Sunday Morning Update:
No updates to the lineup this morning. The only relevant news that has changed is that Christian Kirk will also miss this week making DeAndre Hopkins a better play than he previously was, but at $8,200, is not a must play and I still prefer Adams/Ridley to him.
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 129.3)
- QB Deshaun Watson, HOU, $8,700
- RB Ty Montgomery, NO, $4,500
- RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,000
- WR Russell Gage, ATL, $5,700
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,300
- WR Curtis Samuel, CAR, $6,100
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,800
- Flex RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,200
- TD Los Angeles Chargers, $3,500
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Tennessee (vs HOU) – 32 points
- Indianapolis (vs JAC) – 31.75 points
- Minnesota (at DET)– 30.25 points
- Tampa Bay (vs ATL) – 28.5 points
- Baltimore (at CIN) – 28 points
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 17-
Week 17 is always a weird week. The key to this week is to find teams that are still motivated to be playing. Below is a general principle that I have when heading into Week 17, it isn’t a hard rule if there are circumstances where a team that is on the avoid list is resting enough players that it creates value, but it is a general idea as we head into this weird slate.
Situations to Target:
- Teams that have something to play for. This is the obvious one where teams are still trying to get into the playoffs, or teams that are looking to improve their playoff seeding. This year is a little bit different however in that Pittsburgh and Buffalo both with a win could lock up the #2 seed, but there is no bye for the #2 seed, and the #3 seed is likely to face Cleveland in the first round if they get in, which they are by far the weakest playoff team so there is not as much motivation to obtain the #2 seed and potentially have to play Tennessee or Indianapolis.
- Teams that have been eliminated several weeks ago. These players and teams are going to finish out the season just as they have in Weeks 14, 15, 16, where all they are playing for is pride and to get more game film out there after what was a disappointing season. The Jets for example are a prime example here. There season has been over since about Week 7, but they have continued to fight and continued to battle and have won their last two games.
Situations to Avoid:
- The team that has nothing to play for. This would be the Kansas City Chiefs this week who have locked up the #1 overall seed and are resting their players. There have been scenarios in which players from these teams had breakout performances, but they are generally better as GPP plays than as cash game plays. We are going to count Pittsburgh and Buffalo in this group as well based on both teams largely not caring whether they will have the #2 or #3 seed. Buffalo is going to start their starters, but it remains to be seen how long they play in this one.
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Buffalo Bills
- Be careful on Tampa Bay. They have said all the right things that they will start their starters, and play to win, but it remains to be seen whether that will be true for the entire game.
- Teams that have recently been eliminated from the playoffs. These are teams that had a big push to the end to potentially get into the playoffs, and fell just short. The good news here is that the teams on this list are small this year as with the extra playoff spot, there is still a significant number of teams in contention.
- Philadelphia Eagles
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
Alvin Kamara has tested positive for Covid-19. Latavius Murray, Dwayne Washington, and Michael Burton will all miss this game as well due to close-contact. This is an absolute mess of a situation as Ty Montgomery seemingly should get the most time at the running back position, but Taysom Hill is also likely to see some short yardage work.
Dalvin Cook will miss this week due to a personal reason. Alexander Mattison will start in this intriguing matchup facing the woeful Lions defense.
Jared Goff will miss this week with a thumb injury, while one of his top targets Cooper Kupp will miss with Covid-19. John Wolford will start at quarterback for the Rams. This is a wild card as Wolford had a great Senior season at Wake Forest after largely struggling his first three seasons.
The Chiefs will sit their starters, and it’s not 100% known who will be inactive just yet, but it appears that at the very least, Patrick Mahomes II, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill will all be inactive or extremely limited. Chad Henne will get the start this week, but the cast of receivers he will have will likely be Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle. Expect a heavy dose of Darrell Williams in this one who makes for a decent GPP play.
Cam Akers is the injury that we are watching this week. The problem is we may not know before lock whether he is going to be good to go or not. If Akers is unable to go, Malcolm Brown becomes a must start in cash games this week as he will be almost guaranteed to have a heavy workload with the Rams relying on the ground game to try to beat the Cardinals this week.
Pittsburgh appears to be starting everyone except Ben Roethlisberger on the offensive side of the ball. This likely has to do with having an extremely young cast around Ben as well as not having a running back that is worth shutting down as the Steelers have struggled all year to run the ball. This is likely a complete avoid here, as it is difficult to determine which receivers will see the most workload. If you wanted to take a shot in a GPP, Chase Claypool would be the guy that I would roll out there as he is a big receiver and with no Denzel Ward for the Browns could give see a few opportunities in this one.
San Francisco will be without Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. C.J. Beathard will also get the start at quarterback once again this week which means that with the lack of receiving options George Kittle becomes one of the top tight ends on this slate this week.
Chase Edmonds is another key injury that we are watching and similar to the Cam Akers news, we may not have resolution prior to lock. If Edmonds is unable to go, Kenyan Drake becomes an extremely attractive cash game play this week.
Mike Davis will miss this week which will severely hinder the Panthers at the running back position as Christian McCaffrey’s season is over as well. This will leave the Panthers with just Rodney Smith at the running back position, but it could open the door for Curtis Samuel to see significant time at the position as well especially if the Panthers fall behind in this game.
Gus Edwards is questionable with a back injury. If he is unable to go, J.K. Dobbins should see an uptick in volume which has largely been his Achilles’ Heel this year in terms of fantasy is that he is just not touching the ball enough.
KEY CASH CORE
Deshaun Watson- $8,700
Tennessee’s pass rush at this point is absolutely abysmal. The Titans had just one sack in the month of December and only have 15 on the season. It has gotten to the point that Matt LaFleur last week said that the Packers would absolutely run plays that they would not be able to run against a normal defense. Watson and the Texans torched this Titans defense earlier this season as he threw for 335 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Texans are 7 point underdogs which should increase Watson’s upside as well as they’ll be throwing for the entire game this week. Watson has thrown for over 300 yards in five of his last six games and has topped the 300-yard mark in 9 of his last 12. Expect a big day from Watson this week.
Alexander Mattison- $5,000
With no Dalvin Cook, the Vikings turn back to a familiar running back in Alexander Mattison. Mattison is not of the quality of Dalvin Cook, but is a more than capable running back to lead the Vikings backfield this week. In his three games that he has been the primary ball carrier, he is averaging 69 yard and that includes a game against Atlanta where game script forced the Vikings to throw the ball as he only had 26 yards on 10 touches in that game. Mattison is just 22 years old, and the Vikings still have significant plans for the running back who could one day take over for Dalvin Cook. The Vikings are facing Detroit in this one and the matchup could not be any better as Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, averaging 121 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game to the position.
George Kittle- $6,800
At just $6,800, the price is simply too cheap for the second-best tight end in football. The 49ers head into this game short handed as Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are both out leaving George Kittle, Kendrick Bourne, and Richie James as the receiving options for the 49ers. Kittle played about 50% of the snaps last week in his return and while he only had four catches, did show the deep play ability as he had 92 yards on those four receptions. Kittle also gets the benefit of having C.J. Beathard as the quarterback this week as the two have played together dating back to college where they were roommates.
Ty Montgomery- $4,500
With all of the running backs in New Orleans being out due to Covid-19 close contact to Alvin Kamara, the Saints will be forced to turn to Ty Montgomery and Tony Jones Jr. Expect the split to be very similar to the existing Saints backfield with Jones playing the short-yardage Latavius Murray role, and Montgomery playing the Alvin Kamara role. At just $4,500, the Saints are extremely limited in this game as they will be without their two best players in Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Expect Montgomery to have 15 touches and a possibility to find the end zone which if he does will easily pay off his cash game value.
Curtis Samuel- $6,100
With no Mike Davis or Christian McCaffrey, expect Samuel’s role to increase in this game similar to what we saw last week against Washington. Samuel had 7 carries in that game along with 5 receptions as he is quickly becoming the Panthers most reliable player late in this season. Over his last five games, Samuel is averaging 89 yards receiving+rushing and is averaging nearly six receptions per game. On a slate where there are very few receiving options, Samuel makes a ton of sense this week to potential see an increased workload along with Rodney Smith as the primary running back while also flexing out and playing that pivotal receiving role.
GPP Consideration
Calvin Ridley- $8,700
When Julio Jones is not in the game, Calvin Ridley is the second-best wide receiver in football. In games that Julio is not playing, is averaging 118 yards per game this season and has topped 100 yard in every game except one. This week, Ridley and the Falcons get the benefit of facing off against a secondary that they shredded just two weeks ago throwing for 356 yards and 3 touchdowns. With Tampa Bay’s motivation potentially in question even though the coaching staff is saying otherwise, Ridley could be in for a massive day this week. He makes for a great pivot off of Davante Adams or Derrick Henry if you want to stack both Adams and Ridley.
Key Cash Game Fade
Mecole Hardman- $5,300
At $5,300, Mecole Hardman is likely going to be popular this week as the Chiefs presumedly will be without most of their key offense this week. Hardman just seems like a bit of a trap in this game as Chad Henne has not started a game since 2014. The other concern with Hardman is that he is a critical piece of their special teams, and will the Chiefs lean on him and want him taking hits in this game as they prepare for the playoffs. We could very likely see a game in which Hardman gets a few catches, but don’t expect a massive game from Hardman in this one. We could see guys like Gehrig Dieter, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson all play a role this week in a game that the Chiefs are just looking to stay healthy.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 129.3)
- QB Deshaun Watson, HOU, $8,700
- RB Ty Montgomery, NO, $4,500
- RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,000
- WR Russell Gage, ATL, $5,700
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,300
- WR Curtis Samuel, CAR, $6,100
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,800
- Flex RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,200
- TD Los Angeles Chargers, $3,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – GPP Lineup Falcons Stack/Derrick Henry Fade (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 124.6)
- QB Matt Ryan, ATL, $7,500
- RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,000
- RB Ty Montgomery, NO, $4,500
- WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, $8,700
- WR Mike Evans, TB, $8,100
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA, $6,500
- TE George Kittle, SF, $6,800
- Flex WR, Davante Adams, GB, $9,300
- TD Los Angeles Chargers, $3,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) –FBG OPTIMAL LINEUP GPP LINEUP (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 137.9)
- QB Deshaun Watson, HOU, $8,700
- RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL, $6,500
- RB Alexander Mattison, MIN, $5,000
- WR Mecole Hardman, KC, $5,300
- WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, $8,700
- WR Davante Adams, GB, $9,300
- TE Darren Waller, LV, $7,800
- Flex RB Ty Montgomery, NO, $4,500
- TD Cleveland Browns, $4,100
NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL
Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.
