denver, too, has many questions to answer this offseason and will have to take a hard look at Drew Lock this offseason to determine whether he, and not one of the promising passers in the NFL Draft, is the path forward. This week’s tilt should be a reasonably entertaining one, with both teams eager to make a lasting impression into a long offseason. What Vegas has done to deserve being road favorites is uncertain, but taking the points appears to be a decent call here, though you should wait to get +3 if you can.
Pick: Denver
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-4) at KANSAS CITY (Over/Under 44)
With the Chiefs sitting all their starters, this game has become something of a sideshow on the Week 17 slate. Kansas City’s momentum has stalled of late, and one has to wonder if they will be able to recapture that form in the postseason after weeks of rest. While that debate rages on, Andy Reid will be happy to wrap some of his players in cotton wool and focus on the bigger challenge ahead: repeating as Super Bowl champions.
For the Chargers, the maiden voyage of Justin Herbert has been a roaring success and has transformed the franchise for the foreseeable future. He has taken his lumps along the way, but he has been a revelation in general. An exclamation point to finish the season – and possibly keep Anthony Lynn in house for the sake of continuity – would not be the worst thing.
Pick: Los Angeles
GREEN BAY (-5.5) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 51.5)
The Packers will clinch a first-round bye with a victory, while the Bears need a win to get into the postseason. The stakes are high for these storied rivals, and this game promises to be a wild ride. The hope for the neutral is that Mitchell Trubisky can parlay his recent success into another respectable performance, with Aaron Rodgers certain to work his magic on the other side. How Matt Nagy chooses to approach the game plan – will he go heavy on David Montgomery or let Trubisky loose? – will be fascinating to watch.
Green Bay is laying 5.5 points as the road team, a sign of respect from Vegas sharps and a reminder of how formidable this team could be. Securing a bye is pivotal for the Packers, but homefield in Lambeau as the temperatures plummet is the key element of it. Inviting teams like the Saints to play in the frigid conditions is a recipe for success for the cool-headed Rodgers and company. It is easier to lay the points with Trubisky on the other side.
Pick: Green Bay
NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) at CAROLINA (Over/Under 48)
The Panthers have gone 8-3 ATS as the underdog this season, a cover rate of 72.7%, as Teddy Bridgewater and company continue to find a way to stay competitive, even in defeat. Last week proved to be an armchair ride in many respects for Carolina as Dwayne Haskins imploded, making their task much easier. Still, Bridgewater was not sharp at times and the Saints should like their chances to take advantage. This is something of a mirror match-up, with Bridgewater and the Panthers running a similar offense and, by extension, knowing the tendencies. Matt Rhule will be keen to sign off 2020 with a victory, with the rebuild set to continue this offseason.
The Saints need a win, a Green Bay loss, and a Seattle win to secure a first-round bye, so do not expect Sean Payton to let his foot off the gas here. Carolina’s defense has shown some spirit of late, but generally, the unit has been soft against the run. Drew Brees, if he plays like his usual self, should be confident of picking them apart. The 6.5-point line gives some pause, as the Panthers would be appealing at the +7 mark, but the underdog kings might just be able to pull it off one more time.
Pick: Carolina
(Sunday Night) WASHINGTON (-1.5) at PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 42.5)
The book has closed on Dwayne Haskins in Washington, with the former first-round pick clearing waivers this week as well. His performance last week was the last that the fans of the Football Team will witness ever again, with a possibility that Alex Smith could return this week. Ron Rivera will have his team ready to roll regardless, with a win here securing a division title in a forgettable year overall for the NFC East.
Philadelphia will look to play spoiler and a victory here, coupled with a Giants win, would give the men from New York a division title. Jalen Hurts had some growing pains last week, and he could face more adversity this week against an unforgiving Washington pass rush with everything to play for. Motivation will be key here, so it will be fascinating to see how Doug Pederson’s charges play with nothing on the line except pride.
Pick: Washington
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
It proved to be a disappointing week for the Best Bets, with a 1-3 finish. Week 17 can be wacky, so we have to remain mindful and bet accordingly. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 GREEN BAY (-5.5) at CHICAGO
- 2 CAROLINA (+6.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
- 3 WASHINGTON (-1.5) at PHILADELPHIA
- 4 NY GIANTS (+3) vs. DALLAS
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 17 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS NFC EAST DOUBLE (2.42-1 ODDS)
- NY GIANTS (+3)
- WASHINGTON (-1.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG SPOILERS (9.5-1 ODDS):
- SAN FRANCISCO – FOR THE WIN
- HOUSTON – FOR THE WIN
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM ATS/SU SPECIAL (4-1 ODDS)
- GREEN BAY (-5.5)
- CAROLINA (+6.5)
- INDIANAPOLIS - FOR THE WIN
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, Carolina, Washington, NY Giants, San Francisco
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 6-10
- SEASON OVERALL: 121-114-3 (51.4%)
- BEST BETS: 33-29-2, last week 1-3 (53.9%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 39-36-1, last week 2-3 (52.3%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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