Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with one to three Stars, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
A disappointing week for this column, as things continue to surprise and shock as the season wears on. With only two weeks to go, it is time to finish on a strong note. A quick thanks to everyone for following the column this year and I hope you have been able to make a tidy profit along the way. Happy Holidays to everyone.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Friday) MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (-7) (Over/Under 52)
The Vikings’ chances of a playoff berth, slim already entering the clash with the Bears, plummeted from 22 percent to just four percent after the crushing defeat. There is a sense that Minnesota’s resurgence, while impressive, would eventually come to an end, but few would have expected a similarly resurgent Mitchell Trubisky to be the driving force behind it. With the organization already having one eye on 2021 given their mid-season trade of Yannick Ngakoue, this test in New Orleans will be a good measuring stick – and nothing more – as the season winds down.
As for the Saints, a victory will guarantee them a playoff spot, according to the New York Times playoff calculator. Their most likely scenario is hosting a wildcard game, with the return of Drew Brees likely to boost their passing game’s efficiency, though Taysom Hill offered something a little different that complemented their defense well. The Saints have covered 60% of games after a loss in the Sean Payton-Brees era. Expect a motivated home team to exorcise the demons of a closely fought battle against the streaking Chiefs.
Pick: New Orleans
(Saturday) TAMPA BAY (-8.5) at DETROIT (Over/Under 54)
The Bucs were on the ropes against the Falcons for long periods but managed to bounce back in a way that has become familiar in the Tom Brady era. Not necessarily in the Tompa era under Bruce Arians, but it is an encouraging sign that the team rallied so strongly in the second half. The 2020 Bucs are an enigmatic team, but they will be as tough an out as any team in the NFC bracket, with a roster capable of giving problems to almost any opponent. This week will serve as something of a tune-up if all goes to plan, with Vegas making the Bucs comfortable road favorites.
Detroit has already turned the page towards a new era of the franchise’s story, and it may not include stalwart passer Matthew Stafford. Things are very much up in the air, with a new head coach and new general manager set to be appointed in due course. For the remaining two games, the current players will be focused on putting on a good show and getting themselves in the ‘shop window’ for the incoming brass. The Lions are 1-3 ATS as home underdogs this season, and the Bucs simply look too motivated and powerful despite the large spread.
Pick: Tampa Bay
(Saturday) SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (-4) (Over/Under 49)
The second Saturday clash features the 49ers, fresh off a loss to the feisty Dallas Cowboys, traveling to their adopted home stadium of State Farm Stadium. This time, however, it will be a Cardinals home game. With Kyle Shanahan’s team officially eliminated from the postseason, this game will be about evaluation and execution as his banged-up team looks forward to 2021 with hope to rekindle the magic of their Super Bowl campaign. These NFC West games generally produce good spectacles, and Arizona’s defense has shown little in the way of shutdown play over this season.
As such, the four-point line for the Cardinals makes sense, though Kyler Murray’s return to form last week gives some pause. Two more victories for his team will all but guarantee a playoff berth, though it will be a tight race to the finish line. The current version of the 49ers may be powerless to resist if Murray gets into a rhythm early on. In what should be a highly entertaining clash, back the team that has playoff aspirations.
Pick: Arizona
(Saturday) MIAMI (-3) at LAS VEGAS (Over/Under 47.5)
The groin strain for Derek Carr has been described as "significant" by national reporters, making him, at best, questionable for this week’s clash with the Dolphins. His continued absence will put Marcus Mariota back in the spotlight after his star turn in relief last Thursday night. While the former Titans passer was by no means perfect, he injected life into a Raiders attack that desperately needed it and could – and really should – have been able to pull out a narrow victory for his team. Las Vegas has gone 2-3 ATS as the home underdogs this season, so this is a spot that the gambling connoisseurs are comfortable making the visitors the favorites.
The Dolphins may not make the postseason even if they win out, with the New York Times playoff calculator putting their chances at 75% with two victories. Even so, the formula is very much working for Brian Flores, and he will be secretly delighted to have gotten one over on his mentor last week to put the Patriots away for 2021. This Saturday showcase against a poor defense will be an excellent chance for Tua Tagovailoa to shine, with the return of Devante Parker certain to boost his confidence and rhythm. Try not to get caught up in the Mariota hype and go with the tried and trusted.
Pick: Miami
CAROLINA at WASHINGTON (-2) (Over/Under 44.5)
Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper made his presence felt again this week, parting ways with general manager Marty Hurney as he looks to install a hand-picked successor to drive Matt Rhule’s plan. A clash with former Panthers head coach Ron Rivera and his Football Team this week will certainly add a spicy subplot, but Carolina has been on a cold streak for a while and cannot seem to get over the hump. The fact that they are only two-point underdogs is eyebrow-raising, but it could be as much to do with the ineffectiveness of Dwayne Haskins.
Washington huffed and puffed but they were eventually swept aside by Seattle last week. The match-up of the Football Team’s front four against the Panthers offensive line is one that the home team should be able to exploit, with Teddy Bridgewater letting himself down in recent times in his perception of pressure. With the Giants on a losing streak, all Washington must do is take care of business and they will be hosting a wildcard game.
Pick: Washington
INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH (-2.5) (Over/Under 46)
The Colts are faced with, essentially, a win and get in scenario this week against the Steelers, who are suddenly looking like frauds despite their impressive record. In a somewhat predictable turn of events last Sunday, the Colts were once again taken down to the wire against a familiar foe, Houston, but a well-timed fumble doomed the Texans. It will be fascinating to see how Frank Reich chooses to approach the Steelers defense, given that Philip Rivers’ mobility is extremely limited. A well-designed attack based on short passes and the ground game will be the first port of call.
This line may shift in the coming days if the national conversation tilts towards Pittsburgh’s failings. Ben Roethlisberger inspired little confidence on Monday night and looked to be the less dynamic of the two quarterbacks on the field. When that other quarterback is Ryan Finley, you know you have problems. Mike Tomlin generally gets his players up for the fight after a disappointment, but the recent trends are not promising. In what could be a defensive struggle, lay the points with the Steelers and give them one final shot.
Pick: Pittsburgh
ATLANTA at KANSAS CITY (-10.5) (Over/Under 53.5)
The Falcons let another lead slip against the Bucs on Sunday, a trend that will likely doom Raheem Morris to being let go in January as the franchise seeks to turn the page yet again. Regardless, the effort level was still high and there is every reason to believe that Matt Ryan can keep things respectable against a Chiefs defense that has its weaknesses. Atlanta has gone 5-4 ATS as the underdog this campaign.
Patrick Mahomes II added yet another impressive victory to his accumulating list of them on Sunday, besting the Drew Brees-led Saints in the Superdome with a virtuoso display of passing and running. Mahomes seems to have the answer to every problem that is thrown at him and shouldn’t be fazed by what the Falcons have to offer. While this may not be a walk in the park for the Chiefs, they should be able to get the job done. The number one seed is in their control and they are unlikely to let it slip. However, the 10.5-point line – especially after such a taxing affair in New Orleans – seems a little much. There may be a slight let down that Atlanta could pounce on.
Pick: Atlanta
CHICAGO (-7.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 47)
The Bears are alive, ladies and gentlemen. However, even by winning out, they would have just a 62% chance of making the playoffs. Matt Nagy, if you asked him, would probably take that considering how poorly his team slumped during the middle of the season. Nick Foles has given way to Mitchell Trubisky, with the much-maligned passer finding a bit of rhythm and perhaps playing with more freedom given that the Bears are unlikely to resign him. David Montgomery and the defense are complementing each other well, and both should have success against the hapless Jaguars.
Gardner Minshew is back in at quarterback, but the Jaguars are headed straight for the first pick in the NFL Draft (and likely Trevor Lawrence) after the Jets’ improbable win against the Rams. Minshew gives the Jaguars the best chance to win against the Bears, but his freewheeling style in the pocket may be a recipe for disaster against a stout Chicago front seven. The 7.5-point line is enough to err on the side of the home team, but that may look foolish in retrospect.
Pick: Jacksonville
CINCINNATI at HOUSTON (-9) (Over/Under 45)
The under has been the prime play for these two teams over the past several games, with both going 4-1 in the last five. In what many would dub a dead rubber match, with ostensibly nothing but pride to play for, the Texans look to be the sounder bet – and Vegas agrees to the tune of a nine-point line. Indeed, with the Bengals coming off a thrilling win over their old rivals Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, this is an excellent spot for the Texans to take advantage of any, ahem, post-game celebrations from the visitors.
Deshaun Watson should be able to make something out of nothing, depending on the health of his receiving corps. With Jim Caldwell being interviewed for the head coaching role, Houston’s brass is ahead of the hiring cycle and should be able to turn the page quickly. In these final two games, for the Texans players, it is about making a good impression and finishing on a high note. The Bengals are 2-4 ATS in their last six and could drop to 2-5 here.
Pick: Houston
NY GIANTS at BALTIMORE (-10.5) (Over/Under 45)
Despite losing to the Browns on Sunday night, the Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games, a mark that many teams would be proud of. That type of record would tend to inspire confidence in the gambling public, but not necessarily with this team. After a week of praise and adulation from the masses, the Giants have dropped two games, and watching them move the ball has been like squeezing blood from a stone. Daniel Jones could return this week but may still not be confident enough to open up as a runner.
The Ravens have been done a huge favor by their closing schedule, tilts against the Giants and the Bengals next week – both eminently winnable. That would make them the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs and a real threat to cause an upset or two. The 10.5-point line flatters them somewhat, and the Giants are 6-0 as the road underdogs this season. It is a tough pill to swallow, but the G-Men have enough about them defensively to keep this close.
Pick: New York
CLEVELAND (-9.5) at NY JETS (Over/Under 46.5)
A significant carrot hangs tantalizingly for the Browns in Week 16; a win coupled with a Steelers loss would vault them into the number two seed. While that playoff position does not hold the same appeal as it used to (with no bye attached), it would allow Kevin Stefanski’s men to avoid the Chiefs. It proved to be a businesslike performance against the Giants, but it was enough to get over the hump. A 9.5-point line is more than fair against a Jets team that could be poised for a let down following their first win of the season.
In previous iterations of the Browns, this would have been a prime spot for a slip-up, a mistake very much in keeping with the franchise’s DNA, but that has changed. Not this Browns team. The new, sleek Browns should be able to take care of their business against a Jets team that is still coming down from the high of last week. The Jets have covered five of their last eight games this season, but 9.5 is just enough to take a shot on the visitors.
Pick: Cleveland
DENVER at LA CHARGERS (-3) (Over/Under 48.5)
In yet another Week 16 dead rubber game, the main attraction will be the duel between young quarterbacks on ostensibly different early-career trajectories. Justin Herbert continues to produce marvelous moments and is well ahead of the rookie developmental curve that was expected of him. The victory over the Raiders, though a little unusual, was a major step forward for a franchise that has turned losing close games into an art form.
Denver could not match the power and pace of the Bills last week and face another tough challenge this week. Herbert may not have the dynamism of Josh Allen, but he is more than capable of being aggressive and taking his shots downfield against a patchwork secondary. The three-point line smacks of Vegas throwing their hands in the air. Drew Lock could keep things interesting until the end, but the more consistent quarterback deserves the nod here.
Pick: Los Angeles
PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) at DALLAS (Over/Under 49)
The Eagles need to finish with two victories to have any chance at securing a postseason berth, but it is a remote possibility at best. The loss to Arizona represented an encouraging moment for the franchise, a glimpse into the possibilities with Jalen Hurts – and not Carson Wentz – at the helm. Which direction the franchise will turn has yet to be determined, but Hurts is doing his chances no harm. A road victory against the bitter rival Cowboys would be his banner moment.
The Cowboys showed some spirit last week and still have approximately a 10% chance of making the dance if they win their remaining two games. Home underdogs against the Eagles, this could be one of the more sneakily entertaining clashes of the week. The Philadelphia front four should be able to edge the match-up against the Dallas offensive line, and that – combined with Hurts’ ability to extend drives – may be enough.
Pick: Philadelphia
LA RAMS at SEATTLE (-2) (Over/Under 47)
The Rams are all but in the playoffs, while the Seahawks have already sealed their spot. Nevertheless, this clash will be decisive in determining the NFC West champion for this season after a wild season that has seen the two teams duke it out tooth and nail. Los Angeles has won five of the last six in this series straight up, with the last two meetings particularly comfortable on the scoreboard. The Rams defense has the formula to stifle and smother the Seahawks offense if they are on their game.
As for the Seahawks, a win last week came – though after a bit of a struggle. The momentum for Seattle has been stop-start for the past few weeks, but they have every reason to believe they can go on a run. While Russell Wilson may not be able to cook to his satisfaction in this clash, Seattle will not go down without a fight. A difficult one to call, but the -2 is appealing.
Pick: Seattle
(Sunday Night) TENNESSEE at GREEN BAY (-3.5) (Over/Under 56)
The Titans have covered five of their last seven games as an underdog and generally have been a team trending towards the ‘over’. Since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter, they have gone 21-6 to the over, in fact. The trends point towards a fascinating Sunday night clash between two playoff-bound teams. With weather certain to be a factor, Tennessee will likely rely on Derrick Henry to wear down the Packers defense. Indeed, had the game script gone in their favor last week, Carolina might have done the same.
But on the other side of the match-up is MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers, who has been simply unstoppable this campaign. He had a quiet outing last time out, but the ground game and defense picked up the slack. The number one seed is within their control, so a victory here is critical. In fact, a victory here and a Seattle loss would seal it for them. Matt LaFleur’s men have everything to play for, so even the 3.5-point line is not enough to discourage a lean towards the Pack.
Pick: Green Bay
(Monday Night) BUFFALO (-7) at NEW ENGLAND (Over/Under 45)
The Bills have ripped the AFC East crown from the long-time holder Patriots and suddenly the balance of power has shifted in the division, perhaps for a long time. The range of outcomes is wide for Buffalo in the playoff picture, from the improbable number one seed to the fourth seed. As such, a victory here would be useful – but not essential. One must wonder if the Bills will take their foot off the pedal a little bit.
Even so, the Patriots offense has so little to offer, making the task more manageable for the Bills to get another statement win. Bill Belichick’s team is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog this season, so the slight lean must go to the home team. Belichick, after all, will not go quietly despite losing out on a postseason berth.
Pick: New England
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
It proved to be a disappointing week for the Best Bets, with a 1-3 finish. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, we must remain focused and stick to the process. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 ATLANTA (+10.5) at KANSAS CITY
- 2 ARIZONA (-4) vs. SAN FRANCISCO
- 3 MIAMI (-3) at LAS VEGAS
- 4 NEW ENGLAND (+7) vs. BUFFALO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 16 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM, 6-PT DOUBLE (0.82-1 ODDS)
- NEW ENGLAND (+7)
- MIAMI (-3)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (6.35-1 ODDS):
- PITTSBURGH – FOR THE WIN
- NEW ENGLAND – FOR THE WIN
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM ATS/SU SPECIAL (4-1 ODDS)
- MIAMI (-3)
- PITTSBURGH (-2.5)
- CLEVELAND – FOR THE WIN
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Atlanta, Arizona, Miami, New England, Green Bay
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 6-10
- SEASON OVERALL: 115-104-3 (52.8%)
- BEST BETS: 32-26-2, last week 1-2-1 (54.2%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 37-33-1, last week 1-3-1 (53.1%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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