One of my favorite offseason rituals is the MFL10 of Death, now in its seventh annual incarnation. I ran away with the 2016 title with some help from the Vikings defense and Kenny Britt but haven’t sniffed first place since. This group is very difficult to get any advantage on and it includes 3-time champ Shawn Siegele, Evan Silva, Pat Thorman, Rich Hribar, JJ Zachariason, Mike Beers, Mike Clay, Scott Barrett, Rumford Johnny, Denny Carter, and Ryan Forbes. I would have to create a risk/reward roster build and pick strategy to have a chance.
Some redraft players try to play it safe so they can maximize their chances of getting into the playoffs, because then luck plays a larger role than it does over the course of a fantasy regular season. Best ball doesn’t reward “safe” drafting. Second and third places often come with a prize, but one that is a fraction of first place, and in a bragging rights league like this, second and third are meaningless other than giving you a few more decisions that haunt your offseason. The theme is:
Go Big or Go Home
1. Build in upside at *every* position, or at least as many as possible - This means caring about defense (and kicker if your league includes that position). Even if you don’t take a top defense, then include three in your roster build to try to catch the surprise strong fantasy defense and some fluke big weeks from lesser defenses. If you don’t take a quarterback early, then make sure to take quarterback that have more variance and a higher weekly ceiling later. Tight end should be like a combination of quarterback and defense strategy, where you either take one early, or take three with an emphasis on later tight ends with higher top end range of outcomes.
2. Tolerate, even embrace risk - Look for players who are valued below their typical production level because of recency bias due to injury. Be open to rookies or players who otherwise come with more unknown to counterbalance the high ceiling you’re looking for. This necessarily will result in you taking players with the ability to vastly outproduce draft slot.
3. Emphasize weekly ceiling - Average points per game and total points on the season mask the amount of variance in a player’s scoring profile. Some players/teams crush weak competition and get stifled by strong competition. That is better for your best ball team than consistency. Examine game logs and consider tallying top 5 finishes at QB/TE and top 10 finishes at RB/WR as a supplement to rankings.
4. Build in floor later - Players that are more consistent (slot receivers, receiving running backs) or players that have more guaranteed volume but a lower season-long ceiling are good for covering byes/injuries and keeping your best ball team afloat through rough seas, but they should be targeted later in your draft. If you can get a few “firewall” players at RB/WR later, it allows you to take riskier boom/bust players early in your draft that can put you over the top.
5. Be willing to reach for players - One of the reasons I love this league is that we always draft before training camp. ADP is still very much out of line with conventional wisdom at this point in the league calendar. Especially in a group like this, you need to draft with conviction. Waiting on players you like just because ADP dictates they will be there later can backfire. Reaches turn into values and values turn into reaches as soon as the season starts. If your instincts tell you a player is worth a pick in the 10th or higher even though they are lasting until the 12th or later, just take them in the 10th round.
Having drafted with this group for six years going into this, I felt comfortable enough with the league tendencies to create a plan by position once I knew my draft slot was 3rd.
Quarterback: The waiting at quarterback is absurd but the top options are worth more than ever. Drawing the #3 slot, I knew I was going to target Jackson/Mahomes at 2.10 or 3.3 and likely have my pick of them.
Running Back: Don’t wait to get top options. This group is willing to reach for running backs early, and this has changed over the years. In early MFL10 of death drafts, wide receiver would dry up earlier than in a typical draft.
Wide Receiver: With the deepest wide receiver pool ever, I could break ties in favor of non-wide receivers early, knowing that I could mix boom/bust early picks with firewall high floor later picks.
Tight End: I hoped to get George Kittle or Travis Kelce at 2.10, but was prepared to get creative, prioritizing ceiling if one didn’t last that long.
Defense: This group waits longer than any best ball draft I’ve done, so I expected to be able to get a top option at the 14/15 turn.
1.3: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL - This was an easy pick. Elliott’s weekly ceiling should be high with multi-touchdown potential, and he is ultradurable. I don’t feel the need to handcuff him to Tony Pollard unless the price is right.
2.10: Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL - The wide receivers and running backs on the board looked pretty level to me at 2.10. The dream of getting George Kittle or Travis Kelce to anchor my tight ends evaporated at 2.6 and 2.7. Jackson became the easy pick at that point. He was so far ahead of the pack at quarterback last year that combining the #2 (Deshaun Watson) and #3 (Dak Prescott) quarterbacks through Week 16 would have only outscored Jackson by 3 points, and that’s with Jackson taking a zero for his bye. So there’s a good chance that this will lock in top scoring at quarterback for my team as long as no one is willing to take two top six quarterbacks and even then I might still be #1. The fear of falling behind at running back is lessened by having Elliott as my #1 and the fear of falling behind at wide receiver is lessened by the unprecedented depth at the position this year.
3.3: Melvin Gordon, RB, DEN - I considered Adam Thielen to anchor my wide receivers here, but expected to do a roster build with eight wide receivers, so that gave me more room to rely on quantity over quality. Gordon was the RB6 over the second half of the season last year and figures to be even more involved in the passing game since he left Austin Ekeler in Los Angeles. He looks like one of the most underrated players in the RB2 tier this year.
4.10: Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA - Time to get some wide receivers. Lockett was WR5 last year before his injury in Week 10. His weekly and season long upside speaks for itself and his injury risk is not difficult to hedge in best ball. The other wide receiver I considered here was T.Y. Hilton…
5.3: T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND - Hilton is a solid WR1 when he is healthy and has at least decent quarterback play. He’ll gain Philip Rivers this year and missed only four games in seven years going into 2019. I would have also been happy with D.J. Chark or DeVante Parker - both went after this pick.
6.10: A.J. Green, WR, CIN - I continue to be amazed at how far Green falls in drafts. He wasn’t available this late in some drafts last year even though he was coming into the season with a serious ankle injury. Perhaps he will have another injury before the season starts, maybe his body is breaking down, but best ball is the perfect format to take this kind of chance because late picks can build in floor in case of injury. Green also gets a quarterback upgrade here. Marquise Brown and Rob Gronkowski were other considerations here. This pick locked in an eight wide receiver roster build because all of my top three wide receivers were limited by injuries last year.
7.3: Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR - It was time to start building my tight end group. I was hoping for Rob Gronkowski’s weekly touchdown upside here, but Higbee was a fine alternative after his elite TE1 run in December last year. He could blend back into the pass offense as a complementary piece this year, but again, best ball helps lower the cost of that risk by automatically scoring options that are higher during the season. At this point, a three tight end roster build looked optimal to spread out risk. If Higbee hadn’t been there, the rest of the tight ends looked similar enough to probably cause me to pivot to Will Fuller/Brandin Cooks, or Cam Akers.
8.10: Kerryon Johnson, RB, DET - This was a bit of a luxury pick, but I still believe in Johnson. He’ll split with D’Andre Swift (who went three rounds earlier at 5.12). I hope it allows him to stay healthy this year. The plan here is catching lightning in a bottle at times as a flex/bye/injury option. I considered Emmanuel Sanders and Sammy Watkins to bolster my wide receiver group, but expected one of them to be there at 9.3.
9.3: Hayden Hurst, TE, ATL - Neither of the wide receivers were there, so it was time to pivot to another upside tight end. Hurst is largely unproven, but the Falcons will start him in a role that created the TE1 in all of fantasy football for a stretch last year. Hurst’s ability to stay healthy and productive under a high snap load is still unproven, so this cemented a three tight end build, although the injury frequency at the position probably necessitated it anyway. Between Higbee and Hurst, I see two tight ends taken outside of the top five with top five upside. Mike Gesicki also would have fit here.
10.10: Nyheim Hines, RB, IND - At this point in the draft, I threw ADP out the window and started targeting “my guys”. Hines gains the quarterback who made Austin Ekeler into a receiving running back star and the team has already said Hines should be excited to work with Philip Rivers. Even without Rivers, Hines had seven games of at least eight PPR points, so he provides a bye/injury floor RB4, but also big play and reception spree upside. I didn’t consider anyone else here, I wanted to lock in Hines as my RB4.
11.3: Curtis Samuel, WR, CAR - Samuel vastly outplayed his stats last year and the hope is that Joe Brady’s offense piloted by Teddy Bridgewater will turn more of his wins against coverage into production. Even though his 2019 was considered disappointing, he still had seven PPR games of 14 or more points, so this is a good get as my WR4 this late. He was my target with this pick (or Robby Anderson who went two picks earlier) as it was time to get back to work on my wide receiver group.
12.10: Duke Johnson Jr, RB, HOU - I wasn’t expecting Johnson to still be available this late. He had seven double digit games last year and is playing behind David Johnson, which creates a lot of injury upside. Getting Johnson as my RB5 insured that I only needed to spend five roster spots at the position. Randall Cobb would have been the pick if Johnson hadn’t been there.
13.3: Randall Cobb, WR, HOU - Cobb was one of the picks I had in pen at the 12/13 turn before the draft (Elliott, quarterback at 2-3 turn, Hines at 10/11 turn were a few others). He stayed healthy last year and was signed to a big contract with the Texans. Deshaun Watson should rely on him from the slot and he’s arguably the most durable of Houston’s top three receivers. Even if all he does is reproduce last year’s stats with Dallas, he’ll contribute 5-7 scoring weeks to my wide receiver group. I have no idea why the fantasy community is underrating him.
14.10: Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN - This one felt like a gift. I get that this group fades quarterback but Tannehill was a top five scorer once he took over and he went for 27 or more points in half of his 10 starts. If Lamar Jackson gets hurt, my season isn’t over and Tannehill gets Cincinnati during Jackson’s bye week!
15.3: Pittsburgh Steelers DEF - This pick made it easier to do a roster build with only two defenses, freeing up a pick to get both eight wide receivers and five tight ends. The Steelers defense should be even better this year with Ben Roethlisberger hopefully giving them better game scripts. Devin Bush could be scary good in year two. The Steelers would be #1 in my defense rankings, they were a top 100 overall scorer in this format that awards/deducts for points allowed, and they only fell below eight points twice last year, which meant I could carry only two defenses and wait on my second one.
16.10: Cole Beasley, WR, BUF - Obviously wide receiver was going to be a focus from here on out and I was glad to see Beasley there. He started riffing with Josh Allen in the second half of the year. While his stats and peaks should be down with Stefon Diggs widening the Buffalo target tree, Beasley should still contribute at least 3-5 scoring weeks.
17.3: Tyrell Williams, WR, LV - This was one of the most difficult picks of the draft. The Chiefs and Saints defenses - both in my top 10 - were still there - as were Williams and Steven Sims Jr, both worthy wide receiver picks. I calculated that there were enough defenses left to still get an acceptable #2 at the 18/19 turn, and that whichever defense I picked was still unlikely to eclipse the Steelers more than a third of the time. Sims might have been the right pick in hindsight, but Williams hot start to the season before injury, endorsement in the offseason by the franchise by keeping him at an 11 million dollar price tag, penchant for scoring touchdowns, and clear starter role gave him the edge. Williams had four straight weeks that would score in most best ball lineups to open the season, and four more after he returned despite playing with a foot injury. Getting Samuel, Cobb, Beasley, and Williams as my WR4-7 after waiting until the 11th to start my second wave of receivers, while still building in a high ceiling at QB2 and DEF was basically a best case scenario.
18.10: Green Bay Packers DEF - This was the last defense I felt good about so I avoided paying too much of a cost for making sure I grabbed Tyrell Williams as my WR7. Green Bay was in double digits 9 out of the 15 games they played between Weeks 1-16 and they shouldn’t drop off much if at all this year.
19.3: Alshon Jeffery, WR, PHI - Since I felt good about covering the injury potential to my top three receivers with my WR4-7 picks, I went for a luxury pick in the 19th. Jeffery might not even play until the middle of the season, but we know he can play when he’s healthy. Even if that’s just a few weeks, that makes him more likely to contribute than the other wide receivers available unless my wide receivers crash and burn, and I’m not winning if that happens anyway.
20.10: Darren Fells, TE, HOU - I got nervous as my TE3 candidates starting going off of the board after I took Jeffery. Kyle Rudolph, Dawson Knox, Dan Arnold, Tyler Eifert… but Fells lasted until the 238th pick. The Texans brought him back, he’s one of Watson’s favorite red zone targets, and he had five double digit scoring games last year, including three of 16 or more. If one of Hurst or Higbee busts, Fells could save my bacon for a few weeks here and there.
