Bottom 5 Passing Matchups
To view all of our Week 1 Matchup content, please see the links below:
Top 5 Passing Matchups Week 1
Bottom 5 Passing Matchups Week 1
Top 5 Rushing Matchups Week 1
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups Week 1
Rushing Matchup Chart Week 1
Passing Matchup Chart Week 1
Miami Dolphins Passing Offense vs New England
The Dolphins seem to have no Week 1 controversy at quarterback: they’re officially opening the year with 37-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Fitzpatrick may be the more shrewd play than rookie Tua Tagovailoa, and he did enjoy a solid second half of 2019. The good news for the Dolphins is that they get second-year player Preston Williams back after losing him to a torn ACL early in 2019 after showing tremendous promise in his rookie campaign. The Dolphins have talent with Williams pairing with DeVante Parker along with an athletic tight end in Mike Gesicki, they will be able to exploit matchups from time to time, but will be in for a tremendous test this week.
Fitzpatrick will have the tough test of going up against one of the best exempt from Bill Belichick’s defensive rebuild and remains the league’s best. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore is the NFL’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year; the league hasn’t seen a shutdown cornerback on this level since Darrelle Revis’ prime. He’s supported by Jason and McCourty and Devin McCourty, both of whom remain difference-makers in the passing game, as well as rising star nickel man J.C. Jackson. It’s worth noting that DeVante Parker rolled over Gilmore for most of his 137 yards when these teams faced off in Week 17 of last year. But every rule has an exception; these Patriots had throttled the attacks of the Ravens, Texans, and Chiefs just before that aberration. And Parker won’t have as much support this time out, with two fellow wideouts (Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns) opting out of the season. The New England front seven may be evolving, but the secondary still has that dominant 2019 feel .
Cleveland Browns Passing Offense vs Baltimore
Baker Mayfield and the Browns passing offense look to rebound after being a massive disappointment in 2019. The team still has tremendous talent with Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Kareem Hunt returning from last season and the Browns added a consistent receiving threat at the tight end position in Austin Hooper who should make an immediate impact which is something that they did not have last season. The big question continues to be Mayfield and the inconsistency in his play as too many untimely interceptions and red zone inefficiency led to a disappointing year in 2019.
The Ravens cut bait on Earl Thomas last month after a handful of problematic acts, but it might not affect their secondary as much as expected. This is a deep, talented secondary, one that can smother entire pass games with just its top three cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is among the league’s best in press coverage and attacking the ball, while Jimmy Smith remains solid across the field and Marlon Humphrey dominates both outside and in the slot. The team has talked up the idea of the big, rangy Smith seeing time in Thomas’ free safety spot, which could bridge the gap and still keep a handful of shutdown cover men on the field. It helps that the pass rush remains imposing, with Matt Judon and Calais Campbell leading the way against a still-rebuilding Browns line. All told, it’s not an ideal opener for Baker Mayfield in his attempt to move on from a rough 2019. Possession man Jarvis Landry is still recovering from hip surgery and no sure thing to play big snaps Sunday, while Odell Beckham Jr remains a wild card. New coach Kevin Stefanski will look to minimize Mayfield’s weaknesses, particularly in perilous matchups like this one.
New York Jets Passing Offense vs Buffalo
The Jets’ Sam Darnold closed a shaky 2019 with a fantastic stretch of play, and there’s still reason to be excited about the 23-year-old signal-caller however the options that the Jets have to throw the ball continue to be limited. The team lost Robbie Anderson leaving Jamison Crowder as the only receiver on the team with more than 36 receptions last season. To make matters worse, Crowder is questionable with a hamstring injury and Breshad Perriman/Denzel Mims will be less than 100%.
While there is still promise for Sam Darnold a date with Buffalo’s stingy pass defense Week 1 likely wouldn’t have been his choice. The Bills run a bend-don’t-break scheme that’s zone-heavy, giving up space underneath but clamping down hard on the deep ball. They have the ideal press-man dominator for the system in Tre’Davious White, who just re-upped last week with a well-deserved contract. White is a true shutdown presence, grading out near the top of the league since 2017 - and that hasn’t been lost on the Jets. Last year, Robby Anderson spent most of their two meetings in White’s shadow coverage, totaling all of 41 yards on 6 receptions. Anderson is far from the only playmaking No. 1 wideout to be erased by White, which doesn’t bode well for newcomer Breshad Perriman. There’s also the elite safety duo of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde to contend with on the back end, as well as a strong, deep rotational pass rush. Darnold and his new-look receiving corps will need to push their limits to make plays against one of football’s stingiest units.
Washington Passing Offense vs Philadelphia
The Washington Football Team will once again roll out second-year Dwayne Haskins who looked shaky in his rookie campaign and will now be required to learn a new system under coach Ron Rivera. Haskins will need to make an immediate imapact as Rivera has brought in Kyle Allen who he is all too familiar with Ron Rivera's system. Washington did not do Haskins any favors in the offseason as they continue to have one of the weakest wide receiving groups in football. While Terry McLaurin has promise, outside of him there is a void as they will rely on Steven Sims Jr and Dontrelle Inman to make an immediate impact along with rookie Antonio Gibson who played wide receiver at Memphis last year.
Week 1 looks like tough sledding to get anything kick-started for Washington. The Eagles pass defense has been a weakpoint the past few seasons, but retooled its secondary this offseason with a pair of savvy moves. The biggest move is the addition of Darius Slay who brings a history of shutdown skill on the outside and while he may not be the shut down corner he once was he is still incredibly talented to be relied on as a number one receiver. The other big addition that the Eagles made was adding Nickell Robey-Coleman to the slot position which brings a physical presence which should give Washington difficulty with anything underneath. Given the Eagles’ potent pass rush, those two additions alone could make this a unit to fear right away. It certainly seems unlikely Haskins and the Washington receivers are prepared to break things up in Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals Passing Offense vs Los Angeles Chargers
The Bengals have a new look at the passing attack after a horrendous 2019 season with a mixture of Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley. The team has moved on from Dalton and drafted Joe Burrow to lead the charge along with the return of A.J. Green who missed all of last season due to injury. There is talent on this Bengals receiving group with Green, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate and the speedster John Ross that can give defenses matchup issues but the real question will be Burrow who played in one of the most talented offenses we have seen in recent college football history sporting three potential first-round wide receivers and the best offensive line in college football last season.
The Chargers simply can’t escape the annual injury bug, but they’ll likely bounce back quickly (again). Prized young safety Derwin James has been lost for the year, which is no small inconvenience. James is dynamic in coverage and as a blitzer, and his loss will certainly be felt. Still, this is a deep, talented group that’s often been forced to withstand big injuries. The Chargers still boast playmakers all over the defense, from pass rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III to cornerbacks Casey Hayward and Desmond King. It’s a tough assignment for any passer, let alone a rookie whose offseason work was limited, so Joe Burrow has his work cut out. With A.J. Green hobbled by a hamstring injury from camp - and 21 months removed from his last game action - Bengals coach Zac Taylor would be wise to ease his youngster into the NFL. It’s fair to expect a steady diet of short, safe throws into the slots and flats, mingled with the typical bumps and follies of a rookie facing one of the league’s best pass units.
Methodology: Worst matchup does not mean the players who are projected for the least amount of points. We try to balance the impact that the defense will have on the offense as we start with a baseline for each team and try to determine which defenses will have the biggest impact on the offense. More often than not, bad offenses will show up on the worst matchups and good offenses will show up on the top matchups but occasionally you will have a scenario where the top offense is facing the top defense therefore making it a difficult matchup for that offense.
You should always start elite players even if they are in one of the more difficult matchups of the week.
