Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Home teams went 3-11 against the spread (ATS) and 4-10 straight up (SU) in a stunning turn of affairs that further underlined how home-field advantage has essentially been nullified in these pandemic-hit times. Notable underdog victories ATS came from the Giants (+11), Washington (+5.5), and Cleveland (+4). It was an excellent week for this column, with a personal ATS record of 10-4 (the Dallas/Baltimore game will not be counted as there was no line on it entering the week).
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) NEW ENGLAND at LA RAMS (-6) (Over/Under 44.5)
When you smack an opponent in such a comprehensive fashion on the road, putting up 45 points while your quarterback did not even top 100 yards passing, that, my friends, is a win with an exclamation point. The Patriots outclassed the Chargers on Sunday, but they will need to outclass the rest of the AFC field and get some help to make the postseason. At 6-6, theirs is an uphill climb. Bill Belichick opted to keep his team in Los Angeles for the short week, but the challenge this time around looks a little more daunting.
The Rams are 0-2 ATS and SU against AFC East teams this season but notably have gone 3-1 ATS and SU in their last four games. Momentum is building, and Seattle’s unexpected loss to the Giants has put the Rams back on top of the NFC West. The last time Jared Goff had to contend with Belichick’s defensive wizardry did not go well. It was Super Bowl 53 and Sean McVay’s team could only muster three points. The cast of characters for the Patriots has changed more than that of the Rams, but there is one constant: Belichick. The under, a perfect 4-0 in the Patriots’ last four games, looks like a solid way to approach this game. However, something about the six-point line does not pass the sniff test, even with New England’s offensive inefficiencies.
Pick: New England
MINNESOTA at TAMPA BAY (-6.5) (Over/Under 52.5)
The Vikings have gone 3-1 ATS as the road underdog this season, and the market is clearly still not on board with Kirk Cousins despite the blistering pace he has been setting of late. As things stand, Mike Zimmer’s team holds a playoff spot, though the grip is tenuous. The most intriguing aspect of this contest will be how much Cousins can do; undoubtedly opportunities will present themselves downfield against a Bucs defense that has been torched in recent games. Dalvin Cook will get his touches more as a receiver than a runner given the strength of the Bucs’ front seven, forming the foundation of the game plan for the visitors.
The Bucs have been reasonably solid protecting Tom Brady this season and will have worked on things during the bye to perfect their execution down the stretch. At 7-5, this is a team on the verge of the postseason – and yet there is a certain malaise surrounding the whole operation. Bruce Arians’ team has gone 1-3 ATS as a home favorite this season, and yet Vegas has faith they can exorcise the demons of recent performances and put on a show. With so much on the line for the Vikings, however, the 6.5-point line is hard to get behind.
Pick: Minnesota
ARIZONA (-2.5) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 45)
At some point, Vegas should learn their lesson. This will be the 11th time this season that the Giants have been made underdogs; they have gone 8-2 ATS over that period and have lost games by an average of 3.7 points. The Joe Judge regime is starting to find its mojo – and in a major way if the victory over Seattle is any indication. The defensive masterclass against Russell Wilson and company will have to be repeated to corral Kyler Murray, though there is a sense that all is not well with the Cardinals quarterback’s health. If the Giants can limit Murray’s movement out of the pocket, their back-end defenders should be able to take advantage of any errant throws.
Losers of three straight, the Cardinals need to stop the skid – and in a hurry. Kliff Kingsbury’s coaching decisions combined with Murray’s struggles have put the team in a hole that they may not be able to dig out of. If the offense cannot get into a rhythm against a ferocious Giants defense, this could be a long day. All the numbers and trends point towards the home team, who can make it five wins in a row.
Pick: New York
KANSAS CITY (-7.5) at MIAMI (Over/Under 49)
The Chiefs have gone 5-6 ATS as favorite this season, as the points-spread tax continues to be assessed on them. With Pittsburgh falling to Washington, suddenly the path to securing the number one seed is wide open for the Chiefs – and they look unlikely to stumble along the way. Patrick Mahomes II is playing at an MVP level and should not be cowed by Miami’s defense despite its ability to shut down opponents regularly. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see what Brian Flores has cooked up for the presumptive league MVP. Perhaps there are some tips to be gleaned from Denver’s excellent defensive performance against the Chiefs last week.
The Dolphins currently occupy the sixth seed in the AFC playoffs but can take nothing for granted with a host of teams on their tail. The ideal formula for Tua Tagovailoa in this game is to play under control and hope that the Chiefs, with their explosive offense, do not force him into an arms race with Mahomes. There would only be one winner. This will be an excellent measuring stick for the 2020 Dolphins, and the chances are that they can keep it close.
Pick: Miami
TENNESSEE (-7.5) at JACKSONVILLE (Over/Under 53.5)
The Titans are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games as favorites, so this is not necessarily a spot they want to find themselves in. The Browns sliced and diced the Titans last week, making it look like child’s play. Mike Vrabel, a defensive-leaning head coach, must be irate with how his unit is playing. The playoffs are just a few weeks away and the Titans are locked in as the fourth seed, but right now they have an Achilles heel – and the whole league knows what it is.
Jaguars quarterback Mike Glennon continues to produce game efforts in defeats, though his bravery is often offset by boneheaded decisions. Jacksonville is 6-5 ATS this season as underdogs, with their average margin of defeat at 7.5 points which, curiously, is the exact line for this contest. With the over going 4-0 in Tennessee’s last four games, and considering how Jacksonville has been hanging tough against nearly every opponent, leaning that way is a good option. Much like my logic last week against Cleveland, the Titans should not be laying that many points – and especially not on the road.
Pick: Jacksonville
DALLAS (-3.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 43.5)
Incredibly, the Bengals have gone 4-0-1 ATS at home this season, though that number is skewed by the heroics of the injured Joe Burrow. With Brandon Allen at the controls, this attack is lower wattage and cannot be relied upon – or could it? The arrival of the lackadaisical defensive stylings of the 2020 Cowboys to the Queen City could augur well for a Bengals offense that has been bereft of ideas since their franchise signal-caller went down.
The Cowboys tucked their tails between their legs and left Baltimore with a loss on Tuesday night, essentially ending their slim playoff hopes. The disgust and ire were dripping from Troy Aikman’s voice during the telecast as the former Cowboys great failed to comprehend how far this team had fallen. It is difficult to place faith in either struggling team in this match-up, so the best play might be to fade it completely. If you must take a side, make it the home team.
Pick: Cincinnati
HOUSTON (-2.5) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 46)
J.J. Watt’s befuddled expression said it all in the final moments of last week’s heartbreaker against the Colts. A fumbled exchange yards away from pay dirt seemed to sum up the misfortunes that had befallen the Texans all season, consigning them to a 4-8 record and a change of head coach. Deshaun Watson pulled out all the stops, but the bubble has been burst on any tiny shot at the playoffs. A road trip to Chicago represents a prime spot for a let-down with temperatures set to be 35F.
The Bears have now lost six straight games and appear poised to be one of the most disappointing teams of the season when we look back. The hot start they enjoyed has fizzled into nothing. Even with high-quality defenses such as they have, there comes a point when the offense fails to hold up its end of the bargain to such an extent that the defense breaks. While Mitchell Trubisky did not exactly light the world on fire against Detroit, he appeared to do enough. The Bears defense, on this occasion, failed to hold up its end. Matt Nagy’s seat is getting hotter, but the Houston defense is not a unit to be feared by any means. If you can, hold off to see if this line goes to +3, but even at +2.5, this is a good spot for the home team to rebound.
Pick: Chicago
DENVER at CAROLINA (-3.5) (Over/Under 47)
The Panthers have gone 0-2 ATS in their two games as home favorites this season, but the probable return of Christian McCaffrey gives them a boost that no number can account for. A much-welcome bye week has been hit by a series of coronavirus infections – including D.J. Moore – in the Carolina camp, forcing some sportsbooks to take this game off the board. Presuming this game goes ahead and the core of the Panthers team is available, the expectation is that they can cause problems for Drew Lock and create enough offense to squeak out a victory.
Denver’s season may be over, but they played with a lot of pride in Kansas City and showed how shutdown their defense can be. Even with Lock’s struggles, it is that strong defensive base that will be the primary concern for Matt Rhule as he prepares his team this week. If the Panthers are in any way sleepy after the bye week, the Broncos will pounce.
Pick: Denver
NY JETS at SEATTLE (-13.5) (Over/Under 47)
Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams did it his way – to the very end. The organization parted ways with the veteran coach this week, likely a reprisal for the decision to send an all-out blitz on the final play against the Raiders. Despite the doom and gloom surrounding the franchise, however, the players are not giving up. One wonders whether, after such a performance last week, there is a let-down on the cards against a superior opponent in Seattle. The Jets have gone just 4-7 ATS as underdogs this season.
The Seahawks currently occupy the fifth seed in the playoffs and will be keen to put the forgettable loss to the G-Men behind them. There is a sense, even at 8-4, that Seattle is barely getting by in recent games and Russell Wilson, rather than cooking, is perhaps just picking up his apron after misplacing it. Certainly, this team can get on a run down the stretch – and it starts this week. Wilson should be chomping at the bit to chop up this Jets secondary and serve up a ninth win for the Hawks.
Pick: Seattle
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) at LAS VEGAS (Over/Under 50.5)
The Colts have covered in four of their last five away games, which goes some way to explaining why they are road favorites in Vegas. The plantar plate injury that Philip Rivers is carrying will further limit the movement of an already immobile passer, making the task easier for blitzing defenses to get to a spot. Fortunately for the Colts, their offensive line is well equipped to deal with that, and the Raiders seem unlikely to cause too many problems with their pass rush.
It is a simple formula for Las Vegas: put up or shut up. The last-second victory in New Jersey last week did little to paper over the increasingly obvious cracks in the façade of Jon Gruden’s team. In a game that may come down to fine margins, the over – which has gone 8-3-1 for the Raiders this season – is an excellent play if you prefer to avoid the side. Indianapolis should have little trouble moving the ball, so it is hard to look past them.
Pick: Indianapolis
WASHINGTON at SAN FRANCISCO (-3) (Over/Under 43.5)
The Washington Football Team defied all the odds to beat Pittsburgh on Monday, with Alex Smith rubberstamping his Comeback Player of the Year credentials. Despite losing offensive lynchpin Antonio Gibson early, Ron Rivera’s team clawed and battled on both sides of the ball. This team is finally beginning to take on the personality of their head coach: resolute, confident, and tough. The line moved a point and a half in this clash after the Washington win and the San Francisco loss, with the 49ers originally laying -4.5.
Kyle Shanahan’s team did not disgrace themselves against a superior Bills team, but the limitations of Nick Mullens are plain for all to see. This has a knock-on effect of drive-killing overthrows, missed passes on underneath patterns that could have led to long gains and much, much more. Normally, it is unwise to wager on the team when the line has shifted so much in their favor. Hopefully, you were able to get the Football Team at +4.5, but the +3 is still very appealing in what should be a toss-up.
Pick: Washington
NEW ORLEANS (-7) at PHILADELPHIA (Over/Under 45.5)
Who will put a halt to the New Orleans winning streak? They have reeled off nine victories in a row and are showing no signs of slowing down. Drew Brees could return to the line-up this week, supplanting Taysom Hill, who has been exceptionally good in relief. How Sean Payton chooses to utilize both quarterbacks will be a fascinating subplot in what should otherwise be a straightforward game for the visitors. The Saints defense will have to prepare for the unknown factor of Jalen Hurts, who will be making his first start for the Eagles.
Despite that bold move by Doug Pederson, the line has not moved, an indication of how little the impact of losing Carson Wentz is perceived in Vegas. Hurts should be able to provide a little bit of a boost for a flagging Eagles attack, but New Orleans’ defense is one of the best units in the league and will give him all he can handle. The under has been money for these teams in recent games, with the Eagles hitting it in the last six and the Saints in the last five.
Pick: New Orleans
ATLANTA (-2.5) at LA CHARGERS (Over/Under 50)
One of the sneakier lines of the week sees Atlanta laying points on the road in Los Angeles. It is an example of one of those too-good-to-be-true lines that can sometimes lull us into a false sense of security. And yet, the Falcons have turned the corner since Raheem Morris took over, going 4-3 SU and ATS over that period. Matt Ryan will face resistance from a Chargers defense that, on its day, can create chaos. The problem is that those days are few and far between.
Justin Herbert endured his worst outing as a pro last week against the Patriots, as the Bill Belichick game plan confused him and forced him into errant throws. Special teams, the fatal flaw of the Chargers, delivered the coup de gras. Atlanta’s defense has been feisty in recent weeks and performed well last week in holding down the Saints offense at times. The lean here is to the visiting team to play the more solid football and secure a narrow win.
Pick: Atlanta
GREEN BAY (-7.5) at DETROIT (Over/Under 55)
The Lions have covered in their last three games at Ford Field, a statistic as bizarre as the circumstances of Detroit’s comeback last week. Unlike Chicago, however, Green Bay will not be so kind with giving away the football. Matthew Stafford will be dropping back often in this game to keep up in an arms race with MVP contender Aaron Rodgers, so the total of 55 makes some sense. Having gotten the famed ‘fired head coach boost’ last week, however, a let-down is on the cards for the home team.
Green Bay is one game back on the Saints in the NFC playoff picture, so the number one seed is still in play. Matt LaFleur’s team has found a groove and will be determined to keep the momentum going against a divisional foe. The 7.5-point line makes this one a little risky to wager on, but having been obliterated at home just two weeks ago by Deshaun Watson, there is little reason to put faith in the Lions.
Pick: Green Bay
(Sunday Night) PITTSBURGH at BUFFALO (-2.5) (Over/Under 47)
Golf claps should be reserved for Josh Allen’s display against the 49ers, undoubtedly one of the finest of his career. There is a real sense of development, momentum, and clarity within the Bills organization as they close in on the AFC East crown. But the job is not done yet; with Miami just one game back, anything is possible. After Vegas originally had this as Pittsburgh favored by 2.5 points, that line has been flipped on its head. As with the Washington/San Francisco line change, be wary of recency bias in betting markets. The time to wager on this game was early when the Bills were still getting points.
The Steelers were always going to drop a game at some point, but nobody expected it to be against Washington – and at home, no less. Pittsburgh has gone 4-1 ATS as the road team this season, so perhaps this is the perfect spot for them to show off their credentials and bite back. The doubters will be out all week, but Mike Tomlin has gone 43-30 (58.9%) ATS after a loss as Steelers head coach and can use that to motivate his players. Allen is still prone to gaffes, so the Pittsburgh defense could pounce.
Pick: Pittsburgh
(Monday Night) BALTIMORE (-1) at CLEVELAND (Over/Under 45.5)
The Browns have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven and seem to have an inability to truly close out games. The last time these teams met was a bloodbath for the Browns, with the Ravens running all over them. Since then, the fortunes of these teams have gone in different directions. Baker Mayfield performed well against the Titans, but he will need to hit some throws into tight windows this week facing a physical Ravens secondary.
Lamar Jackson got back into his stride on Tuesday night against the Cowboys and could have similar success as a runner this week. It seems to be the primary route for Baltimore to move the ball, considering the inconsistency of their passing attack. Defensively, John Harbaugh’s team will face one of the toughest offensive line/running back combinations in football, and the big question is whether Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can keep this game on script for the home team. In a big spot on Monday night, the lean goes to the home team.
Pick: Cleveland
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
It proved to be a great week for the Best Bets, with a 3-1 finish. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, we must remain focused and stick to the process. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 NY GIANTS (+2.5) vs. ARIZONA
- 2 JACKSONVILLE (+7.5) vs. TENNESSEE
- 3 DENVER (+3.5) at CAROLINA
- 4 PITTSBURGH (+2.5) at BUFFALO
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 14 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.64-1 ODDS)
- DENVER (+3.5)
- PITTSBURGH (+2.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (3.19-1 ODDS):
- NY GIANTS – FOR THE WIN
- CHICAGO – FOR THE WIN
- 3-TEAM TOTAL SPECIAL (2.61-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND/LA RAMS – UNDER 44.5
- NEW ORLEANS/PHILADELPHIA – UNDER 45.5
- DALLAS/CINCINNATI – UNDER 43.5
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM ATS/SU SPECIAL (5-1 ODDS)
- JACKSONVILLE (+7.5)
- NY GIANTS (+2.5)
- NEW ORLEANS – FOR THE WIN
- KANSAS CITY – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: NY Giants, Denver, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Green Bay
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 10-4 (Dallas/Baltimore not included)
- SEASON OVERALL: 103-84-3 (55.4%)
- BEST BETS: 30-21-1, last week 3-1 (59.2%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 36-29-1, last week 4-1 (55.7%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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