This article is about a 7-minute read.
When it comes to picking out NFL tight ends for fantasy purposes, it does not take much to figure out who the top candidates are this season. If you are looking for some late value picks, however, you have come to the right place. What we want to find here are tight ends that should be getting several targets a game. With five or more balls headed their way each week, they should be able to haul in at least three on average and have a shot at 40-50 yards a week and possibly a touchdown. That may not sound like much, but that works out to be 48 catches and 640-800 yards a year, which would put any TE right near the Top 12 last season (provided he scored a few times). Not bad at all.
So what's the plan? Having looked at several different ways to pick up some valuable tight ends later in fantasy drafts before, this article is going to get a bit more scientific. Here we will take a look at an overall ADP list and pick out three different types of teams. Oddly enough, it is better to focus more on the wide receivers on a given team than about the tight ends. The reasoning is pretty simple - if the quarterback on a given team has limited options, the ball has to go somewhere. What better option than a big guy over the middle?
Let us break down the 32 NFL teams and keep the ones that fit into three basic categories:
- Teams with no WRs in the Top 50 ADP List
- Teams with only 1 WR in the Top 30 ADP List
- Teams with 1-2 WRs in the Top 50 ADP List but none in the Top 30
Here are the results:
CATEGORY 1 - TEAMS WITH NO WRS IN THE TOP 50 ADP LIST
This may be surprising to some, but there are usually a few teams each year with absolutely terrible wide receiver options. This season is rather unique as there are ZERO teams in this category, which could very well be the first time in the history of this annual analysis. Without further ado, let us move on to the next category.
CATEGORY 2 - TEAMS WITH ONLY 1 WR IN THE TOP 30 ADP LIST
This group of teams is usually the largest group to consider each year, and 2020 is no different. With ten different franchises falling in this category, we can pare it down a little by crossing off teams that have a top-notch tight end, since we are looking for value players here. This year it is two teams that get eliminated thanks to Baltimore’s Mark Andrews and Hunter Henry of the Chargers, so now we are down to eight teams to analyze. On the other end of the spectrum, two teams - Jacksonville and Washington - do not have any tight end candidates with an ADP in the Top 30, so they can also be crossed off the list for consideration. That leaves six teams from this group to dissect:
Miami - Rookie tight ends tend to struggle in the NFL, and that was very much the case for Mike Gesicki in 2018. Last season Gesicki doubled his rookie numbers to post a respectable 51-570-5 stat line, showing promise down the stretch to contend for borderline Top 12 numbers. Gesicki could be a solid sleeper to pick up, especially if rookie Tua Tagovailoa gets the starting job, as young quarterbacks tend to target big tight ends across the middle of the field.
Green Bay - Green Bay expects to use the second-year tight end, Jace Sternberger, in their starting lineup, but the fantasy prospects look dim. The Packers have moved more towards a running offense and most of the limited passes tend to go towards the wide receivers. The hope here would be for Sternberger to see similar targets and numbers and Jimmy Graham did last year (38-447-3 on 63 targets), but those are big shoes to fill. Leave Sternberger on the waiver wire unless he shows a lot of upside during the preseason.
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Indianapolis - Once again the Colts have two starting-caliber tight ends in Jack Doyle and Trey Burton, similar to prior seasons with Doyle and Eric Ebron. Expect both Burton and Doyle to contribute, but their individual numbers will likely be capped by targets being split between both veterans.
Tennessee - This position used to be a major spot to target Delanie Walker, who used to be a favorite target for Marus Mariota, but both of those are memories now for Titans fans. Now the starter is Jonnu Smith, optimists will put forth that Smith continues to grow into the starting role and has bigger years ahead of him, but realists have to look hard at his numbers last season. Smith had just 35 targets and had two or fewer chances at a reception in 50% of Tennessee games last year. The numbers improved slightly in the second half of the season, but Smith produced minimally - just three touchdowns and no games over 80 yards - in the last nine regular-season games.
Carolina - The Panthers have retooled their passing game for 2020, bringing in Teddy Bridgewater as the new starting quarterback. Greg Olsen left for Seattle, opening the door for Ian Thomas. Thomas had limited opportunities behind Olsen in his first two seasons, but he played more during the final five games last year, turning 26 targets into a respectable 15-132-1 stat line. Projecting that over 16 games gives 48-442-3, which is nearly identical to the staff projections - but this likely represents the floor for Thomas rather than his upside. Thomas was only on the field for 50% of the snaps in three of those same five games last year, and in the two games he played 60+ snaps he racked up nine receptions and 80 of those yards along with his only touchdown. Carolina’s offense is changing now with Bridgewater and new wide receivers, but Thomas certainly represents a solid fantasy TE2 with upside if he flourishes in the new scheme.
Chicago - Jimmy Graham seems to get into this group each season, as he was in Category 2 last year in Seattle. Now Graham is a Bear, taking over as the starter for Chicago, but the passing game looks to be very uncertain for the Bears. Mitch Trubisky will battle Nick Foles to be the first string quarterback, but Chicago once again feels like a run-first offense that will rely on lower-scoring defensive struggles in attempts to win contests this year. After Allen Robinson, the depth chart thins out quickly with Anthony Miller the likely second starting wide receiver. Tarik Cohen plays a dual role as a pass-catching tailback and wideout, so the tight end should get more work - but Graham has not kept up his Pro Bowl level play since leaving Seattle after the 2017 season. Graham is on the tail end of a solid career, but his days of major fantasy contributions appear to be over.
Bottom line from Category 2: The back end of the TE1s offers some value, but the better options are to target valuable TE2s from this group. Mike Gesicki and Jack Doyle and Trey Burton all have fantasy starter upside, especially if the Colts focus on just one tight end to get the majority of the work. Ian Thomas of the Panthers is the sleeper pick here with significant upside, representing the biggest value from the group.
CATEGORY 3 - TEAMS WITH 1-2 WRS IN THE TOP 50 ADP LIST BUT NONE IN THE TOP 30
This group of teams is usually much smaller than Category 2, but in 2020 there are a number of teams in this category. Some are not even worth investigating such as the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans (neither team with a tight end in the Top 35), and more have elite options (San Francisco, Philadelphia, Las Vegas, and the New York Giants). That leaves just one team to discuss:
New York Jets - Chris Herndon was once considered a sleeper tight end as he performed nicely as a rookie back in 2018, posting a respectable 39-502-4 stat line in his first season. Last year he first served a four-game suspension, then had only one short catch before getting injured and being lost for the rest of the 2019 campaign. With the Jets a Bottom 4 passing offense last year and upgrades having been made at wide receiver to add talented youth with Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims, there is not much upside potential for Herndon.
Bottom line from Category 3: The cupboard is bare with just Chris Herndon of the Jets to consider, and there is not much to be excited to be about for any part of the Jets’ passing game. Probably best to ignore this category this season.
If you are waiting this season to pick up a tight end later in your draft or even just looking for a good second (or third) option, take a longer look at the guys outlined here. Values exist at tight end outside of the Top 10 names that are going to go in the first half of your fantasy drafts, so do not overlook the later guys who can help your team get those extra points and win a few more games this year.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.