SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE
Not a lot of news heading into Sunday Morning compared to the past few weeks.
Below are the big updates heading into Week 13:
1) Tua Tagovailoa will start over Ryan Fitzpatrick in a somewhat surprising move. Ryan Fitzpatrick was on some people's cash game radar this week as was DeVante Parker. Both of those players are no longer cash game viable. The move should solidify Myles Gaskin as an excellent cash game play this week as the Dolphins will lean on him against Cincinnati to setup the pass for Tua as they still try to ease him into the NFL.
2) Allen Robinson's knee injury that he suffered on Friday appears to be as the team said which was precautionary. Robinson is still an excellent cash game play on this slate.
3) We got a few questions on Chris Carson last night, he is not cash game viable, just want to make that crystal clear.
Strategy Update
The biggest decision on this board today continues to be what you're planning to do at the running back position. There are essentially four different types of builds this week.
Build 1 Most Popular: Dalvin Cook, James Robinson/Austin Ekeler, one of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Build 2: Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, one of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Build 3: Dalvin Cook, two of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Build 4: Derrick Henry, James Robinson/Austin Ekeler, one of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Build 5: Derrick Henry, two of Gaskin/Booker/Montgomery
Full Disclaimer:
I feel like this needs to be said. Dalvin Cook is going to be the more popular play, and in most models he rates out much higher. If you want to play it safe, go with Dalvin Cook in your lineup. Henry is the top player on my board, but I fully admit that I am in the minority across the industry here.
Lineup
Here is where I'm currently landing. The more that I've thought about it, the more I think I want to go with the two stud running backs in Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. Players such as Austin Ekeler and James Robinson have their own risks, and I don't like enough of the top end wide receivers to go with two of Booker/Montgomery/Gaskin. While I don't love Cook as much as some others, I still feel he is likely to top 100 yards and score a touchdown, but just don't feel he will have that 200 yard, 3 touchdown upside.
Essentially, this is a trade of James Robinson, T.J. Hockenson, and Cooper Kupp, for Dalvin Cook, Denzel Mims, and Anthony Firkser. Regarding Mims, he is establishing himself as the number one receiver in New York and the Jets need to continue to try to develop one of their lone bright spots on this team. Mims has topped 60 yards in each of his last three games, and has 23 targets over his last three games. The only thing he hasn't done is find the end-zone. Regarding Firkser, this is a punt play in the purest form. With no Jonnu Smith, Firkser becomes a value play on this slate only in the sense that there are no tight ends that are completely safe. Hockenson is the best tight end on this slate, but Cleveland has allowed four touchdowns in their last three games to opposing tight ends and if Firkser can find the end zone, he will pay off this lineup.
At the end of the day it is close between this lineup and the primary cash game lineup from Saturday, but this lineup comes in about 1.5 points higher, and feels a little bit safer with having Dalvin Cook in the lineup. Both are great plays and can be used for cash this week.
- QB Philip Rivers, IND, $7,000
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,000
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
- WR Allen Robinson, CHI, $6,900
- WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,500
- WR Denzel Mims, NYJ, $5,500
- TE Anthony Firkser, TEN, $4,600
- Flex RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $5,500
- TD Detroit Lions, $3,500
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Minnesota (vs Jacksonville) – 31.25 points
- Tennessee (vs Cleveland) – 29.5 points
- Seattle (vs NY Giants) – 28.25 points
- Las Vegas (at NY Jets) – 27.75 points
- Green Bay (vs Philadelphia) – 27.5 points
RECAP OF LAST WEEK
The Sunday Morning Update was huge last week as it changed the slate from being one that was likely very unprofitable to one that won all of my cash games last week.
What went right?
- Fading Dalvin Cook in the Sunday Morning Update, which allowed a switch of Cook, Waller, and Cole Beasley, to James Robinson, Travis Kelce, and Calvin Ridley.
- Taking Patrick Mahomes II at quarterback
- Wayne Gallman as a cheap running back found the end zone and topped 100 total yards
What went wrong?
- Having so much confidence in Brian Hill. The guy just was not productive, and ended up conceding the second half to Ito Smith.
- Calvin Ridley was disappointing based on his price. While he found the end zone he ended up with just 6 receptions for 50 yards and the touchdown.
- Cooper Kupp and the Rams offense in general struggled against the 49ers.
CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 13
Running Back Dilemma
The big question this week will be what to do at the running back position? With both Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook on the slate, it makes for a somewhat difficult decision heading into this week. It is incredibly difficult to fit both players in your lineup, but it seems necessary this week that at least one of them is in your lineup.
High-End Running Backs
The decision between Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook may end up being the key to winning this week. On paper, Cook is in a much better spot against the Jaguars who are allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the year. The Jaguars have been shredded the last two weeks by James Conner (89 yards on just 13 carries) and Nick Chubb (144 yards on 18 carries). The concern for Cook is whether he is slowing down as he is averaging just 3.6 yards-per-carry over his last three weeks scoring just one touchdown in those games. To make matters worse two of those games were in favorable matchups against the Panthers and Cowboys. Mike Zimmer came out this week and said that the team needs to be smart with his workload going forward as well which could limit his potential upside.
Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is $500 cheaper on FanDuel and is progressing upwards in terms of volume and workload. We have seen Henry have these late season emergences the past two seasons. Henry in his last two games has faced two good run defenses in Baltimore (although they were banged up on the defensive line) and Indianapolis (without DeForest Buckner). In those two games, Henry has ran for 311 yards and scored four touchdowns. The Browns on paper have a decent run defense, but it has largely been smoke and mirrors due to one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. They’ve allowed 84 yards rushing per game, but are allowing 4.2 yards-per-carry. Looking deeper into the Browns, the high-quality running backs have taken advantage of this matchup as James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, and James Conner all topped 100 yards this season. The Browns have had to close their facility eight times in the last month, and Sione Takataki and Myles Garrett both have been dealing with Covid, but expected to play this week.
Mid-Range
There’s not a lot to love at the mid-range this week other than James Robinson who continues to be underpriced on FanDuel. His price is starting to creep up, but it still remains at a very affordable $7,800. Robinson has been one of the bright spots for the Jaguars and looks to be a potential building block for this team as they look to rebuild into 2021. Robinson has topped 94 yards in each of his last five contests and has scored four touchdown in those five games. The matchup is a decent one as Minnesota’s weakness is along the defensive line as they lose Yannick Ngakoue and Danielle Hunter for the season, but the strength remains at the linebacker position with Erick Kendricks and safety Harrison Smith. This is a team that is allowing 105 yards rushing per game, so Robinson should have plenty of opportunity to top 90 yards once again.
Low-Range
David Montgomery once again is fantasy relevant largely due to the lack of options on this slate. The problem with Montgomery, is the inconsistency with this guy is so infuriating. Montgomery looked great last week topping 100 yards on just 11 carries, and adding in 5 receptions, but it was against a Packers defense that has been absolutely shredded on the ground dating back to Week 6. The good news for Montgomery is this week he gets another awful defense in Houston who are one of just two teams that are worse than Green Bay in stopping the run (Detroit being the other one). It’s not a pretty situation having to rely on Montgomery, but as we stand today, he is likely one of the top plays on this slate.
Devontae Booker facing the Jets will also get some love this week due to Josh Jacobs being injured and facing the Jets. However, if there is one unit that is still competing for the winless Jets it is the run defense led by Gregg Williams. Since Week 6, the Jets have allowed only one rushing touchdown and are holding opposing defenses to just 3.7 yards-per-carry. Linebacker Neville Hewitt has been a nice surprise for the Jets this season, and while they have not faced the most daunting schedules. The biggest issue the Jets will have is facing an offensive line as good as the Raiders this week.
Myles Gaskin is interesting this week largely due to the injuries and illnesses within Miami and the matchup facing Cincinnati. The Bengals are allowing 5.0 yards-per-carry on the season and have really struggled over the last two weeks stopping Wayne Gallman and Antonio Gibson. Also adding to Gaskin’s potential is his price, as he is just $5,500 which allows for plenty of savings that could allow you to spend up at other positions this week. When Gaskin has been healthy, he has seen the bulk of the carries, and factors into the receiving game as well as he has averaged 21.3 touches over his last three games.
Final Verdict: Derrick Henry, Myles Gaskin, and James Robinson. I have vowed not to play in the David Montgomery sweepstakes as the touches are too sporadic and while the matchup is a good one he is a player that I just can’t trust.
INJURY UNLOCKS OPPORTUNITY?
Jonnu Smith is out this week with a knee injury. This should open up significant value for Anthony Firkser who will become one of the better value play tight ends on this slate.
Josh Jacobs looks like he is going to miss this week. This opens up value for Devontae Booker against the Jets. The problem for Booker is that he has been incredibly inconsistent throughout his career. He has high upside as we’ve seen averaging 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry
Julio Jones is questionable with a hamstring injury and was only able to get a limited practice in on Friday after missing the first two practices of the week.
Todd Gurley is questionable with a knee injury, but looks like he should be good to go this week. If he is out, Ito Smith becomes somewhat intriguing as he took over the role in the second half from Brian Hill.
D’Andre Swift is questionable with an illness. He was cleared from the concussion protocol, but seems to be dealing with some post-concussion type syndrome. It seems unlikely that he would play without practicing, but this is a wait and see approach. Both Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson would become GPP plays due to the value if he was out.
Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida both look like they’ll miss this week. Myles Gaskin should get the start as he is activated off of IR. Gaskin is a great value play this week facing Cincinnati.
Will Fuller has been suspended and Randall Cobb was placed on Injured Reserve, leaving the Texans very thin at the wide receiver position. This should open up plenty of opportunity for Brandin Cooks this week and potentially Jordan Akins as a nice GPP and cash game play.
Irv Smith Jr. is out again this week, which makes Kyle Rudolph a great punt play at the tight end position. The Vikings will get Adam Thielen back, but Rudolph saw 8 targets last week
WEATHER CONCERN
No issues this week
KEY CASH CORE
With a deep dive at the running back position already, only two additional Cash Core plays. Brandin Cooks is also on this list, but tried to differentiate due to how obvious he is with being the only receiver that Houston has to consistently rely on.
Philip Rivers- $7,000
There are so many options at the quarterback position that it is difficult to figure out which path to go. At the top end, you have guys like Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson who you can expect them to be popular, but at the lower end you have this range of good plays that are all bunched together (Rivers, Carr, Goff, Trubisky, Fitzpatrick, Cousins).
The reasoning for Rivers is really simple, when taking a quarterback in this lower range on FanDuel, you want consistency and touchdown upside. Houston since Week 5 has allowed every quarterback except one to top 280 yards and that one was in terrible wind conditions in which Baker Mayfield threw for only 132 yards. The Texans have one of the worst secondaries in football ever since Gareon Conley was placed on Injured reserve as they now need to rely on Vernon Hargreaves and Phillip Gaines both who have struggled throughout their career.
Allen Robinson- $6,900
Expect Brandin Cooks on FanDuel to be one of the more popular plays this week at just $6,500, and while Cooks is definitely a good play, Robinson is the better play this week now that he has Mitchell Trubisky back as his starting quarterback. Robinson saw 13 targets last week, and is now averaging 11 targets per game in which Trubisky starts at quarterback this season. Detroit has allowed monster games to opposing wide receivers over the last few weeks as they have allowed three straight games with a receiver topping 95 yards.
LINEUPS
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 124.7)
- QB Philip Rivers, IND, $7,000
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,000
- RB James Robinson, JAX, $7,800
- WR Allen Robinson, CHI, $6,900
- WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,500
- WR Cooper Kupp, LAR, $6,600
- TE T.J. Hockenson, DET, $6,000
- Flex RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $5,500
- TD Detroit Lions, $3,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash+ Bears Stack +Henry/Cook- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 124.5)
- QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI, $6,900
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $10,000
- RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
- WR Allen Robinson, CHI, $6,900
- WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,500
- WR Michael Pittman, IND, $5,600
- TE Anthony Firkser, TEN, $4,600
- Flex RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $5,500
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,500
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) –FBG Optimal Lineup (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 134.7)
- QB Deshaun Watson, HOU, $8,200
- RB Myles Gaskin, MIA, $5,500
- RB David Montgomery, CHI, $6,200
- WR Jarvis Landry, CLE, $6,000
- WR Brandin Cooks, HOU, $6,500
- WR Robert Woods, LAR, $7,100
- TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN, $5,000
- Flex RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $10,500
- TD Miami Dolphins, $4,900
NEW FEATURE: PLAYER POOL
Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.
