Cracking FanDuel: Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Update as of 10:30 EST.

Not a lot of injury news anticipated this week. Julio Jones looks like he will miss, but Calvin Ridley is just too expensive and not ready to trust the volatile receiver even as great as he has been this year.

New Feature this Week

This week, I added a feature that outlines the cash game plays that show all the players, h-value, and projections on our slight and highlighting the criteria with green being my favorite cash game plays and yellow being players who should still be within cash game consideration.

Let me know your thoughts on this one via email knotts@footballguys.com or via Twitter

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Arizona (vs DET) 30.5 points

• Seattle (vs DAL) 30.5 points

• Indianapolis (vs NYJ) – 27.75 points

• New England (vs LVR)- 26.5 points

• Tenessee (at MIN) – 26 points

CASH GAME STRATEGY WEEK 2

Recovering after a horrendous week

Last week without question was one of the worst weeks.

Derrick Henry- dropped a wide-open screen pass for a touchdown and overall struggled
Davante Adams- Injured
Julio Jones- Injured
Ronald Jones II- Scored a touchdown early, fumbled, and then Leonard Fournette ran for over 100 yards

So how do we proceed from here? Far too often these types of weeks can lead to over-questioning and a lack of confidence heading into the future weeks. It is much easier said than done, but one piece of advice is to treat each week as an individual data point in a range of outcomes. A question that I get a lot is are the games still “beatable” and the answer there is yes, but like anything in small data sets you can get strange results in both directions. The best advice one can give is to adhere to proper bankroll management which is much easier said than done as very few people actually practice this properly.

The key is as difficult as it can be the game does not become harder after a bad week or easier after a good week even though sometimes it feels that way. That’s not to say you should re-evaluate your process, you should determine whether you made a bad process or it was just a bad outcome due to variance.

Injury Unlocks Opportunity?

• Christian McCaffrey will miss this week with an ankle injury leaving Mike Davis as the starting running back in Carolina. Davis is somewhat intriguing as he caught eight passes last week as he filled in for McCaffrey, but he is $6,000 as the sites reacted quickly. If he was cheaper, he would be in cash game consideration, but for now, in a somewhat difficult matchup against the Chargers, there’s not a ton to like there. The one player who could be interesting is Curtis Samuel if we hear reports that he will get time at running back which is the position he played in college.
  
• The Giants are a bit of a mess as Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard will both miss this game as both players were placed on Injured Reserve. To complicate matters the Giants signed Devonta Freeman this week and indicated they will have a split backfield of Dion Lewis and Devonta Freeman. With Saquon Barkley averaging only 1.8 yards per carry behind this offensive line, taking a running back who is in a split carry situation does not seem like the right move here. The one player who is intriguing for the Giants is Evan Engram who caught 6 passes for 65 yards last week.
• The 49ers will seemingly be without their entire first team offense as Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, George Kittle all who were injured last week and Deebo Samuel is not eligible to return until at least next week. Nick Mullens will start at quarterback with Jeff Wilson and Jerrick McKinnon splitting carries at running back and Jordan Reed getting the start once again at tight end. While Nick Mullens and the running backs are largely GPP plays (prefer Wilson over McKinnon due to the historical Red Zone work), Jordan Reed is a player that we can potentially consider for cash and cash plus contests (small GPP’s, triple ups, 5x contests, etc). Brandon Aiyuk is interesting at just $4,800 and could be the favorite target for Mullens in a GPP format along with Kendrick Bourne.
  
• Denver will be without Drew Lock, Phillip Lindsay, and Courtland Sutton leaving the Broncos very limited with Jeff Driskel in a tough matchup against a tough Tampa Bay defense. While Melvin Gordon has been a bit sneaky in the industry, it is not a cash game consideration based on how good Tampa Bay has been against the run over the last few seasons. If there is a player that you’re interested in this game it would be K.J. Hamler had seven targets last week and is minimum price.
  
• The Raiders are banged up as Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Bryan Edwards are all questionable this week, while Henry Ruggs is out. Dr. Jene Bramel of Footballguys posted that he believes that here is concern for Jacobs that there could be a reduced workload with his hip injury. Waller should play, and is a great play this week at the tight end position.
  

• A.J. Brown looks like he will miss once again this week as he is dealing with a knee injury. While the Titans offense looked great last week, most of that went to Jonnu Smith who is in play once again as while Corey Davis scored a touchdown, he was not heavily involved. Derrick Henry also struggled last week, but all of these players are in good spots and Adam Humphries could be a sleeper out of the slot, but is better suited to full PPR sites.

KEY CASH CORE

Miles Sanders- $7,400

This rushing attack is turning into a bell-cow situation as Miles Sanders had 23 touches last week against the Rams and could have had more as he only caught three of his seven targets. His price is too cheap at just $7,400 to get a running back who is going to touch the ball 20-25 times in this Eagles offense that is extremely limited due to injuries. Sanders gets the benefit of going up against the Bengals run defense that is allowing 179 rushing yards per game and have allowed four rushing touchdowns this season. Sanders will be extremely popular this week, but is a must play this week.

Jonathan Taylor- $6,700

Jonathan Taylor is simply underpriced after a heavy Week 2 workload. Taylor touched the ball 28 times last week against the Vikings showing that he will be the primary running back this season with Marlon Mack being lost for the season. The Jets are allowing 113 yards per game rushing as they were shredded last week by the 49ers who ran for 181 yards last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- $3,800

This one is another one that is a bit obvious as the Buccaneers are simply just underpriced. Tampa gets the benefit of facing a Denver team that we touched on a bit earlier which is missing Drew Lock, Phillip Lindsay and Courtland Sutton. Jeff Driskel will start, and the weakness for Tampa Bay is the secondary, but it is unlikely that Driskel is capable of taking advantage of it.

Lineups

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 140.5)

• QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,400
• RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $6,700
• RB Jerrick McKinnon, SF, $5,700
• WR- DeAndre Hopkins, ARI, $8,500
• WR Adam Thielen, MIN, $7,200
• WR Allen Robinson, CHI, $6,900
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, 5,200
• Flex RB- Miles Sanders, PHI, $7,400
• TD Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $3,800

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – ALTERNATIVE Fade Arizona Option (DD PROJECTED POINTS = 139.6)

• QB Cam Newton, NE, $7,700
• RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $6,700
• RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $7,400
• WR- Amari Cooper, DAL, $7,000
• WR Adam Thielen, MIN, $7,200
• WR Allen Robinson, CHI, $6,900
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, 5,200
• Flex RB- Nick Chubb, CLE, $7,800
• TD Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $3,800

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – CASH+ ARI Stack(DD PROJECTED POINTS = 139.8)

• QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,400
• RB Jonathan Taylor, IND, $6,700
• RB Kenyan Drake, ARI, $6,500
• WR- DeAndre Hopkins, ARI, $8,500
• WR DK Metcalf, SEA, $6,500
• WR Allen Robinson, CHI, $6,900
• TE Dallas Goedert, PHI, 5,200
• Flex RB- Miles Sanders, PHI, $7,400
• TD Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $3,800

New Feature: Player Pool

Projected points are static as of Saturday morning and will not be updated throughout the weekend. Green means great cash game play, yellow means should be in consideration in cash game lineups.