DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 16

Photo: USA Today Sports

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

DraftKings jacked up the price on Jalen Hurts ($7,000), but the more exorbitant salaries of Patrick Mahomes II ($8,500) and Lamar Jackson ($8,000) should conspire to make the Eagles rookie the slate’s most sought-after quarterback. But assuming the crowd wants to pay up for at least one high-end running back and wide receiver, even Hurts may be difficult to fit under the cap. Look for salary-saving matchup plays Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700) and Baker Mayfield ($6,100) in plenty of lineups.

Pivot Points: While spending up to Mahomes, Jackson, and Deshaun Watson ($7,600) in a portion of your lineups is recommended due to their unmatched scoring ceilings, punting at quarterback looks like the right idea in the context of this slate. Cut the Trubisky chalk with either Drew Lock ($5,000) in a potential shootout vs. the LA Chargers, or Teddy Bridgewater ($5,300), who seems underappreciated in comparison to the presumed popularity of his wide receivers.

Running Back

Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara are off the main slate, leaving the running back position far thinner than usual. David Montgomery ($7,700) projects as the crowd-favorite RB1 despite his season-high salary. Those who are leery of Montgomery continuing his hot streak are likely to turn to Austin Ekeler ($7,600) instead. Phillip Lindsay will miss this week, making Melvin Gordon ($5,600) the most common RB2. The remaining RB2/Flex options will probably come from either side of the Bengals at Texans matchup. David Johnson ($6,100) and Giovani Bernard ($4,800) are each low-priced relative to their respective workload projections.

Pivot Points: You won’t be sneaking Nick Chubb ($7,800) or Miles Sanders ($7,000) past your opponents, but each comes with the upside to finish as the overall RB1 and won’t command the same hefty roster percentages as Montgomery and Ekeler. There isn’t much beyond Bernard in the running back bargain bin. Darrell Henderson’s ($4,500) workload is difficult to project, but he’s more explosive as a runner and receiver than Malcolm Brown ($4,000) and should get the slight majority of LA’s backfield touches in Cam Akers’ absence.

Wide Receiver

It’s a safe bet the majority of lineups will include at least one high-priced wide receiver. Tyreek Hill ($9,000) stands out as particularly chalky in a matchup against Atlanta’s pass-funnel defense. Calvin Ridley ($8,500) and Allen Robinson ($7,700) will also draw the crowd’s attention in the top price tier. This week’s pricing almost demands a Panthers wide receiver in the WR2 slot. D.J. Moore ($5,800), Robby Anderson ($5,500), and Curtis Samuel ($4,900) will each be popular options. There will be even less cap space to spare at WR3, where fringy players such as Tim Patrick ($4,200), Cam Sims ($3,300), and Laviska Shenault ($3,700) have to be considered. If Keenan Allen sits out, look for Mike Williams ($4,500) to shoot towards the top of the roster percentage rankings.

Pivot Points: If our opponents are going high-low, a balanced approach to the position will gain us leverage on the field. Cooper Kupp ($6,600), Brandin Cooks ($6,200), and Amari Cooper ($5,700) each have high enough ceilings to make the strategy viable.

Tight End

We’ve probably reached the inflection point where Travis Kelce ($8,500 - equivalent to the WR2) is out of consideration for common rosters. The majority of entrants won’t be willing to devote much cap space to the position, which should boost the popularity of Dallas Goedert ($3,700), Austin Hooper ($3,500), and Cole Kmet ($3,000).

Pivot Points: There is always Kelce, of course. Allocating 17% of your cap to a tight end is an easy way to build lineups differently from the crowd. Noah Fant ($4,800) looks healthy again and is priced in No man’s land. He’s the best bet to break a long run after-the-catch outside of Kelce and shouldn’t exceed moderate roster percentages.

Can You Trust The Chalk?

The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

David Montgomery (@JAX, $7,700, 28% rostered)
It was only three weeks ago Montgomery was appropriately valued at $5,500, but a string of recent ceiling games against Detroit, Houston, and Minnesota has inflated his cost. Ordinarily, Montgomery would be an easy fade at an elevated price and roster percentage. He needed an out-of-character 80-yard touchdown run to get there against Houston, and his 32-carry workload at Minnesota was only the second time he topped 20 carries in a game all season. Unfortunately, the context of this slate demands some exposure to Montgomery. There simply aren’t enough running backs available on this slate who can challenge his scoring projection in yet another favorable matchup, this time against Jacksonville. The Jaguars are playing for the tank after moving into the pole-position for Trevor Lawrence and couldn’t stop the run, even when they were trying. Over the last five weeks, Jacksonville has allowed 36.5% more PPR fantasy points to enemy running backs than league average. Shoot for 20-25% exposure to Montgomery if you’re multi-entering.

Tyreek Hill (vs. ATL, $9,000, 25% rostered)
It’s difficult to envision a path to failure for Hill against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense is a notorious pass-funnel. They have allowed the sixth-fewest PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs this season while giving up the second-most to wide receivers. With the Chiefs implied to lead the slate in scoring (32-point team total), and Hill dominating targets (24% market share) and air yards (37% market share) in Kansas City, the matchup fits like a glove. Following the crowd on Hill could be a problem this week, however. While the possibility exists he scores 50+ points and you need him in your lineup to win any money, it’s far more likely Hill finishes closer to his median projection (~21 DraftKings points). If you play him at the expense of a high-priced running back who has a big game, it will be difficult to make up those points due to the lack of high-upside running backs available in the middle and low salary ranges. Roster Hill at a lower rate than the field.

Jalen Hurts (@DAL, $7,000, 14% rostered)
If you’re rostering Hurts with the idea he’s going to get you another 40+ DraftKings points, you’re likely to be disappointed. But that doesn’t make him a bad play, despite a salary increase of $1,100 from last week. Hurts and Lamar Jackson are the only two quarterbacks on the slate who can realistically be projected to run the ball 10+ times, and the Alabama/Oklahoma product may already be further along than Jackson as a passer. He’s a relative bargain at $1,000 less than Jackson and should be helped by the matchup against the Cowboys, who are missing key players on defense and more capable of sustaining a shootout than the Giants (Jackson’s opponent this week). Play Hurts even with the field and differentiate your lineups elsewhere.

Leverage Plays

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.

Miles Sanders (@ DAL, $7,000, 12% rostered)
If we’re operating under the assumption Hurts will be the highest-rostered quarterback, Sanders becomes an obvious tournament pivot. Casual players think of Sanders as a busted first-round pick in season-long leagues, which will hopefully depress his roster percentage in a golden matchup against the Cowboys. Since Hurts entered the starting lineup in Week 14, Sanders has been reinstalled as Philadelphia’s bell-cow. Both his 82% snap-share and 88% share of the team’s total backfield touches are elite rates. Given a full workload, the home run-hitting Sanders has a 200 scrimmage-yard upside against Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed 34% more PPR fantasy production to enemy running backs than league average over the previous five weeks and will be missing starters at linebacker and defensive tackle. You can even consider a contrarian Hurts-Sanders stack in hopes of capturing all the Eagles’ offensive touchdowns.

Nick Chubb (@NYJ, $7,800, 11% rostered)
The Rams were favored by double-digits and implied to score nearly four touchdowns against the Jets last week, yet Cam Akers still burned us. Many entrants will attribute Akers’ failure to New York’s eighth-ranked rush defense (DVOA), but it had more to do with LA coming out flat on both sides of the ball, the game-script turning sideways, and Akers spraining his ankle than anything the Jets did. It will take another bottom-one-percent outcome for Chubb (a superior runner to Akers) and the Browns to blow a similar opportunity as double-digit favorites who are implied to score nearly four touchdowns. The probability Chubb gets to 25-30 DraftKings points in this spot is roughly double his middling percent-rostered projection.

Noah Fant (@LAC, $4,800, 11% rostered)
It appears Fant is finally over the nagging injuries that have torpedoed his game logs during the second half of the season. In last week’s blowout loss to Buffalo, Fant’s 11 targets more than doubled the next-closest Broncos pass-catcher and he produced a season-high 20.8 DraftKings points. Despite missing multiple games and playing injured in several more, Fant trails only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller in yards-after-the-catch at the tight end position. With Waller playing on Saturday and Kelce’s price through the ceiling, Fant provides the most upside-per-dollar among tight ends on this slate. The matchup against the Chargers isn’t a scary one. LA trails only the Jets and Jaguars with 10 touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends.

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