Last week, our Chad Parsons laid out four tight end strategies to win your league. With respect due to Chad and the great work he did digging into this year’s tight end tiers, only two strategies exist if you want to win the tight end position in your draft:
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Draft Travis Kelce or George Kittle in Round 2
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Ignore any tight end being drafted inside the top-100 picks (unless one falls) and swing from your heels on a couple of tight ends in the late rounds
The gap in weekly fantasy production from Kelce and Kittle to the No. 3 tight end (take your pick of Zach Ertz or Mark Andrews) is wide enough to justify their respective ADPs. A sweet spot for receiver value in Rounds 5-8 enables you to mix Kittle or Kelce in with a running back-heavy start to your draft and still field a wide receiver group that can compete with any of your opponents each week.
On the other hand, drafting Andrews or Ertz in Round 4 comes at the cost of running backs like James Conner and David Johnson, who could realistically touch the ball 300 times in above-average offenses. The opportunity cost remains significant in Rounds 5-8, where drafting a tight end means passing on potential low-end WR1s like Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin, T.Y. Hilton, D.J. Chark, A.J. Green, and Brandin Cooks.
If you’re averse to spending a premium pick on Kelce or Kittle, fortunately, you don’t have to swing blindly on a late-round tight end. Focusing on the correct details led us to Kittle’s breakout season in 2018, as well as Andrews’ last year.
This year, the process is refined to eliminate overlapping categories, and the field extended to include more candidates since there haven’t been this many attractive tight ends available late in drafts in recent memory.
The three traits we’re seeking from the ideal late-round tight end:
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Productive in limited opportunities: They must have shown they can be productive at the NFL level, even if the sample size is small
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Athleticism: Lends itself to yards after the catch and red-zone production, two essential factors in a top-shelf fantasy season for tight ends.
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Target Share: Above all, fantasy points don’t create themselves. The opportunity has to be there. Bonus points if they’re in a top offense that adds scoring chances.
This year’s candidates listed in order of priority:
Blake Jarwin
Past Production
Jarwin will get overlooked as the best-in-class late-round breakout candidate because he lacks the draft pedigree of the others. But he’s already outplayed his undrafted free agent status after turning in back-to-back efficient seasons for the Cowboys. Last year, he ranked eighth among qualifying tight ends in both yards per route run (1.8) and yards per target (8.9). Jarwin also scored a touchdown on 7.3% of his targets, which was a top-10 rate, and you may still remember when he dropped 36.9 fantasy points on the Giants in Week 17 of the 2018 season.
Athleticism
Jarwin isn’t an elite athlete by any means, but he’s no slouch either. He received a 68th percentile SPARQ-x rating coming out of Oklahoma in 2017. While he lacks the speed to beat the fastest defensive backs down the seam, his 4.74 40-yard-dash and impressive burst at 246 pounds are enough to cause mismatches.
Target Share
Beware of the “too many mouths to feed” narrative when it comes to evaluating Jarwin’s opportunity. The addition of CeeDee Lamb to Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup gives Dallas arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. But will Lamb exceed the 83 targets vacated by Randall Cobb as a rookie, with limited off-season workouts? Even if you pencil Lamb in for 100 targets in year-one, there is still room for Jarwin to command at least 100 of his own -- a threshold reached by only four tight ends in 2019.
Jason Witten leaves behind another 83 targets from last season, and Jarwin earned 41 of his own. Assuming the offensive pie stays about the same size for Dallas this year, Jarwin stands to keep his own volume and soak up most of Witten’s. The Cowboys signed Jarwin to a three-year, $24.25 million contract extension, and brought in only former-Chief, Blake Bell, to pair with him. Bell was a blocking complement to Kelce in Kansas City, which is what he’ll be for Jarwin.
If everything clicks for the Cowboys, their offense will be surpassed only by the Chiefs. Jarwin has proven efficiency, plus-athleticism, the trust of his quarterback and coaching staff, and is stepping into a target void. The fact he barely gets drafted inside the top-20 at the position is absurd. Draft this man.
Ian Thomas
Past Production
Thomas was the rare tight end who produced right away when given chances as a rookie. When Greg Olsen's season ended early in 2018, Thomas finished as the TE6 over the final five weeks. Olsen stayed relatively healthy last year, missing only Weeks 14 and 15. Thomas combined for 13 targets, seven receptions, 80 yards, and one touchdown in those games. His efficiency declined steeply in 2019 due to some drops and poor quarterback play, but it’s encouraging Thomas has generally been a fantasy starter when called upon to start for the Panthers at a young age.
Athleticism
Thomas doesn’t have blazing speed (4.74 40-yard-dash), but he excelled in the explosion and agility drills with high marks in the vertical jump (36"), broad jump (10'3") and 20-yard shuttle (4.2 seconds).
Target Share
It certainly helps to have Olsen out of the way, but it is unclear how the targets get allocated in Carolina behind Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. The new coaching regime in Carolina promises to play up in pace, but that’s nothing new for the Panthers, who ranked fifth in situation-neutral seconds per play in 2019.
Without more team pass attempts, Thomas projects to top out around 80-90 targets, which is enough volume to fuel a top-12 finish. His upside lies in improving his hands enough to become a trusted target for Teddy Bridgewater in the red zone. Receivers like Moore and Curtis Samuel are great at what they do, but neither has the size to dominate when the Panthers get in close the way the 6’4”, 260-pound Thomas theoretically can.
Mike Gesicki
Past Production
Gesicki looked lost as a rookie while getting the square peg/round hole treatment from Adam Gase’s coaching staff in Miami. He made huge strides in year-two, however, especially after Preston Williams’ ACL tear opened up more opportunities in the second half. From Weeks 10-17, Gesicki was the cumulative TE8, ranking behind only Jared Cook and Mark Andrews in receiving touchdowns at the position.
Athleticism
Gesicki’s raw athleticism makes the gap between him and Thomas extremely narrow. He laid waste to the competition at the 2018 combine, measuring in the 95th percentile or above in every drill. Gesicki’s size (6’6’’, 247 lbs.) and speed (4.54 40-yard dash) effectively make him a lankier Kittle from purely an athletic standpoint.
Target Share
It’s concerning Gesicki couldn’t command consistent targets until the Dolphins were down to DeVante Parker and little else in their passing game. The switch to Chan Gailey’s offensive scheme is also an unknown for Gesicki. Tony Gonzalez’s stellar 2008 is the only standout season for a tight end on Gailey’s resume, though it appears talent was more the problem than scheme.
Gailey has used lesser tight ends creatively at times, including in the slot where Gesicki led all tight ends in routes run by a mile in 2019. If Gailey is smart enough to use Gesicki as a jumbo-sized wide receiver rather than an afterthought in three-wide spread sets, the upside for a top-5 finish exists. But then what happens when Ryan Fitzpatrick is benched for a rookie quarterback? The floor for Gesicki is not for the faint of heart.
T.J. Hockenson
Past Production
Outside of a stellar NFL debut, in which he hung a 9-6-131-1 receiving line on the Cardinals, Hockenson’s rookie season was useless for fantasy purposes. But impact seasons from rookie tight ends are few and far between. At this time last year, many in the scouting community had anointed Hockenson as the best tight end prospect to enter the league since Kelce.
Athleticism
Hockenson measured as a 75th percentile SPARQ-x athlete and showed adequate speed for a 6’5”, 250-pound tight end (4.7 40-yard-dash). Like Thomas, he is explosive and agile, as evidenced by the 37.5” vertical jump, 10'3" broad jump, and 4.2-second 20-yard shuttle time he posted at the 2019 combine.
Target Share
Opportunities might be a problem for Hockenson in year-two. Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevel sounds excited to get him more involved, but wide receivers dominated targets in Detroit last year. All three of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola are returning, and Hockenson is still rehabbing an ankle injury from last November. Matthew Stafford’s history throwing to tight ends is also somewhat sketchy.
Still, we shouldn’t dismiss a year-two breakout from a player with Hockenson’s pedigree. He finished with a 14% target share as a rookie despite missing four games, and the Lions abysmal defense should land the team in numerous pass-heavy game scripts.
Noah Fant
Past Production
Fant ranked as the TE29 on a per-game basis despite finishing 15th at the position in targets and playing a healthy 70% of Denver’s offensive snaps. On the positive side, he ranked seventh among tight ends in yards-after-the-catch with 331, although he owes about 65 of them to the worst attempt at tackling you’ve ever seen. Fant’s 14.1 yards per reception and 13% target share were also reasons for optimism moving forward.
Athleticism
Fant's athleticism is off the charts. He ranked in the 95th percentile or better in every measured category at the 2019 combine. If we were grading these candidates on physical prowess alone, Fant would top even Gesicki.
Target Share
The additions of Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in the first and second rounds, respectively, make for stiffer competition than Fant had to contend with behind Courtland Sutton last year. Melvin Gordon is also a better receiver out of the backfield than the Broncos had on the roster in 2019. But the tallest hurdle standing between Fant and a breakout is quarterback play. Until further notice, a target from Dak Prescott, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matthew Stafford is worth more than one from Drew Lock, whose 6.5 yards per attempt was third-worst among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts last season.
Longer Shots
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Dallas Goedert - The Eagles will still run plenty of 12 personnel this year, but Goedert’s best fantasy performances came when Greg Ward was Philadelphia’s WR1. The return of DeSean Jackson and the addition of Jalen Reagor place Goedert back in a familiar situation. He needs a Zach Ertz injury to break out.
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Jonnu Smith - We saw occasional glimpses of Smith’s game-breaking potential on long gains of 41, 35, and 57 yards last year. But 3.7 targets per game after Delanie Walker’s season-ending injury in Week 7 is not going to cut it.
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Jace Sternberger - Sternberger was invisible as a rookie but should do more with 60 targets than Jimmy Graham could in 2019. He was dominant at Texas A&M and will face little target competition from Green Bay’s wide receivers (besides Davante Adams). Not in his favor -- we have to go back to Jermichael Finley to find an Aaron Rodgers tight end with consistent fantasy value.
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Dawson Knox - Knox is an exceptional athlete who showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie. It’s a shame he’s stuck in a low-volume offense with lots of target competition, and an inaccurate quarterback who would sooner throw deep or take off running than look towards his tight end.
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