The FPC: Tight Ends

Photo: USA Today Sports

By studying the rules of both the FFPC and the FPC along with some of the history and previous performances by FPC players, insights can be found that will help many players to not only compete well in both contests but also to be in a position to win their league and be in the running for a top prize in the championship round.

As the summer rolls on, I will continue analyzing many aspects of the Footballguys Players Championship and the Fantasy Football Players Championship. Through these articles, I hope to provide extra help with fully understanding how to best build a top-notch fantasy team within the contest. As someone who has competed against the best players in the world and in several contests much like the FPC and the FFPC, I fully understand how every possible advantage and extra edge can make all the difference in the world.

THE TIGHT END POSITION

Under the microscope this time around is the position of tight end. According to the rules of the Footballguys Players Championship, the rosters are as follows:

Starting Roster

• 1 quarterback
• 2 running backs
• 2 wide receivers
• 1 tight end
• 2 flex players (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 kicker
• 1 team defense

With the following relevant scoring system in place:

• 4 points for passing touchdowns, 6 points for all other touchdowns
• 0.1 point for every 1 yard rushing or receiving
• 1.5 points per reception for tight ends

The impact of the 1.5 points per reception for tight ends has been discussed in a separate article here. This article is focusing on fantasy scoring in general for tight ends.

So how do you analyze the impact of this scoring system to the current crop of potential fantasy tight ends? We need to dig into some numbers.

First, let's take a look at both the projected scores for the top-20 tight ends this season and calculate some VBD numbers using the worst starter method (more on that in a minute). The results are in Table 1:

Table 1: FPC Projected Fantasy Points For Top 20 Tight Ends

First a comment on the worst starter method. Even though only 12 tight ends are necessary as starters (the rules require one tight end per team), the Dual Flex rule put more of them into play. In prior years that adjustment had resulted in adding a few more tight ends to the mix, and that holds true this season as 13 tight ends project for positive VBD value for 2020. That means most teams will be sticking with just one tight end as a starter most weeks, using running backs or wide receivers in the two flex spots in their starting lineups, with only a few teams having the talent to even consider using two tight ends in their starting lineups.

Also note that the table stopped with just 20 tight ends, but you should expect several more to be drafted. The reasoning is that after about Round 15 (Pick 180), many of the teams select kickers and defenses, so ADP pretty much goes out the window. Just know that several more skill players are going to be selected in the final five rounds, so do not be shy to grab one you really want.

The VBD does not do much for a complete analysis without some context of other positions. Looking at the Draft Dominator, you can run a mock draft to get a feel for when the various tight ends are slated to come off of the draft board. Table 2 gives some more insight as to when the mock draft says to take a tight end:

Table 2: Draft Dominator FPC Mock - ADP For Top 20 Tight Ends

Based on the results, two tight ends - Travis Kelce and George Kittle - both project to be first-round selections. Two more (Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz) may not last through the second round. After the Top 4 tight ends are gone, the second tier (TE4 through TE8) normally go off the board before Round 6 is complete. All of the TE1 candidates are gone by the end of Round 8, after which the draft value shifts to other positions for the most part for several rounds. The rest of the Top 20 tight ends are all gone by the end of Round 15, with a few mini-runs in Rounds 9 (top TE2s) and 14 likely. At this point, about half of the league would have their second tight end on the roster. Teams lacking in tight ends or depth at the position then would start to take the next few at about a clip of one or two per round and teams will likely have at least two tight ends on their rosters by the end of the draft.

This is great for a mock draft, but how about some real-life comparisons? With the help of David Dodds here at Footballguys, we have pulled together some great ADP data based on early FPC drafts and created current ADP data for all of the top players. We can use this information to compare against the Draft Dominator mock results. Here are both ADPs compared side-by-side and their relative differences:

Table 3: Draft Dominator FPC Mock vs. 2019 FPC Data - Comparison of ADPs

Several key facts can be pulled from Table 3 about tight ends and FPC scoring:

• Travis Kelce and George Kittle are the clear top two options in 2020, with a second elite tier of Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz rounding out the Top 4 options this year. The first two are clear Round 1 targets, while the entire Top 4 should all be selected by the middle of the third round.
• The next tier of TE5 through TE8 come off the board about a full round earlier than the Draft Dominator predicted. That is a reflection of the gap between the Top 4 options and the next tier of tight ends. There is also some confusion as to ranking this tier of players, as any of the group could be considered a reasonable TE5 candidate.
• After eight or nine tight ends go off the board, a run on the position looks to be imminent in Round 9. Battles between owners looking for their first starter will be waged with other owners looking to scoop up second options, which can be used any given week in one (or both) Dual Flex spots.
• Tight ends 11-20 go much sooner than they should (based on the Draft Dominator) - a reflection of the assumed value of the players themselves, the relatively limited supply of starting tight ends that contribute to passing games, and also the 1.5 PPR bonus. That speaks again to how valuable tight ends are in the FPC – or at least how valuable the tight end position is perceived.
• Most teams will take at least two tight ends and about a third of the franchises will draft three as the ADP results show an average of 34 tight ends being selected.

PARTING THOUGHTS

Every fantasy league and its rulebook are a little different. For the FPC and the FFPC, the tight end position has many reasons to emphasize drafting them early and often. With the Dual Flex, up to three tight ends can start in a given week, and with 1.5 points per reception, their value is bumped up a little across the board. Having the flexibility to start two or three in a given week - especially with bye weeks - is a nice option to have.

So what is the right approach? Taking one of the top tight ends (Andrews, Ertz, Kittle or Kelce) so early seems too expensive when you look at the price you will have to pay (a certain Top 24 pick) and the added cost of not getting a Top 10 running back or wide receiver instead. While the Draft Dominator mock hints that all tight ends are reaches, the thing to take away from it is that the best value picks occur for the second group of the TE1s (TE5 through TE9). Grabbing an Evan Engram, Jared Cook or Hunter Henry when five to seven tight ends have already been selected is a great idea and a good approach to an FPC draft. Another solid idea is to not wait on TE2, as they will dry up quickly after Rounds 10-12. Snagging two Top 15 or so tight ends gives stability and performance for your team and allows you roster flexibility when it comes to both bye weeks and the Dual Flex roster options.

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.

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