Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
A slight improvement in Week 4, with a personal 8-6-1 record, but it is still not enough. The best bets faltered, so we have to be laser-focused entering Week 5 not to be tempted by the wild lines Vegas is throwing at us.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) TAMPA BAY (-6) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 45.5)
The Bucs have steadied the ship after a rough start but barely failed to cover the spread last week against a feisty Chargers team. Interestingly, they have averaged 34.5 points per game at home, but that number drops to 26.5 on the road. Granted, the sample size is not large, but it is worth bearing in mind. Tom Brady seems to be getting into a groove, with his five touchdown strikes last week going to as many different pass catchers. The defense continues to be strong overall, though Justin Herbert showed they can be exploited with an aggressive mindset.
Nick Foles’ first start for the Bears did not go as planned, with Colts head coach Frank Reich accustomed to his style from his days coaching the quarterback. The Colts defense was able to snuff out the threat and suck the life out of the Chicago offense. The game script may follow a similar track on Thursday night, with the Bears offense looking for answers against a formidable defense littered with difference-makers. Vegas makes the Bucs -6 road favorites, meaning they would be favored by -9 on a neutral field. The temptation is to lay the points, but the Bears defense may have reason to believe it can ruffle Brady’s feathers.
Pick: Chicago
LA RAMS (-9) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 46)
Could the Rams be accused of overlooking the Giants this past week, a classic let down game after the mighty effort they summoned against Buffalo? Possibly, but the offense’s struggles will concern Sean McVay, especially considering it came against a lower-tier defense. The offensive line lacked cohesion at times, forcing Jared Goff off rhythm and timing, central tenets of his game. The Rams will need to do a better job of protecting Goff this week against a talented Washington front four.
As their head coach Ron Rivera continues to battle cancer, unfortunately, the on-field product from the Football Team has been less than stellar. Dwayne Haskins got into a rhythm after a slow start against Baltimore, but there is a ceiling to the offense with him at the helm. The prospect of him being pulled is real and could be imminent. Terry McLaurin could pose some problems for the L.A. secondary, while it is encouraging for Washington that rookie Antonio Gibson is getting into gear. Nine points is a generous nod to the Rams, one perhaps too deferential considering last week’s struggle against Big Blue.
Pick: Washington
BUFFALO (-1) at TENNESSEE (Over/Under 49)
The undefeated Bills are scheduled to travel to Tennessee this week for what could be their toughest challenge of this young season. Of course, amid all the Covid-19 positive tests it is easy to forget that the Titans are also without a loss. The Vegas sportsbooks are cagey on providing a line for this one, but Vegas Insider has the Bills as a slight favorite. It is hard to argue against that, as mind-boggling as it may seem to see a former perennial loser as a road favorite against a 3-0 team. Josh Allen is firmly in the hunt for MVP votes and has this offense humming, while the defense is beginning to get into its stride.
The biggest obstacle to the Titans’ preparation this week is the uncertainty around practice and Covid-19 tests. Multiple sources revealed the team recorded no new positive tests on Monday morning, but the league is reportedly investigating whether the team breached coronavirus protocols, according to Adam Schefter. Distractions never serve teams well, especially one of this magnitude. The smart play here is to jump on the Bills before the line moves too much, though keep your wager low as there are still hurdles to be cleared before this game gets the official go-ahead.
Pick: Buffalo
PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH (-7) (Over/Under 47.5)
Boy, did the Eagles need that victory. With some names you have probably never heard of making plays on offense and defense, Carson Wentz and company got the job done – and suddenly, they find themselves tied for first place in the putrid NFC East. Health and cohesion are the biggest bugaboos for the Eagles at this point. In the meantime, Wentz will have to pull rabbits out of his hat. That could be tricky this week against a rested Steelers outfit who were granted an early bye week due to the positive Covid-19 tests of their scheduled opponents last week, Tennessee.
The Pittsburgh pass rush routinely creates havoc, but against an offensive line in major flux it could turn ugly quickly for their cross-state rivals Philadelphia. The Mike Tomlin team DNA has always been that of playing down to your opponents, but the Steelers are unlikely to succumb to that old chestnut after two weeks to prepare. While there might be a bit of rust early, expect Pittsburgh to impose their will and record a convincing win to remind the league of their potency as an AFC powerhouse.
Pick: Pittsburgh
ARIZONA (-7.5) at NY JETS (Over/Under 47)
Since Kliff Kingsbury took over as Arizona’s head coach last season, the team boasts an impressive 6-2-2 (75%) against the spread record as the away team. Vegas has them installed as 7.5-point favorites against the lowly Jets, a line designed to tempt action on both sides – particularly for those still believing in Gang Green. The Cardinals fell to a plucky Panthers outfit last week, a loss that exposed their defensive deficiencies and an offense that, with good defensive discipline, can be found out.
The Jets could certainly take some heart from Carolina’s performance, but they are severely undermanned at the skill positions and Sam Darnold is clearly seeing ghosts at times. There are no moral victories in defeat in the NFL, but the Jets were able to put together a decent performance against Denver in their last outing. A more effective ground attack would go a long way to securing an improbable victory here, with keeping Kyler Murray off the field a priority. In the end, however, the better coach – and I don’t need to identify who that is – will win the day.
Pick: Arizona
LAS VEGAS at KANSAS CITY (-12) (Over/Under 56)
The Chiefs are comfortable as home favorites and have done surprisingly well against the spread in this role. Since Patrick Mahomes II took over as starter in 2018, they are 12-7-1 ATS laying points at home (63.2%) and have recorded an average margin of victory of 12.1 points in those contests. There is little not to like about the 4-0 Chiefs, with their defense bending but not breaking on Monday night. Mahomes, even in a quiet game against defensive guru Bill Belichick, found a way. As did Andy Reid, whose offensive wizardry continues to bamboozle opponents.
It is for the above reasons that the gambling cognoscenti in Las Vegas have made their hometown team 12-point underdogs in Arrowhead. This is a classic example of the gurus in the desert saying they have had enough of Kansas City covering, which they have done 66.7% of the time since 2018. The Derek Carr-led Raiders offense needs a spark but may struggle here if they get behind early. Expect Jon Gruden to rely on his stellar offensive line to wear down the Chiefs’ front seven. The under looks like a good bet here, though the side may be a bit steep.
Pick: Las Vegas
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON (-6.5) (Over/Under 54)
Bill O’Brien got his marching orders this week, a shot heard around the league that will have ripple effects on this franchise’s make-up for the next few seasons. What many have called for has finally happened, with an 0-4 start too much for ownership. Deshaun Watson faces the prospect of a new head coach, but for now, Romeo Crennel takes the reins. Crennel is a grizzled veteran coach who will turn his focus to a defense that has been soft over the first four games. Meanwhile, Watson should be allowed to work his magic – and try to solve some of the underlying issues in the process.
This could be a good spot for Houston given O’Brien’s departure, with players keen to make a mark and impress a new coach – even an interim one. The 6.5-point line is an indictment of Jacksonville on many levels, with the loss to Cincinnati souring any lingering momentum they might have had. Things may start to settle down and return to some form of normality in the AFC South in this game, with Watson doing enough to outduel Gardner Minshew and get into the win column.
Pick: Houston
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (-13.5) (Over/Under 52)
The Ravens have gone just 3-6 ATS (33.3%) as the home favorite since 2019 when Lamar Jackson took over as the starter. Despite this, Vegas continues to buy in, making them huge favorites again this week against an upstart Bengals team. On paper, this certainly looks like a demolition, with Baltimore running all over the Bengals, but the Cincinnati defense isn’t awful (16th in points per game allowed). These AFC North games can sometimes throw up some wild results.
The Joe Burrow factor changes everything for Cincinnati, and the young passer is clicking with his receiving corps. Even Joe Mixon, seemingly an afterthought of head coach Zac Taylor over the past few weeks, showed he is not to be forgotten with a monster Week 4. Those yards will be tougher to come by against Baltimore, but Burrow has the moxie and the spirit to keep this one close. It may need the classic back-door cover, but the Bengals will get there.
Pick: Cincinnati
CAROLINA at ATLANTA (-3.5) (Over/Under 55)
Back to back victories have turned the Panthers from a bottom-dwelling, Trevor Lawrence-bound future to an entertaining, spunky team capable of causing upsets. Behind a strong Teddy Bridgewater performance and a surprisingly stifling defense, they did just that last week against Arizona. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady is really beginning to put his trademark on the Carolina attack, putting Bridgewater in good situations – particularly in the red zone.
The Atlanta defense ranks 31st in points per game allowed, giving up 34.5 on average, something Brady will be acutely aware of. The opportunities will be there against the Falcons; it is just a matter of taking them. Matt Ryan will like his chances, too, of taking advantage of the mismatch between his receivers and the Panthers’ cornerbacks. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley against Rasul Douglas and Donte Jackson is not a match-up the Panthers want to have to face often. Despite being winless, the Falcons are laying 3.5 points, which makes this an easy selection in favor of the road team, with the half point being crucial in the decision.
Pick: Carolina
MIAMI at SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
Nick Mullens’ moment in the sun quickly faded away on Sunday night, as he seemed to shrink into himself as the game wore, committing critical turnovers to doom the 49ers. Whether Jimmy Garoppolo can return this week is still up in the air, but at least Kyle Shanahan’s team got George Kittle back, not forgetting a strong display from Brandon Aiyuk. The return of Raheem Mostert could kickstart the ground game and give whoever is starting a hard-running, power back to complement more conservative passing.
Miami’s defense has been stiff enough through four games, ranking 13th in points per game allowed. They are also 6-2 in their last eight games as the road underdog and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games. It remains to be seen how long the Ryan Fitzpatrick show will go on, but with each loss, Brian Flores must surely be taking one step closer, mentally, to putting Tua Tagovailoa into the line-up. If Philadelphia can get the job done in San Francisco, what is to stop Miami from doing the same? Like the previous game, the half-point is what tips this in Miami’s favor.
Pick: Miami
NY GIANTS at DALLAS (-9) (Over/Under 54)
Credit must go to Joe Judge and his Giants team for summoning up a credible performance in defeat last week. Few predicted that Big Blue would be able to hang against the Rams on the road, but the defense was scrappy and Daniel Jones’ never-say-die attitude was evident throughout. This is still a team in transition with plenty of kinks to iron out, however, and they could come unstuck against a Dallas team that knows they are within reach of taking control of the division.
Although these teams have one win between them, this is a sneaky important game. This is the first of three straight divisional games for New York, so getting momentum now would be the perfect moment to do so. The Giants shouldn’t be afraid to attack the Dallas defense. As for the Cowboys, they have some winnable games coming up as well, placing more emphasis on getting a result. The Cowboys have won and covered the last six in this series. The edge goes to the home team, and the over looks to be a decent wager as well.
Pick: Dallas
INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) at CLEVELAND (Over/Under 48.5)
The Colts are one of the few teams in the league with a defense that can legitimately shut down opponents. Through four games, they lead the NFL in points per game allowed with 14.0, and their offense is staying balanced and not overexerting itself in the process. It is the perfect script for an aging quarterback like Philip Rivers, who can play the role of game manager in Frank Reich’s scheme. The clash against Cleveland this week could be a crucial one for AFC tiebreakers in the final analysis, with the Colts’ major challenge being how to slow down the Browns rushing attack, albeit without Nick Chubb.
Baker Mayfield did enough last week to help his team get the win, but he missed a throw down the stretch that could have sealed it. Overall, he is still operating as a sort of Philip Rivers-plus, adding a bit more from a mobility standpoint but otherwise leaning on the ground game and defense. Kevin Stefanski will need a good game plan to outfox the Colts, who are road favorites. Both teams will try to move the game script to their preferred one – namely ball control – so the under looks appealing here. The Colts have won and covered in their last three games.
Pick: Indianapolis
DENVER at NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) (Over/Under 48.5)
With 10 days to prepare, the Broncos may still not have figured out their quarterback situation come Sunday. It is likely that Brett Rypien, who oscillated between moments of inspiration and moments of utter calamity, will get the start as Drew Lock continues his rehab. Denver has a 7-3 ATS record as the underdog in the last 10 games under Vic Fangio, but this is a tough ask.
The one factor in Denver’s favor is that Brian Hoyer could get the start again, though his benching in Kansas City doesn’t bode well for his future prospects in New England. Jarrett Stidham, if he starts, will be strictly managed and the ground game will be a primary focus. Defensively, New England should have far too much for the Broncos, making this a very appealing ‘under’ bet. The 8.5-point spread should be avoided if possible, but New England gets the nod if you are tempted.
Pick: New England
(Sunday Night) MINNESOTA at SEATTLE (-7.5) (Over/Under 58)
The Vikings finally notched a victory, but it was done in the most underwhelming of fashions, with a late-game catch/no catch knife-edge decision. On the bright side, the offense came to life in Houston, with Dalvin Cook looking nigh on unstoppable and Justin Jefferson rewarding Kirk Cousins’ downfield faith in him. If the Vikings offense can carry that momentum over, the opportunities will be there to attack downfield against a Seahawks defense that is exploitable. Defensively, Minnesota may have a harder time, giving up 31.2 points per game on average.
And they haven’t played Russell Wilson yet, folks. Seattle’s perfect start is no fluke despite their defensive deficiencies, with a more balanced approach getting the job done in Miami. The 7.5-point line makes this a stay away from a wagering perspective, though the total of 58 looks a little high. It is worth noting, however, that the Seahawks are 3-1 to the over this season, exceeding the total by an average of 10.9 points.
Pick: Seattle
(Monday Night) LA CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) (Over/Under 52)
You cannot help but be amazed by the play of Justin Herbert. He has shown a derring-do that few young quarterbacks possess while remaining poised and keeping plays alive when needed. The loss of Austin Ekeler is a significant blow for a team that cannot afford to have any more players out of commission. With a game script likely to favor New Orleans, Herbert will have to get his arm iced up and ready to go. This will be the rookie’s trickiest assignment yet.
The Saints have covered the spread in just two of their last seven games at the Superdome, a number as much down to how Vegas applies a points tax to them as anything else. However, that home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be with no fans screaming their heads off, creating the prospect of a back door cover for Herbert and company. The over could be the play here, with the Saints going over the total in their first four games this season.
Pick: Los Angeles
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
The best bets went just 1-3 last week as a few bad beats turned the week upside down. Lines are getting more efficient by the week and Vegas is applying ‘points spread taxes’ to some teams. Let’s jump into Week 5’s best bets to get back on track. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 CINCINNATI (+13.5) at BALTIMORE
- 2 HOUSTON (-6.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
- 3 CAROLINA (+3.5) at ATLANTA
- 4 INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) at CLEVELAND
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 5 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM AFC SOUTH DOUBLE (2.64-1 ODDS)
- INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5)
- HOUSTON (-6.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM ATS DOUBLE (2.42-1 ODDS):
- CAROLINA (+3.5)
- CINCINNATI (+13.5)
- 2-TEAM OVER DOUBLE (2.5-1 ODDS):
- LOS ANGELES CHARGERS/NEW ORLEANS – OVER 52
- MINNESOTA/SEATTLE – OVER 58
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM MEGA MONEY LINE (2.13-1 ODDS)
- HOUSTON - FOR THE WIN
- INDIANAPOLIS – FOR THE WIN
- KANSAS CITY – FOR THE WIN
- DALLAS – FOR THE WIN
- UNDERDOGS MONEY LINE DOUBLE (10-1 ODDS)
- MIAMI – FOR THE WIN
- CHICAGO – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Cincinnati, Carolina, Houston, Indianapolis, New England
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 8-6-1
- SEASON OVERALL: 35-26-2 (55.5%)
- BEST BETS: 8-7-1, last week 1-3 (53.3%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 11-10-1, last week 1-5 (52.3%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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